Mayor Durkan recently announced updated construction and operations cost estimates for the proposed Center City Streetcar on 1st Avenue.
The construction cost estimate has increased to $286 million, and operations costs have increased to $28 million annually. Both represent significant increases over previous estimates, with large funding gaps. A potential opening would now be in 2025 rather than late 2018 as previously estimated in a 2015 grant application to the Federal Transit Administration.
I appreciate the Mayor’s commitment to providing realistic cost estimates; this stands in stark contrast to the previous administration and previous SDOT leadership. However, I remain very skeptical that building a center city streetcar would be the best use of very limited transportation funds. I have also long questioned whether the streetcar is truly a transportation project or whether it serves primarily economic development interests as Seattle Times columnist Danny Westneat did as well in his column last week.
The Council adopted a measure in the 2019 budget requiring Council approval of any construction spending.
Construction cost estimates
The updated construction cost estimate is $286 million; exactly double – a 100% increase from the 2015 estimate. The August independent report ordered by the Mayor estimated $252 million, up from $198 million in 2017. The latest increases are in part related to serious mistakes made with the streetcar vehicle design; here’s a link to a memo and report about that.
The funding gap construction is reported to be $65 million. However, this figure contains three assumptions: first, that the City will receive a $75 million FTA grant; secondly, it includes $45 million in bond funding which is a discretionary Council decision; and third, as noted in the presentation, there may be additional costs associated with extending or cancelling the current vehicle procurement contract.
While there would likely be costs to stopping the project, even with those costs, doing so would make significant additional funds available for other transportation purposes.
Operations cost estimates
The updated operations cost estimate is $28 million, a 75% increase from the $16 million in SDOT’s 2017 report required by the Council, per an amendment I sponsored. While the $16 million estimate is for 2020, and the $28 million is for 2025, it highlights the gap in the quality of information the Council received.
The annual estimated funding gap (i.e. city subsidy) appears to be $18 million for 2025.
The latest increases come in part from operating deficits of the current streetcars, which shows a $4 million annual operations funding gap, and which the Mayor included in the proposed 2019 budget. Sound Transit’s annual $5 million operations subsidy for the First Hill Line ends in 2023. Adding a center city streetcar would increase the gap from the current lines, and cost millions more each year.
Is a Center City Streetcar the best use of transportation funds?
There are other transportation priorities with either funding shortfalls, or unfunded needs. For example, multi-modal corridors and bike/pedestrian work have shortfalls compared to projections for move levy spending.
In addition, cost estimates for ST3 light rail for the West Seattle/Ballard line include tunnel options that could significantly increase the costs. It appears likely we will need to find additional funding, what Sound Transit refers to as “third party funding.” Costs could be higher in not just West Seattle, but also Ballard and Chinatown/ID. After the ST Board approves alternatives to study in a few months, we’ll have until 2022 to find additional funding.
The bottom line is that any funds we commit to a center city streetcar will not be available for better light rail options.
The original purpose behind the SLU and First Hill lines was to connect those neighborhoods to light rail; they serve that purpose. A Center City Streetcar, while it would connect the two other lines, would travel where light rail stations already exist, at Pioneer Square, University, and Westlake. In addition, the voter-approved ST3 line will add a second subway tunnel through Downtown and South Lake Union in 2035.
Buses productively serve the Downtown/SLU corridor; the C Line and the 40 are two of the busiest lines in the entire bus system. C Line ridership increased by more than 20% when the line was extended to South Lake Union.
I serve on the Regional Transit Committee. Last week we were briefed on the King County Metro 2018 system evaluation. The report shows, in District 1 alone, that the C Line, 120, 50, 37, 56, 21, 131, 132, 125, and 60 all needing additional service to meet KC Metro’s service guidelines for crowding, reliability, and service growth. The City uses the same criteria for funding the additional bus service approved by Seattle’s voters in 2014. Building a center city streetcar is unlikely to help us to meet those targets.
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