Australian Weekly Report

Historic defeat in Parliament for the Government

On the first sitting day of Parliament, the Government lost a vote in the House of Representatives on the medical evacuation of asylum seekers in offshore detention. This is the first time a government has lost a vote since 1941. The Government evoked border protection concerns in its forthright response, positioning this issue at the centre of its re‑election strategy.

The ‘medevac’ bill is now passed into law and facilitates the temporary relocation of refugees from offshore detention to Australia for urgent medical treatment. It shifts discretion from the Home Affairs minister and department to a panel of independent medical practitioners, with the minister now only able to block evacuation on national security and criminal history grounds. The Government states the law undermines Australia’s border security system by removing a core pillar of deterrence to people smugglers – that illegal maritime arrivals will not be allowed to reach Australia. The Opposition denies the changes pose a risk as the law only applies to those already in detention and not to any new arrivals. The Government bypassed a further loss in Parliament on Thursday by extending Question Time substantially to avoid a vote it would have likely lost regarding the establish an inquiry into abuse of people with disabilities. The Government is now expected to support the proposal next week, however.

The passage of the medevac bill has confirmed the Government’s inability to control Parliament, but it has also allowed it to attack the Opposition on national security and border protection which are perceived as areas of strength for the Coalition (see below). The Opposition has judged the shift in public opinion on offshore detainment and the value of highlighting the Government’s loss of authority as worth the risk of triggering a debate it would prefer to avoid. While the loss in Parliament may be viewed as a de facto vote-of-no-confidence, the timing of the election is the prerogative of the Prime Minister and he has stated he will ignore legislative defeats and hold the election in May. However, the Governor-General has the authority to dissolve Parliament if the sitting government is determined incapable of governing effectively. If the Government survives this coming week, it should be able to continue to its planned election date in May. In the meantime, both major parties will use whatever procedural measures are at their disposal to foil the other.

National security and the economy firm as election issues

The Prime Minister has signalled his intention to campaign on national security and law and order issues at the next election. The Government has categorised the forthcoming election as a choice for Australians between its “strength” on national security and the economy or the Opposition’s “weakness”.

In a speech to the National Press Club, Prime Minister Scott Morrison outlined a broad agenda for his Government which covered defence spending, border security, counter-terrorism, drug enforcement, bullying and violence against women. The speech listed the Coalition’s existing spending commitments and its achievements while in government. It also linked Australian security to the Government’s economic plan, arguing a strong economy is necessary to fund national security investments. The address came as the Government prepared to defend itself against a parliamentary loss over the medevac bill (see above). Through this speech and his subsequent response to the medevac bill, Mr Morrison has set the foundation for an election to be fought on the same grounds as the Coalition’s successful campaign in 2013.

...we have embraced tough calls rather than seeking to buy weak compromises for the purpose of politics.

— Prime Minister Scott Morrison in his National Press Club Address

Analysis of latest poll results

The Ipsos poll conducted over Wednesday to Friday last week shows a significant drop in support for the Opposition following the revival of the border protection debate (see above). The Government now trails Labor 49 to 51 per cent, the closest result since last year's leadership change. 

In contrast, the latest Guardian Essential poll conducted before the medevac bill passed Parliament showed the Opposition extending its two-party preferred lead to 55 per cent, up two points from the last poll in early November. The poll found the Government’s primary vote at 34 per cent, with the Opposition at 38 per cent.