Friday, January 25, 2019

Roger Stone Indicted and Arrested in Mueller Probe

Longtime associate of President Trump was indicted on Thursday by a federal grand jury in the District of Columbia and arrested by the FBI Friday morning at his home in Florida. Stone was indicted on seven counts, including one count of obstruction of an official proceeding, five counts of false statements, and one count of witness tampering. He is set to make an appearance on Friday at the federal courthouse in Fort Lauderdale, FL, according to a spokesman for Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office.

Stone has been in the spotlight for comments that seemingly touted advance knowledge of WikiLeaks’ plan to release Democratic emails stolen by Russian intelligence agents. Mueller’s office reportedly spent months investigating Stone and his role during the 2016 presidential race. Investigators interviewed former Trump campaign advisers and several of his associates both about Stone’s fundraising during the campaign and his contacts with WikiLeaks. Three senior Trump campaign officials have reportedly told Mueller’s team that Stone created the impression that he was a conduit for inside information from WikiLeaks, according to people familiar with their witness interviews. CNN, New York Times

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Our longest war is still an important war: “There is still a strong case to sustain America’s longest war — especially if we redefine it, away from nation-building and toward something more like an enduring partnership with the Afghan people against regional and global extremism,” Michael O’Hanlon writes in the New York Times. “Indeed, Washington should stop looking for an exit strategy and view Afghanistan as one pillar in a broader regional web of capabilities against Al Qaeda, the Islamic State and related movements that show few signs of dissipating.”

Trump needs to take action on Congo’s election crisis, not exacerbate it: The history of the U.S. in Congo is a powerful reminder of just how wrong things go when Africa is treated as a venue for great power competition where political legitimacy is irrelevant,” Russ Feingold writes in the Los Angeles Times. “The current moment provides an opportunity to make it plain that the U.S. is not interested in picking up the old playbook. Control of Congo’s future belongs in the hands of the Congolese people—not with favored elites, not with external powers, not even with the African leaders now offering their congratulations to Tshisekedi.”

The demise of western illusions in Syria: “Diplomacy in Syria was obviously never going to be smooth sailing,” Javier Solana writes in Project Syndicate. “Yet the failure of negotiations was not – and still is not – inevitable. Failure has stemmed not only from important contextual factors, but also from a series of strategic mistakes that the West has made, either by action or by omission.”

The facts about Facebook: “Ultimately, I believe the most important principles around data are transparency, choice and control,” Mark Zuckerberg writes in the Wall Street Journal. “We need to be clear about the ways we’re using information, and people need to have clear choices about how their information is used. We believe regulation that codifies these principles across the internet would be good for everyone.”

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DHS TO BEGIN TURNING ASYLUM SEEKERS BACK TO MEXICO
The Trump administration plans to begin turning asylum-seekers back across the southern border on Friday to wait in Mexico under a new policy designed to crack down on immigration, according to Department of Homeland Security officials familiar with the matter. Customs and Border Protection officers will begin returning asylum-seekers trying to enter at the San Ysidro port of entry in California from Tijuana, Mexico, where thousands of migrants from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador are already waiting in poor conditions. The policy will eventually be expanded throughout the nearly 2,000-mile border, a DHS official said Thursday. On their court dates, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement will provide transportation from the port of entry to immigration court. Asylum-seekers will also be given a 24-hour hotline to call for the status of their asylum cases.

In December, Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen said the U.S. told Mexico that individuals seeking asylum who enter the U.S. illegally or without proper documentation would be sent to Mexico to wait for the duration of their U.S. immigration proceedings. Children who travel without a guardian, immigrants who are ill, as well as other “vulnerable populations” will be exempt from the policy and allowed to wait in the U.S. for an immigration hearing. Civil rights organizations have threatened to sue the Trump administration over the policy, known as Migration Protection Policy, which they say violates U.S. and international asylum laws.

The policy is a unilateral move by the U.S. and not part of an agreement with Mexico, two officials said. The administration of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador Mexico has agreed to care for immigrants who are waiting to apply for asylum. However Tonatiuh Guillén, who heads Mexico’s immigration agency, expressed concern about the about the U.S. policy and Mexico’s ability to accommodate migrants who could spend months or years in the country as their asylum claims are processed. CNN, NBC News, Washington Post

Officials rejected Kushner for top secret clearance, but were overruled: Jared Kushner’s application for a top secret clearance was rejected by two career White House security specialists after an FBI background check raised concerns about potential foreign influence on him, but their supervisor reportedly overruled the recommendation and approved the clearance. The official, Carl Kline, is a former Pentagon employee who was installed as director of the personnel security office in the Executive Office of the President in May 2017. Kushner's was one of at least 30 cases in which Kline overruled career security experts and approved a top secret clearance for incoming Trump officials despite unfavorable information, sources told NBC News. The sources said the number of rejections that were overruled was unprecedented. NBC News

Earlier this week, the House Oversight Committee led by Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-MD) launched an investigation into the White House security clearance process. “The Committee on Oversight and Reform is launching an in-depth investigation of the security clearance process at the White House and in the Transition Team in response to grave breaches of national security at the highest levels of the Trump administration,” Rep. Cummings said in a letter to the White House. NBC News

Trump admin yet to impose new Russia sanctions required by law: Nearly three months after deeming Russia in violation of a chemical weapons law, the Trump administration has yet to impose new sanctions on Moscow required by law. In August, the Trump administration sanctioned Russia for using a military-grade nerve agent last year against ex-Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter in Salisbury, England. The U.S. brought the sanctions under a 1991 law known as the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act. Under the law, a second tranche of sanctions is automatically triggered unless Russia meets a number of strict criteria. The State Department alerted Congress in November that Moscow had not complied with the requirements. However, the U.S. has not formally announced new sanctions on Moscow in the more than two months that have passed.

In a letter Thursday to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said he was “deeply concerned” and called the sanctions “more than two months overdue.” Menendez added, “the United States must not renege on our duty to stand with our allies against the Russian Federation and the international norms against chemical weapons.” NBC News, The Hill

Senate rejects dueling proposals to end shutdown: The Senate blocked two proposals on Thursday to reopen the government, amid the ongoing stalemate, sending lawmakers from both parties into efforts to forge a compromise that could end the nearly six-week partial shutdown. In a 52-44 vote, the Senate rejected House-backed legislation that would fund the government through February 8. Meanwhile, in a 50-47 vote, the Senate blocked legislation endorsed by President Trump that would have provided $5.7 billion for his border wall and granted temporary protection for some undocumented immigrants. The dueling votes marked the first time the Senate has formally moved on government funding since the shutdown began. Politico, New York Times

Militia members face sentencing in Kansas bomb plot: Three militia members face the possibility of life in prison for a foiled plot to murder Muslims in southwest Kansas by blowing up a mosque and apartments housing Somali immigrants. Patrick Stein, Curtis Allen, and Gavin Wright, were convicted last year of plotting an attack in Garden City for the day after the 2016 presidential election. At separate sentencing hearings for the men on Friday, the government plans to play video clips of the intended victims talking about the impact the case has had on their community. The sentencings come a day after two members of an Illinois militia known as the White Rabbits pleaded guilty in the 2017 bombing of a Minnesota mosque, admitting they hoped the attack would scare Muslims into leaving the U.S. Associated Press


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Ukraine opposition leader Tymoshenko launches presidential bid: Ukrainian opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko launched her bid for the presidency on Tuesday as the early frontrunner in opinion polls, pledging to fight corruption, increase wages, and speed up integration with the West. Tymoshenko is favorite in the March 31 vote to unseat President Petro Poroshenko, who came to power in the wake of the 2014 revolution but whose popularity has eroded over his failure to stamp out corruption. A former prime minister with a following among Ukrainian nationalists, Tymoshenko was jailed under pro-Russian leader Viktor Yanukovich. Tymoshenko said among her foreign policy priorities would be Ukraine’s integration into the EU and NATO, which will help the country resist Russian aggression. “We must become a member of NATO right away. We don’t have time to hesitate,” she said. Reuters

Meanwhile, on Thursday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, Kiev expressed fears over Russian interference in the upcoming elections. “For Russia, this election is a final chance to get its revenge," President Poroshenko said. “There is a big risk that Russia will use the experience it has gathered by interfering in foreign elections the world over to attempt to undermine the vote and destabilize the situation.” Agence France Presse

Opposition leader assumes presidency in DRC: Felix Tshisekedi, the opposition leader whose victory in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s presidential elections last month is widely considered to be illegitimate, took the oath of office on Thursday, vowing to tackle endemic corruption. Despite lingering accusations of fraud, neighboring countries, the U.S., and other foreign powers hailed the first peaceful transfer of power since Congo’s independence in 1960, demonstrating eagerness to promote stability. On Wednesday, the U.S. State Department said it was “committed to working with the new government.” Other regional heavyweights, including South Africa, Zambia, and Angola, countries that had initially cast doubts on the election results, also congratulated Tshisekedi on his victory. New York Times


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Progress between U.S. and Taliban in talks: American and Taliban negotiators are making headway on a deal in which the U.S. would withdraw troops from Afghanistan in return for a pledge by the Taliban not to allow the country to host terrorist groups like al-Qaeda in the country, senior Taliban officials and Western diplomats said Thursday. The possibility of an agreement came after a fourth day of face-to-face talks between a delegation led by the U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban officials in Qatar.

But many of the details remained to be ironed out, including how many American troops would be pulled out and over what period of time. The Taliban has said for years that it would not allow Afghan territory to be used to attack others, but since formal talks in July, American negotiators have sought the Taliban's pledge that militant groups such al-Qaeda wouldn’t be allowed to operate from Afghan soil following any peace deal. The discussions on Thursday reportedly appeared set to extend into a fifth day. New York Times, Wall Street Journal

U.S. will no longer announce damage or deaths in Somalia strikes: The U.S. military has said it has carried out two recent airstrikes in Somalia against al-Shabaab, but added that it will no longer provide details on fighters killed or damage done by strikes. A spokesman for the U.S. Africa Command says those details will now be up to Somalia's government to share. On Saturday the U.S. announced its deadliest airstrike in Somalia in months, killing 52 extremists after an attack on Somali forces. The U.S. statement this week said the latest airstrikes occurred on Wednesday near Jilib in Middle Juba region, where Saturday’s strike occurred. Associated Press


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Venezuela’s military backs Maduro: The embattled government of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro struck back against its opponents on Thursday, winning strong support from the country’s armed forces and the solid backing of Russia, which warned the U.S. not to intervene. On Wednesday, opposition leader Juan Guaidóthe be proclaimed himself the country’s rightful president, earning endorsements from President Trump and several regional governments. The Trump administration pressed its case on Thursday, with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling on all countries in the hemisphere to reject Maduro and “align themselves with democracy,” in a sharp challenge to Moscow. The U.S. also offered $20 million in emergency aid to Guaidó and requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on Saturday to discuss the crisis.  However, in a televised news conference on Thursday, the leader of Venezuela’s armed forces declared loyalty to Maduro and called the opposition’s effort to replace him an attempted coup. New York Times

Ukraine’s ex-president convicted of treason: Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych committed treason by inviting Russia to invade Ukraine and reverse a pro-Western revolution that ousted him from power, a court in Kiev ruled on Thursday, sentencing Yanukovych,  to 13 years in prison. The court’s ruling was the first to formally determine that Yanukovych was serving Russian interests while president of Ukraine. However, he is unlikely to spend time behind bars in Ukraine as he now lives in Russia. Yanukovych is also under investigation in Ukraine over corruption allegations and the deaths of more than 100 demonstrators killed in Independence Square in Kiev during the final three days of the uprising in February 2014. New York Times

Spy case linked to China raises Polish and U.S. concerns: Authorities in Warsaw and Washington, DC  are probing Beijing’s ties in Poland in the wake of high-profile arrests of a Chinese executive and a former Polish official. Wang Weijing, who worked in Poland for Huawei Technologies Co., and Piotr Durbajlo, a former senior Polish counterintelligence official, were detained this month and charged with spying for China. MWang, who was fired by Huawei following his arrest, issued a statement via his lawyers last week denying all charges. The investigation—which officials said has been going on for at least two years—is forcing Polish officials to consider whether China’s growing presence has left the country vulnerable to security and intelligence breaches. One fear among both Polish and U.S. officials is that China might have accessed allied intelligence shared with Poland and passed it on to Moscow. Wall Street Journal




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For cutting-edge analysis of the geopolitical events shaping global affairs, read today’s TSC IntelBrief.
Editor-in-Chief, Karen J. Greenberg, Center on National Security, Fordham Law School
 
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