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Current Status as at: 12 March 2019
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The security of supply outlook has remained relatively unchanged in the last week—over the next 8-10 weeks we expect the risk of shortage to rise as we head into winter. While the Risk Meter is currently set to Normal status, conditions have been dry recently, and storage is trending toward Watch Status. The Watch status means there is an approximately 1% chance that we don’t have enough supply for the forecast demand in winter. We are monitoring conditions closely and reviewing our assumptions to ensure we are using the most up to date information. Should storage continue to decline, we will begin daily Security of Supply reporting to supplement the information we provide to industry
This week have published two new reports relating to security of supply:
- We have prepared the first edition of our Security of Supply 101 series. This series is aimed at helping industry stakeholders better understand what we do in security of supply, and what our various analyses mean. The first edition is the Introduction to the Hydro Risk Curves – a short report containing general information on the HRCs, explaining how they work, what they represent and how they are calculated.
- We have carried out a scenario analysis on the HRCs to investigate the impact of reductions to gas fired thermal generation. The first scenario investigates the impact of a long term reduction in gas fuel supply or gas-fired thermal generation, with the second looking at the impact of an extended gas transmission interruption. The scenario analysis can be found here.
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Aggregate New Zealand storage decreased over the last week and is at 61% of total storage, this is below the historical average (80% of average) for this time of the year.
Weekly hydro generation over the last 12 months has ranged between 59% and 72% of total generation. Last week hydro generation contributed 59% of total generation.
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Controlled storage remains below average on the New Zealand and South Island hydro risk curves.
Inflows into Lake Taupo over the last week were lower than the historical average for the time of the year and there was an decrease in North Island storage.
South Island inflows were also lower than the historical average over the last week and storage levels have also decreased.
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Generation from non hydro sources are expected to remain at current levels.
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New Zealand electricity usage is about average for this time of the year.
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There was a net HVDC energy transfer to the North Island of 44 GWh last week.
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The spot price, based on available final and interim prices, has averaged $154 per MWh over the last two weeks, this is higher than prices experienced this time last year.
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We periodically update the base HRC data curves and the Simulated Storage Trajectory Curves. The updated files for these are available on the Hydro Risk Curve page.
| Data |
Last Updated |
| Hydro Risk Curve Data File and Input Assumptions |
22 February 2019 |
| Simulated Storage Trajectories and Assumptions |
22 February 2019 |
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The next scheduled weekly Security of Supply Report is due Tuesday 19 March 2019.
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