Wednesday, February 13, 2019 

U.S. - Led Middle East Summit Begins With Weak EU Support

Key European powers will offer only limited participation in a high-profile Trump administration summit in Warsaw on the Middle East starting today, reflecting their growing anger over unilateral U.S. policymaking on Iran and Syria. The event, which was originally conceived by the U.S. as a way to press EU countries to adopt more aggressive stances towards Iran, was later recharacterized as a summit on the Middle East peace. The UK foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, will leave the Warsaw summit early, pleading Brexit Commons business, while France is sending a civil servant and Germany its junior foreign minister. Federica Mogherini, the EU external affairs chief, will boycott the event.
 
The Trump administration had hoped the Warsaw conference would be a showcase of global unity against Tehran coinciding with the 40th anniversary of the Iranian Revolution. When it was announced, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo emphasized it would address “Middle East stability and Iran” — identifying no other country by name. But three diplomats from NATO countries said that America’s allies pushed back, with many nations telling the U.S. they would not participate if the summit was a narrow effort to pressure Iran. The EU was reportedly  not consulted before Pompeo announced the summit which is being jointly hosted with Poland. Despite retitling the agenda to focus on peace and security in the Middle East, European diplomats remain sceptical that figures such as Pompeo and the U.S. vice-president, Mike Pence, will dial down their anti-Iran rhetoric at the summit.
 
The conference will also hear from White House adviser Jared Kushner about plans by the United States for peace between Palestinians and Israelis. While Kushner is not likely to divulge too many details of the plan, it will be one of the first occasions he will publicly discuss the U.S. efforts. Palestinian officials have said they will not attend the Warsaw conference because of Washington’s decision to move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will, however, attend, alongside several officials from Gulf states.The Guardian, NBC News , Reuters
Related:
Reuters: No Problem With America Can Be Resolved: Iran Supreme Leader
 

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America's effort to isolate Iran will backfire:“As the celebrations of the fortieth anniversary of the Iranian revolution comes to an end in Tehran, Secretary Mike Pompeo and National Security Advisor John Bolton are busy gathering an anti-Iran coalition in Warsaw to crush Iran’s clerical rulers once and for all. But there is nothing innovative about the Pompeo-Bolton plan,” writes Trita Parsi in the National Interest. “In fact, Washington has been down this path numerous times before and it has invariably led to failure...The question is not whether Bolton and Pompeo will succeed or not, but what they will push Donald Trump to do once their failure is clear for all to see.”
 
It’s not just Catalan separatists. Democracy is also on trial in Spain: “Tensions on all sides are high in Spain as the trial of the century gets underway this week, with a dozen Catalan leaders facing charges of rebellion and sedition for promoting a 2017 independence referendum,” writes Naomi Mezey in the Washington Post. “The very viability of democratic states of diverse and divided citizenry is also on trial. At its core, Spain’s trial is about whether democracies can manage profound disagreement among their citizens and maintain their commitment to democracy.”
 
What Ronald Reagan would tell President Trump about arms control: “Rather than rip up the treaty that makes Russian deployment illegal, the United States should take a page from President Ronald Reagan’s 1980s playbook,” writes Victoria Nuland in the Washington Post. “We should buy time through negotiations to develop and deploy our own countermeasures in Europe while offering Moscow a treaty that meets our shared security needs: countering the growing missile threat from China that the INF Treaty didn’t foresee.”

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EL CHAPO FOUND GUILTY
Mexican drug lord Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzmán was found guilty Tuesday of crimes spanning more than a quarter of a century, during which prosecutors said he smuggled more than 200 tons of cocaine into the United States. After an almost three-month trial and six days of deliberations, a New York jury found the Sinaloa cartel leader guilty on each of the 10 charges he was tried on, including engaging in a continuing criminal enterprise and multiple counts of distributing large amounts of narcotics internationally. Guzmán  now faces life in prison. The U.S. had agreed not to seek the death penalty while trying to extradite him from Mexico, which has abolished capital punishment. He is due to be sentenced June 25. NBC News, Associated Press
Related:
CNN: What The 'El Chapo' Guzmán Verdict Means For The Powerful Sinaloa Cartel
BBC: El Chapo Guilty: Will His Jailing Change Anything?
 
Senate finds no direct evidence of conspiracy between Trump campaign and Russia: After two years and 200 interviews, the Senate Intelligence Committee is approaching the end of its investigation into the 2016 election, having uncovered no direct evidence of a conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russia, according to both Democrats and Republicans on the committee. But investigators disagree along party lines when it comes to the implications of a pattern of contacts they have documented between Trump associates and Russians - contacts that occurred before, during, and after Russian intelligence operatives sought to help Trump by leaking hacked Democratic emails and attacking Hillary Clinton on social media. On Tuesday, Chairman Richard Burr (R-NC) said that "There is no factual evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia." NBC News
 
Manafort’s 2016 meeting goes to ‘the heart’ of Mueller’s probe: Court records show that Paul Manafort and Rick Gates met with Russian political operative Konstantin Kilimnik in a dinner meeting at a private cigar room at the Havana Room following the conclusion of the 2016 nominating conventions. The August 2, 2016, encounter between the senior Trump campaign officials and Kilimnik, who prosecutors allege has ties to Russian intelligence, has emerged in recent days as a potential fulcrum in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s  investigation. It was at that meeting that prosecutors believe Manafort and Kilimnik may have exchanged key information relevant to Russia and Trump’s presidential bid. The encounter goes “very much to the heart of what the special counsel’s office is investigating,” prosecutor Andrew Weissmann told a federal judge in a sealed hearing last week. As reported on Monday, one subject the men discussed was a proposed resolution to the conflict over Ukraine. Washington Post
 
Trump “not happy” with border security deal: President Trump sent mixed signals on a bipartisan border-security deal reached by lawmakers yesterday, but he didn’t rule out ultimately signing the resulting legislation, injecting new suspense over whether another government shutdown would begin this weekend. “Am I happy at first glance?” the president said, speaking with reporters at the beginning of a cabinet meeting. “I just got to see it. The answer is no, I’m not. I’m not happy.” But he said he was “moving things around” in the budget from “far less important areas” to finance a border wall even without explicit congressional approval, and he expressed no desire to repeat the standoff that shuttered many federal agencies for 35 days. “I don’t think you’re going to see a shutdown,” he said. Senate leaders on Tuesday signaled support for the deal and for advancing it swiftly, with both parties urging Trump to sign it into law. In a tweet later on Tuesday, Trump suggested he was more open to the deal. “He got a pretty good deal here,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) told reporters. “I hope he signs the bill.”New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post
 
Democrats willing to pursue GOP surveillance abuse claims: Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee say they’re willing to look into potential abuses by the DOJ and FBI in obtaining approval for sensitive surveillance under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. When Republicans controlled the committee last year, they contended that bias against President Trump led some DOJ officials to abuse surveillance authority. Representative Jim Himes (D-CT), who heads the cybersecurity subcommittee, said Republicans and Democrats should work together in “getting to the bottom" of whether there might have been some abuse of the process under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Bloomberg
 
Trump expected to to bar Chinese tech firms from U.S. networks:The Trump administration is poised to issue an executive order this week to secure American telecommunications networks, a move that’s likely to result in the barring of Chinese tech firms such as Huawei. The order, which President Trump is expected to sign by Friday, would give the Secretary of Commerce broad powers to stop American companies from doing business with foreign suppliers. The order will reportedly lay out the administration’s concern that foreign-owned or -controlled suppliers of equipment and services could compromise the security of the United States’ phone and Internet infrastructure. Washington Post
 
Pentagon watchdog to review SpaceX’s certification: A Pentagon watchdog agency plans to review the certification that the Air Force granted SpaceX to launch national security satellites, a key source of revenue for the company. The move comes three years after SpaceX and the Air Force settled a lawsuit that ultimately led to the Air Force granting the company the certification. In a letter to Air Force leaders, the Defense Department’s inspector general said its “objective is to determine whether the U.S. Air Force complied with the Launch Services New Entrant Certification Guide when certifying the launch system design for the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle-class SpaceX Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launch vehicles.” Washington Post , Bloomberg
 
Maria Butina claims she is not a spy: In a series of interviews with The New Republic, Maria Butina rejected the idea that she was spying for Russian intelligence. She argued that instead of acting in secret, like a spy would, she had posted all over social media about the trips she took and the people she met, including American politicians. Instead of espionage, she said, her goal was to improve relations between the U.S. and Russia while studying international relations at American University. If anything, she said, it was Russian authorities she was most worried about getting arrested by, because of her highly visible role leading a Russian gun rights group. CNN


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Taliban name negotiating team: The Taliban on Tuesday announced a 14-member negotiating team ahead of talks this month with U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad. Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai will head the Taliban team, which includes five former inmates of Guantanamo Bay who were released in 2014 in exchange for U.S. Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl. Bergdahl was captured by the Taliban in 2009. The team also includes Anas Haqqani, the jailed younger brother of the leader of the Haqqani network. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said Haqqani, currently held in Kabul, “should be released to start work on the negotiating team.” Seattle Times
 
Russia says U.S. exit from Afghanistan won't create power vacuum: Zamir Kabulov, President Vladimir Putin’s Afghanistan envoy, told reporters in Moscow on Tuesday that a U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan will not create a power vacuum and the Taliban can be a potential ally in the fight against the Islamic State in the country. “There won’t be a vacuum in Afghanistan,”  Kabulov said. “When all Afghans, the authorities in Kabul and the Taliban, reach a peace agreement and won’t fight each other, then they’ll deal with ISIS in an Afghan manner.” Bloomberg
 
 Shanahan emphasizes U.S. commitment to Iraq: Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan highlighted the U.S. commitment to Iraqi autonomy during talks in Baghdad on Tuesday. “I wanted to make clear to them that we recognize our role. We understand that we’re there by invitation, that we jointly share the resources. And that we clearly recognize their sovereignty,” he told reporters of his discussions in Baghdad with Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi. Shanahan’s visit  follows a political outcry generated by Trump’s recent suggestion that he might want to maintain a military presence in Iraq to “watch Iran.” Washington Post, New York Times


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Abrams warns of North Korea’s military capabilities: Gen. Robert Abrams, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, told Senate lawmakers Tuesday that "despite a reduction" in tensions with North Korea, there has been "little to no verifiable change" in the country's military capabilities since President Trump's first summit with Kim Jong Un last summer. Abrams said North Korea's "conventional and asymmetric capabilities" continue to put the U.S., South Korea, and allies at risk, making it necessary for the U.S. military to "maintain a postured and ready force to deter any possible aggressive actions." He also said that “it is unlikely that North Korea will give up all of its nuclear weapons or production capabilities, but seeks to negotiate partial denuclearization in exchange for U.S. and international concessions.” Abrams’ assessment comes as Trump is under pressure to demonstrate progress in his diplomatic opening with Pyongyang ahead of his second summit with Kim scheduled for February 27 and 28 in Vietnam. CNN, Reuters
 
Civilians ‘continue to pay highest price’ in Ukraine conflict:  Ursula Mueller, the UN Deputy Emergency Relief Coordinator told the UN Security Council on Tuesday that “civilians continue to pay the highest price” arising from Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with separatists in the east. In 2019, she said, 3.5 million Ukrainians will need humanitarian assistance and protection services. Briefing on the latest moves towards implementing the only “agreed framework” for halting the guns in eastern Ukraine, known as the Minsk Agreements, Miroslav Jenča, Assistant Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, told the Council that “negotiations appear to have lost momentum, with the main stakeholders either unable...or unwilling to reach an agreement on the key steps forward.” United Nations
 
U.S. and EU close to agreeing on new Russia  sanctions: The U.S. and EU are reportedly close to agreeing on new sanctions against Russia in a coordinated push aimed at punishing Moscow for its aggression towards Ukraine in the Sea of Azov. The measures are expected to be discussed at a meeting of EU foreign ministers next Monday and could be levied over the next two months, according to diplomats briefed on the discussions. One official said that the sanctions were expected to be directed at those individuals and companies involved in Russia’s seizure of three Ukrainian naval vessels in the Kerch strait in November. Financial Times
 
U.S. may delay China trade deal deadline: President Trump said on Tuesday that he would consider delaying a March 2 deadline to reach a trade deal with China, saying the United States might not impose higher tariffs on Chinese goods if talks with Beijing go well. Trump’s comments come as American officials are in Beijing for a week of talks with Chinese officials to try to resolve a trade war that has begun to inflict economic damage in both countries. The two countries are trying to work out significant differences ahead of the March 2 deadline, when, the United States has said, it will increase tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25 percent from 10 percent. New York Times, Wall Street Journal
Related:
New York Times: U.S.-China Trade Talks Face Big Obstacle: Ensuring That Promises Are Kept
 
Guaidó calls for “caravans” for U.S. aid to Venezuela: Opposition leader Juan Guaidó said Tuesday that he will try to run “caravans” of badly needed food and medicine into Venezuela. Guaidó set Feb. 23 as the date for bringing in the badly needed U.S. assistance that has been warehoused on the Colombian border since last week. Guaidó provided few details on how the aid would be brought in from the Colombian border city of Cucuta, except to call for mobilizing caravans of Venezuelans - a potentially dangerous maneuver that could lead to more violent confrontations with the security forces. At least 40 people have already been killed in clashes since the lawmaker declared himself interim president on Jan. 23. Associated Press
 
China talks with Guaidó: China has been holding talks with representatives of  Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó to safeguard its investment, hedging its bets as pressure builds on Nicolás Maduro, the embattled leader for whom Beijing has been a vital ally. Chinese diplomats, worried over the future of its oil projects in Venezuela and nearly $20 billion that Caracas owes Beijing, have held debt negotiations in Washington in recent weeks with representatives of Guaidó. Wall Street Journal




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Editor-in-Chief, Karen J. Greenberg, Center on National Security, Fordham Law School
 
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