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With a lack of crystal ball to predict the future, we’ve compiled the next best thing. Promentor summarizes available commentary and analysis to present to you our predictions for the economy in 2019.
Straight off the bat - housing. Investment banking company Morgan Stanley touted housing as an essential theme determining the course of our economy in 2019. Watching like a hawk, Morgan Stanley’s most recent modelling points to price declines of 10 to 15 per cent.[1] This would mark the biggest downturn since the 1980’s. Matched with Australia’s historically low household savings rate, just 1 per cent, there isn’t much room to move in the economy if households choose to refocus on paying down debt.[2]
Another note of caution comes from the ABC, who predict a volatile year for the Australian share market that is met with a stable second half. Amid the ongoing uncertainty of Brexit, concern about interest rates rising too quickly in the United States and an expected slowdown in global economic growth, experts forecast a bumpy ride for the ASX.[3] The unresolved US-China trade war adds to the economic risk the local and international stock markets face in 2019.[4]
2019 will be further defined by its politics. With both a state election in NSW and federal election on the cards, this will be sure to have an impact on Australia’s economic performance.[5] It may be too early to tell whether this effect will be positive or negative, but it will certainly cause disturbances across the markets.
The RBA recently published a positive economic forecast for Australia in 2019, but this has been met with criticism. For example, The Guardian noted that investors are selling Australian dollars and buying government bonds because they don’t trust the RBA’s predictions for growth and wages.[6] Proceeding with caution in 2019 is recommended, as forecasts for the Australian economy in 2019 are conflicting.
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With a new year comes personal, business and economic doubt. Here are some helpful resources on navigating this uncertainty.
If You’re About to Take a New Job, Should You Consider Your Boss’s Counteroffer?
You finally decide to start looking for a new job. You go through a lengthy search process, you’re presented with an enticing career opportunity, and get an offer you’re fully prepared to accept. But when you tell your current employer you’re planning to leave, they surprise you with a counteroffer. And you’re left with a question you thought you had already answered: Should you stay, or should you go? Kelly O.Kay and Michael Cullen of Harvard Business Review give us some helpful insight into approaching this tricky, yet common, situation. more
Three Solutions to Watch in 2019
Solutions are the technology tools we have developed to help our clients analyze, benchmark, and use data in new ways. Over the past ten years, we’ve developed a range of solutions across industries and business functions, and as we start 2019, we believe that three of them may be particularly relevant to clients this year. From agile organizations to cybersecurity to retail channel planning, these solutions can provide insights that help our clients make more informed decisions. Mckinsey lay out their go-to technology tools in 2019 to help clients make more informed decisions. more
The Key Risks and Uncertainties of 2019
Forbes’ contributors Simon Flowers and Wood Mackenzie provide a sobering resource on global risks and uncertainties in the new year. Keep in mind when planning and executing ventures in 2019. more
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The summer drought has hit our consumers hard, with ramped up lamb prices taking their toll. Controversy around mismanagement of the Murray-Darling Basin is ever-present and Australia’s banks and housing prices go through a tumultuous time.
Murray-Darling Basin Royal Commission slams authority for ‘gross maladministration’... more
Banking industry braces for the ‘live possibility’ the royal commission will recommend charges’.... more
Housing slump bites as Sydney apartments line up for fire sale.... more
Lamb dinners face chop as drought pushes up prices...more
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