Happy Friday, hoop heads...

Another month in the books, and it feels like this season is flying by (although I'm sure the DOBOs and video coordinators reading this may have a different perspective on that).

To all new folks on the list this week — welcome!! If this is your first week, feel free to mash the reply button with some feedback, or (preferably) fill out the feedback form linked at the bottom of this edition.

For those who have been around for a few weeks, we'll have a cool announcement coming soon about a new product/project...stay tuned.

I know we say this every weekend — but this is definitely the most important weekend of the season yet. And if you're not coaching a game from the sidelines this weekend, you should probably just stay inside and watch hoops all day on Saturday. Whether you're stuck in the cold on east coast/midwest or stuck in rainstorms in California, Saturday has enough consistent action to go without any breaks between games.

(In all seriousness, hope everyone's been staying warm this week — and if you have the ability to help out those stuck in the cold, please do so! Major kudos to all the college hoops programs who have opened their doors, donated gear, and acted as good samaritans in their community all week through this unprecedented cold across much of the country.)

Here we go….

LOOKING AHEAD
This weekend...

• 30 -- games between two teams ranked in KenPom Top 100
• 17 -- games between teams in Top 68
• 14 -- games between Top 48 teams (new season high)
• SEVEN -- games between Top 32 (new season high)

#7 North Carolina at #13 Louisville
Saturday 2pm ET (ESPN)
Earlier in the season in Chapel Hill, North Carolina was handed a 21-point loss at the hands of Louisville — the Tar Heels' worst home loss under Roy Williams. It’s a pretty rare occurrence for a better ranked KenPom team (at the end of the season) to lose by 20 to an “inferior” opponent, but it's not unprecedented by any means; from 2002-2018, that has happened an average of 33 times per year.

A narrative that could be developed is that even though North Carolina is the better team, Louisville is a just “bad matchup” for them, but we like to look past lazy narratives in this space, and look for some substantive context. 

A rematch between the two teams has happened just 13 times a year (219 total games) in the sample. So what happens in these rematches?

Maybe the highest profile example of this dynamic was in the 2016 Final Four. Villanova lost by 23 on a neutral to Oklahoma on December 7th, only to win the rematch by 44 (!!) points in Houston.

Of those 219 rematches, the team that lost game one by 20 (i.e. North Carolina) has won game two 77% of the time - by an average of 8.2 points per game.

There’s a lot going on here, and it's tough to overlook the impact of homecourt advantage. In the majority of cases, the 20-point loss has been on the road and the rematch is going to be at home — and obviously that’s actually not the case for UNC-Louisville. But the point here isn’t that UNC is guaranteed to get revenge tomorrow. The point is that 40 minutes of basketball, no matter how convincing the win, probably isn’t enough to tell us any divine truths about how two teams match up.

KenPom Prediction: Louisville 79, UNC 77
(55% Louisville win probability)
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#43 San Francisco at #42 Saint Mary's
Saturday 4pm ET (TheW.TV // NBC Sports Bay Area)
This is another great rematch that will be worth firing up thew.tv stream to watch. If you’re not convinced, be sure to check out my pre-game Twitter thread on the point guard matchup from their Jan 3 matchup. Frankie Ferrari and Jordan Ford are as good as it gets, regardless of conference affiliation.

Last month, San Francisco really bothered Saint Mary’s (especially early) with ball pressure and ice ball screen coverage. Ford was still his efficient self, but a lot of it didn’t really come within the flow of Saint Mary’s offense.

On the other hand, Ferrari had his highest usage game of the season. He was very aggressive in ball screens early in the game. Ford and Ferrari didn’t actually guard each other much last game, but that’s just a testament to the need to get the longest and most athletic defender on each guy. San Francisco will be going for their first win in Moraga since 2003.

KenPom Prediction: Saint Mary's 70, USF 66
(63% SMC win probability)

Setting the stage: We are utilizing KenPom preseason projections vs. end-of-season results. While KP projections account for coaching ability/success, the point of comparing preseason vs. end-of-season results is to show whether a new hire immediately changed the fortune and outlook of the program.

First off, it’s important to note that every situation is obviously different. High-major vs mid-major, talent left behind, culture from previous staff, history of the program, etc all vary in each case, and it would be impossible to control for every single variable in this case study.

One prevailing narrative amongst fans is that a new coach — almost regardless of the situation they are walking into — should show progress from the previous year. This is a narrative that most fans and media members buy into; a good coach will get things going right away.

However, the data show otherwise. Of the 150 coaches hired between 2012 and 2016 that lasted into their fourth year, there appears to be no clear correlation between immediate success in their first.

Larry Krystowiak (Utah), Earl Grant (CofC), and Porter Moser (Loyola-Chi) all missed their preseason projection in year one by more than 100 spots. Even the most cynical fan or administrator might say those hires worked out pretty well.

Even missing the mark in year two is far from a death blow to the likelihood of a coach’s future success. In our study, 28 of the 48 coaches who failed to exceed preseason expectations in both year one and year two ended up righting the ship, and outperforming preseason expectations on average in years three and four.

Of those 28, half exceeded expectations on average in years three and four by 20 or more places in final KenPom rankings. Names like Nate Oats, Matt McMahon, Bruce Pearl, and Bobby Hurley fit this bill.

Next Week: Year 3 seems to be the "point of no return" for a new hire to turn things around — aside from two notable outliers.

Do you have an idea for a future guest post/research collaboration for this space? Reply to this email with ideas or findings!

LOOKING BACK
THE STUFF YOU MISSED THIS WEEK WHILE RESEARCHING POLAR VORTEXES

• The use of analytics and how the perception around stats/analytics has changed over a basketball generation 
• Defensive switching concepts and a look into how the Wolf Pack approach film study and scouting
• The impact of graduate assistants on a program and head coaches' responsibilities to provide opportunity to GAs

HOOP VISION TRIVIA
In this space, we’ll toss out a trivia question related to some analysis that has appeared here, on Twitter, or on the podcast in recent weeks.

Q: One team has shown up in our “Games To Watch” section twice and has lost both times -- and one has shown up twice and won both...who are those teams?

Reply directly with your answer (or tweet it to @HoopVision68). All correct answers will entered into a drawing for a prize — related to the project/product teased in today's intro note...

(The person with the most correct answers over the course of the season may also be invited to make a guest appearance on the Solving Basketball podcast 👀)