Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Lawmakers Reach Agreement in Principle to Avoid Shutdown 

Congressional negotiators said Monday night that they had reached an “agreement in principle” to fund border security and prevent another partial government shutdown on Saturday. Senate and House appropriators from both parties would not comment on the details of the deal because they said staff was still working on last-minute logistics. The reported agreement came in a third round of talks on Capitol Hill following a weekend of stalled negotiations. “The fact that it looked like there was going to be another shutdown imminently” led to renewed efforts in the talks on Monday, Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby (R-AL) told reporters after announcing the deal. Shelby met with top appropriators Rep. Nita Lowey (D-NY), Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), and Rep. Kay Granger (R-TX) behind closed doors for the talks.

The framework of the deal would provide $1.375 billion for barriers along the border, including 55 miles of new fencing, with certain restrictions on the location, according to a congressional official familiar with the agreement. Democrats backed down from their demand on tight limits on detention beds that Immigrations and Customs Enforcement (ICE) could use to detain undocumented immigrants, an issue that led to a breakdown in talks over the weekend.  Negotiators reportedly agreed to fund 40,520 detention beds for ICE, a roughly 17 percent reduction from current levels. Negotiators reportedly felt the deal would prove sufficient to fund all government operations through the end of the September, potentially removing any more shutdown threats for the remainder of the fiscal year. Lowey said she hoped the negotiators would have a finished product by Wednesday. She said she ran the proposal by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who signed off on it. CNN, NBC News, Washington Post, Politico

Meanwhile, in a campaign rally in El Paso, Texas, President Trump said he intends to build a wall regardless of the deal negotiated on Capitol Hill. “We probably have some good news, but who knows? He said. “We are doing whatever we have to do. The wall is being built.” Trump also suggested that the recent government shutdown was worth the fight to build a wall. The economy “had a little blip because of a thing called the shutdown,” Trump said. “If we didn't do that shutdown, we would not have been able to show this country, these politicians, the world, what is happening with the border. That was a very important thing.” ABC News

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Denying women a seat at Taliban talks is a huge mistake: “To succeed, the peace agreement must go beyond broad promises of doing right by women. Those promises must be backed by measurable indicators ensuring access to mobility, health, justice and more,” Swanee Hunt and Wazhma Frogh write on CNN.com. “With support from the U.S. and others, large numbers of women are taking the risk to speak their minds. Negotiators must immediately pull more chairs up to the table. Amplifying the voices of those who have repressed half the population is a strategy for failure.”

We’ve had great victories in Afghanistan. We can’t cut and run now: “Just as the U.S. military maintains a joint base in Honduras to protect the United States from narcoterrorists operating in Central America, we should maintain bases in Afghanistan so we can protect the United States from al-Qaeda and IS-K [ISIS-Khorasan] terrorists. But that would not be the equivalent of continuing the fight in Afghanistan,” Senator James Lankford (R-OK) writes in the Washington Post. “Given that Afghanistan shares borders with Iran, China and Pakistan, the United States has many reasons to stay engaged with a new government in Kabul and to maintain a security force in that unstable region.”

Where is Crown Prince Mohammed? “This is the winter of Mohammed bin Salman’s discontent. The young crown prince is beset on all sides by problems that would depress or deter most leaders, but there is no sign that his optimism or energy are flagging,” Karen Elliott House writes in the Wall Street Journal. “Whether sheer determination will be enough to secure his success, however, seems more in doubt than ever

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California governor to keep some troops at Mexico border: Newly elected Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom walked back a warning on Monday that he was ready to withdraw hundreds of the state’s National Guard troops from the U.S.-Mexico border. Former Gov. Jerry Brown agreed to deploy troops last year at the request of the Trump administration, but said the troops couldn’t engage in immigration activities. Newsom said Monday he was seeking the withdrawal because California troops have been operating cameras and doing other surveillance work that can inadvertently aid in immigration enforcement. However, after reportedly consulting with National Guard officials, he said he would seek to rewrite the state’s agreement with the federal government to deploy 100 troops instead of the roughly 360 that are at the border. He says Guard officials convinced him there is good work being done to combat drug trafficking. Associated Press

Rep. Omar apologizes for controversial tweets on Israel lobby: Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (D-MN) apologized Monday afternoon for controversial tweets on Sunday, which drew bipartisan backlash, in which she said money was driving U.S. politicians to defend Israel. “Anti-Semitism is real and I am grateful for Jewish allies and colleagues who are educating me on the painful history of anti-Semitic tropes,” Omar said in a statement released on Twitter, about an hour House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the entire Democratic leadership publicly chastised her for engaging in “deeply offensive” anti-Semitic tropes. “My intention is never to offend my constituents or Jewish Americans as a whole,” Omar wrote, adding, “I unequivocally apologize.” She also noted that she would not back down on the “problematic role of lobbyists in our politics.” NBC News

Trump objects to measure ending U.S. support for Saudis in Yemen: The Trump administration threatened on Monday to veto an effort in the U.S. Congress to end U.S. military support for the Saudi Arabia-led coalition in the war in Yemen. Democrats and Republicans re-introduced the war powers resolution two weeks ago as a way to send a strong message to Riyadh both about the humanitarian disaster in Yemen and condemn the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The administration said the resolution was inappropriate because U.S. forces had provided aircraft refueling and other support in the Yemen conflict, not combat troops. It also said the measure would harm relationships in the region and hurt the U.S. ability to prevent the spread of violent extremism. Reuters

Report warns of Russian and Chinese threats to U.S. in space: A new U.S. intelligence report warns that both China and Russia are investing in weapons that could attack U.S. satellites and assets in space, and that both nations are now preparing to use space as a battlefield. “China and Russia, in particular, are developing a variety of means to exploit perceived U.S. reliance on space-based systems and challenge the U.S. position in space,” said the Defense Intelligence Agency report published Monday. While China has demonstrated an anti-satellite missile and may have perfected a laser that could attack U.S. assets in space, Russia is still working to perfect those technologies and, according to the report, focusing heavily on weapons that can disable or even destroy assets in space. CNN, NBC News

Pentagon seeks increase in budget for ‘slush fund’ account: The Defense Department is planning to ask Congress for a massive increase to an account often criticized as a “slush fund” in order to circumvent mandatory spending limits, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the discussions. Sources said the Pentagon in its fiscal year 2020 budget request is planning to ask lawmakers to more than double the size of the Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) account to a level not seen since the height of the Iraq surge in the late 2000s. Entire programs, such as the U.S. Army’s ammunition fund, would be moved to this war account, a source said. OCO is meant to act as an emergency fund for the Pentagon if the United States suddenly became engaged in a full scale war, although it has been used as a loophole by many administrations to boost defense spending. Foreign Policy


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Shanahan assures Afghanistan of U.S. support during visit: In his first visit to Afghanistan six weeks after he became acting Pentagon chief following the resignation of Gen. James Mattis, Patrick Shanahan met with Afghan leaders in Kabul on Monday amid the Trump administration’s intensified push to end the war there. Speaking to reporters ahead of his arrival, Shanahan said he had not received orders to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan. “I think the presence we want in Afghanistan is what assures our homeland defense and supports regional stability, and that any type of sizing is done in a coordinated and disciplined manner,” he said.

An Afghan Defense Ministry statement said Shanahan had assured Afghanistan’s acting defense minister that under a peace deal with the Taliban, the U.S. “wouldn’t abandon Afghan forces in training and fighting terrorism.” An aide to Shanahan said he affirmed the U.S. commitment to Afghanistan’s security. During his visit, Shanahan also visited a site housing an elite U.S. counterterrorism mission against ISIS and al-Qaeda, which many officials hope could continue even after the departure of most American troops from Afghanistan under a peace deal. Washington Post, Wall Street Journal

On Tuesday, Shanahan arrived in Baghdad for an unannounced visit during which he said he would emphasize the importance of Iraqi sovereignty and broach the issue of the future of U.S. troops there. “We are in Iraq at the invitation of the government and our interests are to build Iraqi security capability,” Shanahan told reporters. Reuters
Related:
The Atlantic: The Afghan Government Is Missing From Afghanistan's Peace Process

Russia, Turkey call for action on Syria’s Idlib: During talks in Ankara on Monday, Russia and Turkey said “decisive measures are needed to ensure security” in Syria’s Idlib, where militants linked to al-Qaeda have seized control. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Turkish counterpart Hulusi Akar agreed to continue coordination between their militaries and intelligence services “to establish peace and maintain stability” in the city and province of Idlib. They also discussed a Kurdish-controlled area of Syria that U.S. forces are leaving, according to a Russian Defense Ministry statement. The talks took place as Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to host talks on Syria with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian leader Hassan Rouhani in Sochi on Thursday. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has signaled that Ankara might agree to a limited Russian-backed Syrian offensive to retake Idlib. Bloomberg

Syrian state media says Israel fires missiles in southern province: An Israeli drone fired four missiles near a demolished hospital and an army observation post in Syria’s southern Quneitra province near the border with Israel, the Syrian army said on Monday. An army source was quoted by state news agency SANA as saying that Israel also hit several sites along border villages close to a demilitarized zone on the Golan frontier. Residents familiar with the area said that the sites targeted fell within the strategic area connecting the southern Damascus countryside with Deraa and Quneitra provinces. Reuters

Coalition warplanes hit last ISIS enclave in eastern Syria: U.S.-led coalition warplanes struck ISIS’ last stronghold in eastern Syria as hundreds of civilians fled the besieged enclave on Monday. The U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces launched an offensive on Saturday to capture the enclave from ISIS in Deir Ezzor province. The SDF believes 400 to 600 ISIS fighters may be holed up there. Reuters

UN seeks access to grain in Yemen’s Hodeidah: The UN is seeking urgent access to a massive supply of grain at risk of rotting in silos in the Yemeni port city of Hodeidah. The World Food Program grain stored in the Red Sea Mills is enough to feed 3.7 million people for a month, but it has been inaccessible for more than five months, according to UN officials. officials, “We emphasize that ensuring access to the mills is a shared responsibility among the parties to the conflict in Yemen,” Yemen special envoy Martin Griffiths said in a statement Monday. At UN-brokered peace talks in Sweden in December, the warring sides agreed to a ceasefire in the port city, but sporadic fighting persists as they continue to wrangle over specifics of the truce. In January, shelling sparked a fire at the Red Sea Mills that damaged some of the wheat stored there, the UN said. Wall Street Journal


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Iran vows to continue military expansion: At a ceremony to mark the 40th anniversary of Iran’s 1969 revolution, President Hassan Rouhani on Monday boasted about the country’s military strength and told a large crowd that foreign powers would never dominate Iran again. “We have not — and will not — ask for permission from anybody for improving our defensive power,” Rouhani said, according to a transcript released by his office. He reaffirmed Tehran’s pledge to continue developing ballistic-missile systems that Washington says threatens the region’s security, saying “we have not asked and will not ask for permission to develop various types of missiles.” Washington Post, Wall Street Journal
Related:
The Hill: Trump Tweets in Persian to Send Message to Iran on Revolution’s Anniversary
Washington Post: We Were Covering the Iranian Revolution. A Single Gunshot Still Haunts Me.

Individuals reportedly targeted in case over Israeli firm’s spyware: When mysterious operatives lured two cybersecurity researchers to meetings at luxury hotels over the past two months, it was an apparent bid to discredit their research about an Israeli company that makes smartphone hacking technology used by some governments to spy on their citizens. A report by the Associated Press found similar undercover efforts that targeted at least four other individuals who have raised questions about the use of the Israeli firm’s spyware. The four others targeted by operatives include three lawyers involved in related lawsuits in Israel and Cyprus alleging that the company, the NSO Group, sold its spyware to governments with questionable human rights records. The fourth is a London-based journalist who has covered the litigation.  All six of the people who were targeted said they believe the operatives were part of a coordinated effort to discredit them. “There’s somebody who’s really interested in sabotaging the case,” said one of the targets, Mazen Masri, who teaches at City University, London and is advising the plaintiffs’ attorney in the case in Israel. Associated Press

Trump pushes Iraq to stop buying energy from Iran: The Trump administration is reportedly pressuring Iraq to stop buying energy from its neighbor and sole foreign supplier, Iran, in what has become a major point of conflict between Washington and Baghdad. Iraqi leaders, fearing that a further shortfall in power would lead to mass protests and political instability, are pushing back on the demand, which stems from President Trump’s sanctions against Iran. “Iraq will not be part of the sanctions regime against Iran and any other people,” Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said last week. The dispute has reportedly strained American diplomacy with Baghdad. New York Times

UK to deploy drone squadron for defense: During a speech at the Royal United Services Institute in London, British Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson said the UK’s armed forces would deploy “swarm squadrons” of drones capable of “confusing the enemy and overwhelming their air defences.”  He said Britain must be ready “to use hard power” as actions by China and Russia had “blurred” the boundaries between peace and war. “The price of non-intervention in global crises has often been unacceptably high. To talk, but fail to act, risks our nation being seen as little more than a paper tiger,” he said. Williamson also reiterated a plan to open military bases in Asia and the Caribbean, and announced that the UK’s new aircraft carrier, HMS Queen Elizabeth, would head to the Pacific region for her first operational tour. Sky News

Russia may disconnect from the internet to test cyber defense: Russia is considering a plan to temporarily disconnect from the Internet to test how the country’s cyber defenses would fare in the face of foreign aggression, according to Russian media. The experiment comes as lawmakers there assess the Digital Economy National Program, draft legislation that was submitted to Russia's parliament last year. The bill would require Internet providers to make sure they can operate if foreign countries attempt to isolate the Runet, or Russian Internet.The test is expected to happen before April 1, but no exact date has been set. BBC, NPR




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For cutting-edge analysis of the geopolitical events shaping global affairs, read today’s TSC IntelBrief.
Editor-in-Chief, Karen J. Greenberg, Center on National Security, Fordham Law School
 
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