“Our effort is to make sure that the Iranian people get control of their capital, and it becomes a nation that is normal and is not conducting terror campaigns that are unrivaled any place else in the world.”

- U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking to reporters while in Saudi Arabia

Anti-Iran summit: The Trump administration will host a conference in Warsaw on February 13 and 14 with the agenda of exploring how to combat Iran’s influence in the Middle East (Fox News). In response to the summit, the Iranian government summoned the Polish charge d’affaires and canceled a Polish film festival set to start this month in Tehran (AP). Iranian government officials, including the foreign minister, condemned the conference and tweeted photos of the 100,000 Polish refugees hosted by Iran during World War II (Reuters). The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement: “In our view, the international community has the right to discuss various regional and global issues, and Poland—to co-organize a conference, whose goal is to develop a platform for actions promoting stability and prosperity in the Middle East region.” The hashtag #WeSupportPolandSummit is becoming popular on Twitter, although a digital forensics expert said it was likely bots or a trolling factory (Twitter). After the U.S. Secretary of State visited eight countries in the Middle East in one week, it’s unclear whether the region’s governments will band together to combat Iranian influence (New York Times). Analysts and officials told the New York Times, “It will be difficult for the Arab nations to work closely together on anti-Iran policies because of the complexity of relationships in the region.” On the same note, the U.S. government has had trouble defining its own anti-Iran policy other than re-imposing sanctions.

Failure to launch: After the Trump administration raised a ruckus about a satellite launch by Iran, the Safir carrier rocket did not reach orbit (New York Times). Last week, the U.S. Secretary of State warned Iran not to engage in “provocative” satellite launches and to “cease all activities related to ballistic missiles in order to avoid deeper economic and diplomatic isolation” (Washington Post). Mike Pompeo was referring to three rockets known as Space Launch Vehicles (SLVs), which use technology that is “virtually identical” to what is built into intercontinental ballistic missiles. A number of European countries, as well as the United States and Israel, criticized such Iranian missile tests in the past. The launches do not violate any United Nations Security Council resolution.

Israel admits to bombing Syria: After years of ambiguity over Israel’s involvement, the country’s prime minister admitted that Israeli forces bombed weapons warehouses in Syria (New York Times). Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel hit Hezbollah and Iranian targets “hundreds of times.” He added that on Sunday, Israel’s air force “attacked Iranian warehouses with Iranian weapons at the international airport in Damascus.” The Iranian foreign ministry denied the claims as “baseless and false” (Ynet). Satellite images show the extent of the damage caused by Israeli strikes (Haaretz). Speaking in Tel Aviv, the chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces gave a final interview to the New York Times before retiring. On Iran’s involvement in Syria, Lieutenant General Gadi Eisenkot said, “We have complete intelligence superiority in this area. We enjoy complete aerial superiority. We have strong deterrence and we have the justification to act.” Responding to Netanyahu’s comments, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said that it would protect its military advisors in Syria (Al-Monitor).

A report by the Israeli think tank, the Institute for National Security Studies, said that in a worst case scenario, “Israel may need to invade Iran to stop its entrenchment in Syria.” (Jerusalem Post)
 

Zarif in Iraq: Less than a week after the U.S. secretary of state was in Iraq, the Iranian foreign minister and a delegation of more than fifty companies arrived in Baghdad (Wall Street Journal). The visit was meant to not only expand trade and energy ties, but to boost relations between the two countries. Mohammad Javad Zarif met with representatives from Iraq’s religious minorities, expressing a desire to deepen ties between Tehran and Baghdad (IranWire). He also met with senior Iraqi figures including President Barham Salih, Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi, Speaker Mohammed al-Halbusi, as well as party leaders Ammar Hakim and Ayad Allawi and Hadi al-Ameri, and the Popular Mobilization Units commander (Al-Monitor). Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will visit Iraq in March (Mehr News Agency).

War with Iran? According to the Wall Street Journal, U.S. President Donald Trump’s National Security Council asked the Pentagon in 2018 to provide military options for attacking Iran. On a separate occasion, Trump asked then-Defense Secretary James Mattis why the U.S. did not consider sinking Iranian boats in the Persian Gulf (Axios). With better reason than ever before, senior Pentagon officials are concerned that Trump’s national security advisor could prompt a conflict with Iran (New York Times). It’s worth noting that the Trump administration conducted a preliminary internal assessment of its Iran “maximum pressure” policy this month and determined that it’s not working (Al-Monitor).

Press TV journalist arrested: An American journalist working for Iranian state media’s English language channel Press TV was arrested at a U.S. airport (PressTV). Marziyeh Hashemi, born Melanie Franklin, was arrested at St. Louis Lambert International Airport in Missouri on unspecified charges. Press TV claims Hashemi is a Muslim convert who has been residing in Iran for a number of years. The channel also claimed that her hijab was “forcibly removed” and she was “offered only pork” to eat. The Iranian foreign minister called on Hashemi to be released and said that her detention is “highly political” (CNN). Zarif said, “The misbehavior of the U.S. government indicates that the U.S. does not abide by any principles protecting rights of those criticizing the system and is now turned to a dangerous country for reporters.” Press TV said that Hashemi will appear in court today, but did not elaborate (AP). The Committee to Protect Journalists “expressed concern” about Hashemi’s detention.

Forty years ago this week, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi left Iran for the final time, which led to the success of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Here’s an overview from the AP.

The Shah of Iran modernized his nation, but vacillated in crisis (AP).

A snapshot from The Guardian archive: Frenzied rejoicing in Iran as Shah leaves.

Narges Mohammadi and Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe (courtesy photo given to Atlantic Council)

Hunger strike successful: An imprisoned British-Iranian mother and a prominent rights activist finished their three-day hunger strike to protest being denied medical treatment. After ending their hunger strike, Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and Narges Mohammadi were granted permission to seek treatment (Evening Standard). Richard Ratcliffe, Nazanin’s husband, said, “It does not feel a strike of defiance, but of despair, that no one can do anything” (Independent). He also said that that prison guards had pushed Zaghari-Ratcliffe to spy on the United Kingdom in return for her freedom (CNN). The Iranian ambassador to the U.K. said on Twitter that Ratcliffe’s campaign work was reducing the chances of his wife’s freedom (The Guardian). This prompted angry responses by prominent journalists, analysts, and supporters of the Free Nazanin campaign. The United Nations called on Tehran to give the two women urgent medical care and to release them immediately (CHRI).

Here’s why prisoners are going on hunger strike in Iran (Atlantic Council).

Vet said to not be a spy: The family of a U.S. Navy veteran held in Iran since July 2018 claims that he had traveled there with a valid visa and is not a spy (New York Times). Michael R. White been to the country “five or six times” to visit his Iranian girlfriend.