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WEEKLY REPORT CMAX logo black 18 March 2019
 
 
 
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Australian Weekly Report

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Announcement — NSW election special report

 
On Saturday, New South Wales — Australia's largest state — will hold it's four yearly election. Subscribers to our Australian Weekly Report will receive a copy of a Special Report on the New South Wales election on Wednesday, 20 March, with the latest analysis of polling trends, the political landscape and nexus of state and federal politics.
 
 
 
 

Australian implications of the Christchurch massacre

 
Australian politics has been focussed on last Friday’s terrorist attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, which has been condemned by Australia’s Government and Opposition. The attack has acute political impacts in Australia (both at the State and Federal level) because of the Australian nationality of the alleged attacker and the close links between the two countries.
 

Government ministers and national security officials will meet today to discuss the threat posed by right-wing extremists in Australia. Concurrently, in New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has flagged her intention to enhance New Zealand’s gun laws, as well as information sharing and cooperation with Australian security agencies.

This event will impact both Federal and State politics in Australia. In New South Wales — where this weekend’s election will probably deliver a hung parliament and minority government — the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, which has advocated for the relaxation of gun laws, will probably hold the balance of power and have significant influence on the next NSW Government.

Federally, conservative figures in the Government — such as Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton — have a long-standing reputation of being hard-line on immigration, in some cases criticising the Australian Islamic leaders for failing to drive assimilation. This event necessitates they show a degree of sympathy which may contradict their long-standing reputations, and cost them votes on the right. However, Mr Morrison will probably try to make ground in the political centre to reinforce his credentials on national security and law and order. The Government and Opposition have both condemned inflammatory comments by Independent Queensland Senator Fraser Anning over the weekend, which have received widespread media coverage. The Government will be concerned that Mr Anning — who is also seeking re-election — may bleed-off right-leaning voters in his strongly conservative state. This may impact several marginal seats in Queensland, which the Coalition must win to retain Government.

 
 
 
 

Australia and New Zealand are not just allies, we’re not just partners, we are family.

 
 
 

— Prime Minister Scott Morrison expressing sympathy for the victims of the terrorist attack last week in Christchurch, New Zealand.

 
 
 
 
 

Opposition signals legislating a ‘living wage’

 
Last week, Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten stated his party’s intention to legislate a ‘living wage’ if he were to become Prime Minister. Mr Shorten indicated that the proposed legislation would be a tool to encourage an increase to minimum pay packets. The move firmly establishes industrial relations  — a traditional Labor strength — as a key facet of the economic debate for the forthcoming election campaign.
 

Australia’s minimum wage is reviewed and set by the Fair Work Commission (FWC) at the end of every financial year. Mr Shorten hopes the proposed legislative change would encourage the FWC to set a higher minimum wage. The rate is currently A$18.93 per hour, placing Australia third among developed countries according to recent OECD data. Nevertheless, Mr Shorten and the Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen have repeatedly noted how Australia’s consistent economic growth has failed to produce a commensurate rise in wages. Previously, the Opposition’s main wage policy proposal was reversing penalty rate cuts recommended by the FWC, but Mr Shorten says he will outline Labor’s plan for legislating a living wage in the coming weeks. The proposal is strongly supported by the Australian Council of Trade Unions (ACTU), but critics — particularly in the business community — argue this could lead to a rise in unemployment.

 
 
   
 
 
Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten confirming his support for a living wage at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney Source
 
 
 

OTHER NEWS

 
 
 
 

New US ambassador begins role

 

Newly appointed US Ambassador to Australia Arthur B Culvahouse Jr gave a press conference last week which focussed on Australia’s position relative to the US and China. Ambassador Culvahouse criticised China’s use of development loans to build its influence in the Pacific, while suggesting the US will be increasing its involvement in the region. He also mentioned the ongoing trade discussions between the US and China, noting Australian concerns that a new agreement could affect exports to China.

 
 
 
 

Another Government resignation

 

Liberal Party Member for Reid Craig Laundy has confirmed he will not recontest his seat at the upcoming federal election. Mr Laundy’s resignation from politics has added to the growing list of high-profile members of the Government who will not recontest the next election. Mr Laundy was closely aligned with former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and resigned from the front bench when Mr Turnbull was removed in August 2018. It has been reported that Mr Laundy informed Mr Morrison of his intention to quit politics at that time but was asked to delay his announcement. Mr Laundy’s electorate of Reid is a historically Labor-held seat which rests on a 4.7 per cent margin, so it will be extremely vulnerable at the election without an incumbent to defend it.

 
 
 
 

Government to launch disability inquiry before the election

 

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has confirmed the planned royal commission into disability abuse will be federally funded and established before the election. However, disagreement with Labor-led state governments over the terms of reference means the issue could be delayed into the caretaker period. While this royal commission appears to be more politicised than inquiries into similar areas — such as aged care and child abuse — both major parties will support the process after the election, or risk significant backlash.

 
 
 
 

CMAX Advisory on LinkedIn

 

Stay informed of CMAX Advisory's activities and analysis as we navigate Australia’s political and media landscapes in the lead up to the 2019 Federal Election.

 
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