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Current Status as at: 15 January 2019
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The end of 2018 and start of 2019 has seen some minor rain events, increasing inflows into the South Island lakes. This has resulted in storage levels increasing over the Christmas/New Year period, and storage is now around average for this time of year.
Over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage due to hydro storage to remain low (though, in the unlikely event of multiple equipment failures the situation could deteriorate). The risk of shortage in the following 2-3 months is largely dependent on hydro-catchment inflows. The Risk Meter is currently set to normal.
In the next two weeks we will be preparing a new set of Hydro Risk Curves that will incorporate a new demand forecast, and account for the impact, if any, of the upcoming Pohokura Gas Field outage. We are also working on the 2019 Annual Security of Supply Assessment, which we plan to send out in draft form for industry comment in early February, with the final version to be published later in the month.
Some of you may have noticed the increase in HRCs from 2018 to 2019, which has prompted a few queries. In summary, the increase is due to changes in four main assumptions:
- Increase in demand due to Tiwai starting their 4th potline
- Pushing out the planned commissioning date of Junction Road generator to mid-2020 (it was originally planned for this year)
- Thermal generator outages early in 2019
- Exclusion of Tekapo contingent storage
Finally, a reminder we are currently seeking comments on the Draft Security of Supply Forecasting and Information Policy, comments on the draft close at 5pm on the 4 February 2019.
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Aggregate New Zealand storage increased over the last week and is at 66% of total storage, this is below the historical average (90% of average) for this time of the year.
Weekly hydro generation over the last 12 months has ranged between 54% and 72% of total generation. Last week hydro generation contributed 65% of total generation.
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Controlled storage remains below average on the New Zealand and South Island hydro risk curves.
Inflows into Lake Taupo over the last week were lower than the historical average for the time of the year and there was a decrease in North Island storage.
South Island inflows were higher than the historical average over the last week and storage levels have increased.
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Generation from non hydro sources are expected to remain at current levels.
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New Zealand electricity usage is about average for this time of the year.
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There was a net HVDC energy transfer to the North Island of 63 GWh last week.
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The spot price, based on available final and interim prices, has averaged $132 per MWh over the last two weeks, this is higher than prices experienced this time last year.
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We periodically update the base HRC data curves and the Simulated Storage Trajectory Curves. The updated files for these are available on the Hydro Risk Curve page.
| Data |
Last Updated |
| Hydro Risk Curve Data File and Input Assumptions |
10 December 2018 |
| Simulated Storage Trajectories and Assumptions |
10 December 2018 |
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The next scheduled weekly Security of Supply Report is due Tuesday 22 January 2019.
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