Monday, January 28, 2019 

 U.S. and Taliban Agree in Principle to Peace Framework

After six days of peace negotiations that ended Saturday, American and Taliban officials have reportedly agreed in principle to the framework of a peace deal. “We have a draft of the framework that has to be fleshed out before it becomes an agreement,” the American envoy, Zalmay Khalilzad, said in an interview today with The New York Times in Kabul. “The Taliban have committed, to our satisfaction, to do what is necessary that would prevent Afghanistan from ever becoming a platform for international terrorist groups or individuals.”
 
Taliban officials said that the deal includes an 18-month timeline for the withdrawal of foreign troops. The draft also reportedly includes assurances from the Taliban that it will not allow Afghanistan to be used by Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State to attack the U.S. and its allies - a core U.S. demand. Similar assurances involving other groups are reportedly given to Pakistan. Taliban sources also said that a fresh round of talks between Khalilzad and the Taliban is expected to take place on February 25 in Doha. Despite the progress on a pact, violence is widely expected to continue, with the Taliban mounting daily attacks against the Afghan government and its security forces.
 
In an address to the nation after being briefed by Khalilzad, President Ashraf Ghani expressed concern that a peace deal would be rushed. He highlighted previous settlements that ended in bloodshed, including when the Soviet Union withdrew from the country in the late 1980s. “We want peace quickly, we want it soon, but we want it with prudence,” Mr. Ghani said. “Prudence is important so we do not repeat past mistakes.” New York Times, The Hill, Reuters
Related:
New York Times: Afghan Women Fear Peace With Taliban May Mean War on Them
New York Times: How Afghans Have Adapted to Life After Losing a Limb
BBC: Taliban Talks: Will Negotiations Lead to Peace in Afghanistan?
Reuters: U.S. Doesn't Seek Permanent Afghan Military Presence

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Will the Supreme Court use a New York City regulation to strike down gun laws? “The suit, which calls the city’s restrictions on transporting handguns through its streets ‘bizarre,’ ‘irrational,’ and ‘perverse,’ was brought by the New York State Rifle & Pistol Association—the state affiliate of the National Rifle Association,” writes Amy Davidson Sorkin for The New Yorker.  “An overriding issue at stake, then, is whether the Court will decide that the right to “bear” arms is tantamount to a broad right to travel with them. (Justice Clarence Thomas has said, with regard to an earlier case, that he emphatically believes it is.)”
 
The real wall isn’t at the border: “This is a disagreement about symbolism, not policy. Liberals object less to aggressive border security than to the wall’s xenophobic imagery, while the administration openly revels in its political incorrectness,” writes Atossa Araxia Abrahamian in the New York Times.  “One’s freedom of movement used to be largely determined by one’s citizenship, national origin and finances. That’s still the case — but increasingly, people are being categorized not just by the color of their passports or their ability to pay for tickets but also by where they’ve been and what they’ve said in the past.”
 
China’s foreign fighters problem: “China has a foreign fighters problem. Like many other states, it is dealing with the complex security and legal implications of its residents leaving the country to join jihadist groups,” writes Dr. Mathieu Duchâtel in War on the Rocks. “In Beijing’s case, the problem is not limited to Chinese nationals who have joined jihadist organizations in Syria. Some combatants are indeed ethnic Uyghurs of Chinese nationality and a few Han Chinese. But other combatants are ethnic Uyghurs who have never been citizens of the People’s Republic but could, in a worst-case scenario, target Chinese interests to retaliate against China’s Xinjiang policies or to promote independence for the northwestern province.”

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Trump will secure border ‘with or without Congress’: In an interview on “Fox News Sunday,” White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney said that President Trump will secure the U.S. border with Mexico “with or without Congress.”  Mulvaney declined to say whether Trump would accept less than the $5.7 billion in funding he has demanded for the wall. He maintained that Trump is ready to use emergency powers to secure the border. The partial government shutdown, which was the longest in U.S. history, ended on Friday with Trump agreeing to temporarily reopen the government without any money for a border wall. But the deal only provided funding through February 15. A bipartisan, bicameral committee has been charged with negotiating an agreement on border security as part of the deal, and a stalemate could trigger another shutdown in the coming weeks. Washington Post
 
Stone says he would consider cooperating with Mueller: Roger Stone, a longtime political adviser to President Trump who was arrested Friday on accusations of lying to Congress, said he would consider cooperating with Special Counsel Robert Mueller in his probe into alleged Russian election interference in 2016. In an ABC News interview Sunday, host George Stephanopoulos asked Stone whether there was any chance he would cooperate. “If there’s wrongdoing by other people in the campaign that I know about, which I know of none, but if there is, I would certainly testify honestly.” Stone said, adding: “I’d also testify honestly about any other matter, including any communications with the president. It’s true that we spoke on the phone, but those communications are political in nature, they’re benign, and there is, there is certainly no conspiracy with Russia.” Wall Street Journal, CNN
 
U.S. ignores UN warning that climate change impacts security: The UN system's chief scientist on weather and climate warned Friday that climate change has "a multitude of security impacts" and is increasingly regarded as a national security threat — with global warming records broken in 20 of the last 22 years. More than 80 of the 193 UN member states spoke at the day-long meeting and virtually everyone except the United States agreed that climate change was happening. Rosemary DiCarlo, UN undersecretary-general for political and peacebuilding affairs, told the UN Security Council that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report in October, which predicted more heat waves, heavier rain events, higher sea levels and severe damage to agriculture represents "a security risk for the entire world." Acting U.S. Ambassador Jonathan Cohen spoke only of "natural disasters" like hurricanes and floods that "frequently lead to breakdowns in social order and spikes in crime, violence and instability." NBC News, The Hill
 
Suspect in five Louisiana shooting deaths captured: Dakota Theriot, the man accused of killing five people in Louisiana on Saturday, was arrested Sunday morning in Richmond County, Virginia, Sheriff Steve Smith said. The deputies had been called to the home of a member of Theriot's family to check on the residence when Theriot pulled up in a vehicle with a gun pointed out the window, Smith said. Theriot is accused of killing his parents, his girlfriend, and her father and brother in two separate shootings. CNN
 
Military judge schedules next war crimes trial at Guantánamo: Marine Lt. Col. Michael Libretto has set a year-long timetable toward a February 2020 trial in Guantánamo’s case against an Iraqi man accused of commanding insurgents in Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks. Jury selection is scheduled to start on February 19, 2020 in the case against Abd al Hadi al Iraqi. It is the only trial date on the calendar in Guantánamo’s three contested war crimes trials; the 9/11 and USS Cole case trials are still mired in pretrial challenges, with attorneys in both capital cases seeking intervention in the system in federal, civilian courts. Hadi, who says his true name is Nashwan al Tamir, is accused of commanding and paying Al-Qaeda or Taliban forces who attacked U.S. and allied troops, as well as civilian aid workers, in the post 9/11 invasion of Afghanistan. Captured in Turkey in 2006, he was taken to Guantánamo in April 2007 and was charged in June 2014. Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, Sacramento Bee
 
Three men sentenced in plot to bomb Somali immigrants: Three men  were convicted on Friday of plotting to blow up a Kansas apartment complex where Somali refugees lived. Patrick Stein, Curtis Allen, and Gavin Wright were each sentenced to prison sentences beginning at 25 years, the Justice Department said on Friday. “The defendants in this case acted with clear premeditation in an attempt to kill innocent people on the basis of their religion and national origin,” Matthew G. Whitaker, the acting United States Attorney General, said in a statement. “That’s not just illegal — it’s morally repugnant.” The men, who called themselves “the Crusaders,” were arrested four weeks before November 9, 2016, the date they had picked for the bombing. Prosecutors said the men had also considered attacks on other targets, including elected officials and churches that helped refugees. New York Times, The Hill
 


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Cease-fire in Idlib at risk:  The Syrian government and its Russian backers have suggested that the recent takeover of the last rebel stronghold in Syria by an Al Qaeda-linked group could threaten a cease-fire that has been in place for several months. The situation in Idlib is “rapidly deteriorating,” a spokeswoman for Russia’s Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said last week. The group, Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham, has gradually gained dominance over Idlib, and this month decisively ousted its more moderate rivals and asserted administrative control. In a report released this morning, Human Rights Watch documented 11 cases in which Hay’et Tahrir al-Sham allegedly detained Idlib residents, apparently because of their peaceful work documenting abuses or protesting the group’s rule. Six of those detained were reportedly tortured. The shattering of the cease-fire in Idlib would put its population in the path of yet another military onslaught and propel a fresh wave of refugees into Turkey. When Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met in Moscow last Wednesday, Putin emphasized that the two countries must take “additional steps” to stop terrorist groups in Idlib. Without specifying what should be done, he did not rule out breaking the cease-fire. “Supporting the cease-fire,” Putin said, “should not come at the expense of the struggle against terrorists, which is to be continued.” New York Times, Human Rights Watch
 
Meanwhile, the Washington Post on Sunday reported that complete territorial defeat of ISIS appears to be imminent, with only a pair of “dusty villages” in the Syrian desert under ISIS control. The Post reported that a few hundred of the most die-hard Islamic State fighters are making their last stand in the villages of Marashida and Baghuz Fawqani on the banks of the Euphrates River, a few miles from the Iraqi border in southeastern Syria. With the Syrian army on the other side of the river, the group is reportedly pinned down by the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in an area of land measuring six square miles. The Post reported that it is now only a matter of weeks or even days before the villages are overrun and the Islamic State’s vaunted state-building enterprise in Syria and Iraq is brought to an end. Washington Post
 
U.S. developing supply route to Somalia: The Department of Defense is reportedly in the early stages of a project to develop land-based supply routes from Camp Lemonnier in Djibouti to other U.S. camps across the eastern part of Africa. The first part of the trail is reportedly intended to link Lemonnier to Baledogle, the U.S. camp in Somalia. The passage traverses areas controlled by Al-Shabaab, swaths of land controlled by warlords with private militias, and a tense border region with Ethiopia. The reported project falls under the purview of the Virginia-based defense contractor Pacific Architects and Engineers, one of a few companies that support Africom in Somalia. Foreign Policy
 


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BOMB BLAST KILLS 20 IN MINDANAO
The detonation of two  improvised explosives on Sunday morning at a cathedral in Jolo, in the Philippine region of Mindanao, killed at least 20 people and wounded dozens of others. The attack occurred after a vote to form an autonomous Muslim region in Mindanao, underscoring how elusive peace remains in the southern Philippines. The first bomb went off as churchgoers were attending a service, and a second was detonated as soldiers rushed into the church to respond. No specific armed group has claimed responsibility for the blast, but the office of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte condemned the bombing as an “act of terrorism.”  Analysts with the Philippine Institute for Peace, Violence and Terrorism Research say that the attacks bear the hallmarks of the Abu Sayyaf Group, which has been active in Jolo and is known to have its base of operations in the province. Washington Post, Reuters, Wall Street Journal
 
Pompeo presses UN Security Council to ‘pick a side’ on Venezuela: Secretary of State Pompeo on Saturday urged the United Nations Security Council to “pick a side” on the political future of Venezuela.  He denounced President Nicolás Maduro’s government  as an “illegitimate mafia state.” “No more delays, no more games,” he said in a relatively rare appearance at an emergency meeting of the Security Council called by the United States. “Either you stand with the forces of freedom, or you’re in league with Maduro and his mayhem.” The lengthy session underscored the deep divisions in the United Nations over Venezuela. Maduro’s allies repeatedly accused Washington of attempting a coup d’etat in Caracas, characterizing it as the latest in a string of U.S. interventions in Latin America dating back more than a century. It also highlighted the acrimonious state of U.S. relations with Russia and China, two countries that Pompeo accused of “propping up a failed regime in the hopes of recovering billions of dollars in ill-considered investments and assistance made over the years.” Washington Post, Wall Street Journal
Related:
Washington Post: Rubio Disputes that the United States Would Participate in a Coup in Venezuela
The Guardian: Russia Denies Sending Mercenaries to Shore up Nicolás Maduro's Position
Washington Post: Venezuela’s Opposition in Talks With Military and Civilian Officials to Force Out Maduro
Reuters: UN Urges Latin American Leaders to Support Venezuelans
 
EU Nations set out to help companies trade with Iran: The U.K, France, and Germany are set to uphold their pledge to help companies domestically trade with Iran despite U.S. sanctions. The announcement of the so-called special purpose vehicle could come as soon as today. The mechanism is key to the EU’s effort to keep Iran from quitting the 2015 accord to constrain its nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.  A draft EU statement seen by Bloomberg welcomes the initiative by the U.K, France, and Germany as providing “a positive impact on trade and economic relations with Iran, but most importantly on the lives of Iranian people.” The mechanism is intended to help protect European companies interested in doing business in Iran from U.S. sanctions that could result from dollar-based transactions. Bloomberg, Time
 
Canadian PM fires envoy to China after Huawei remarks: Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Saturday said he had fired his ambassador to China, John McCallum, who had prompted a political furor with comments about Huawei’s high-profile extradition case. McCallum has said that Huawei Technologies Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou could make a strong argument against being sent to the United States. Opposition legislators and former ambassadors accused McCallum of unacceptable political interference in an affair which has badly damaged relations between Canada and China. Reuters
 
Arrests made in Canadian terror plot: A minor was charged on Friday in eastern Ontario with “facilitating a terrorist activity” and trying to persuade a friend to plant a bomb in a public place. The minor who was charged was not identified, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police would not describe him. But the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation and the Canadian Press news agency identified his friend as Hussam Eddin Alzahabi, one of about 52,000 Syrian refugees who have come to Canada. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who made the Syrians’ resettlement a leading priority of his government, faced questions on Friday about Canada’s openness toward refugees. New York Times
 




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Editor-in-Chief, Karen J. Greenberg, Center on National Security, Fordham Law School
 
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