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Happy Friday, hoop heads.
Let the madness flow through you.
...we have 2 (TWO!) days until Selection Sunday.

Wow. This is really it.


This season zoomed by (they always do), and it's been a joy to see this newsletter audience grow and turn into a bit of a community throughout the past few months. THANK YOU for your incredible support all season long. 

As we officially close the book on the 2018-19 regular season, we're also trying to close another book...

This was mentioned last week, but we are deep in our bunker putting the finishing touches on the Hoop Vision NCAA Tournament Bible (available for pre-order now), an e-book featuring detailed scouting reports and film breakdowns on the entire field, historical tournament statistics and trends, strategy tips for filling out a bracket, and much more.

Look out below for an exclusive excerpt from the soon-to-be-finished product, with a team stats page and a scouting write-up.

For Hoop Vision Weekly subscribers, we're offering 20% off (sticker price: $14.99) with an exclusive coupon code. Simply enter "weekly " — without the quotation marks — at checkout and the discount will be applied.



Note: Are you on a coaching staff and looking to purchase copies for your entire staff? We have "Full Staff" packs available for purchase, as well ($50 per staff).

Ok. Sales pitch over. 

But as the e-book is the focus right now — and most of the weekend's games to be played are not scheduled yet — this week's newsletter doesn't include the usual featured sections (GOTW, Weekend Watch, etc.), but includes a high-level overview of Wofford from guest columnist Matt Giles, plus excerpts from the upcoming e-book.

Next week - look out for a special early/mid-week edition with coverage around Selection Sunday, along with the other postseason tournaments.

 Here we go….

In this issue...

  1. ICYMI: Best of Hoop Vision
  2. Cinderellla Stats: Wofford
  3. Sneak Peek: Hoop Vision NCAA Tournament Bible
  4. Solving Basketball Recap
  5. Hoop Vision Trivia

LOOKING BACK

THE BASKETBALL STUFF YOU MAY HAVE MISSED THIS WEEK WHILE WATCHING OTHER BASKETBALL STUFF 

MINI-THREAD: Ja Morant is the engine that makes Murray State go. Take a look at how Racers coach Matt McMahon sets up Morant for success (3 videos, 1m18s total)

FAST FACTS: After a ton of input and questions around the original mythbusting of the "hard to beat a team three times" cliché, here's an even more detailed dive into the data:
CHART: Breaking down PASE (performance against seed expectation) by program in the NCAA Tournament over the past decade (more detail below the chart)


If this is your first time seeing PASE, it is a fairly simple metric — based on a team's seed line and the average # of wins for that seed line in NCAAT history, how many games are they expected to win?

As you can see in the chart above, Kentucky, UConn and Butler have all outperformed seed expectations (and then some) in the past decade, much of which can be attributed to their runs to the national title as 8, 7 and 8 seeds, respectively. Georgetown and Virginia find themselves on the lower end here, as both programs have suffered early exits in years with high seeds.

[Bonus: see how this looks when it's on a single-season basis.]

VIDEO: Matt will touch on Wofford shooting extraordinaire Fletcher Magee below — here is a supercut of Magee "hop threes" while moving to his right. (1m29s)

POSTGAME VIDEO: How did Saint Mary's pull off a massive upset in the WCC Championship and break Gonzaga's 21-game unbeaten streak? (2 videos, 2m32s)
 
[ROUNDUP EXCLUSIVE]
CINDERELLA STATS: WOFFORD
Excited to welcome Matt Giles (Twitter: @HudsonGiles) back to the newsletter this week with a quick look at Wofford. More to come on the Terriers early next week.

Expect a slightly deeper look at Wofford in next week's post-Selection Sunday newsletter, but a few talking points on the mid-major du jour to tide you over for the weekend as the tournament field takes shape:

Wofford doesn't commit careless turnovers.
The Terriers's turnover rate, per KenPom, ranks 34th nationally, and eighth amongst projected tournament teams (as of Friday morning). According to HoopLens.com, the starting backcourt of Fletcher Magee, Storm Murphy, and Nathan Hoover give the ball away on just 15 percent of their possessions — an exceedingly low rate for a squad that uses just 65 possessions per game.

"From Downtown!"
More than 40 percent of the team's field goals are from beyond the arc, and Wofford makes 42 percent of those attempts. The team leader is Fletcher Magee, whose season percentages—shooting +40% on more than 300 three-point attempts, with a true shooting percentage over 60% — puts him in rarified air with some of college basketball's best all-time shooters, including Steph Curry, JJ Redick, and Buddy Hield (per CBB Reference).

Don't try to make a Cinderella comparison — 2019 Wofford has their own identity.
Despite this being coach Mike Young's fifth NCAA tournament appearance, Wofford doesn't have a clear-cut doppelganger from past tournaments, be it a former Wofford team or another accomplished mid-major from past seasons. Rather, the team's perimeter shooting, ball-handling dependence, and halfcourt flow — the team's points per halfcourt play (per Synergy) is third nationally to only Gonzaga and Nevada — indicates the Southern Conference team may have what it takes to be this year's bracket buster of choice.
 
[Matt is a freelance college basketball writer whose work has appeared in the Washington Post, Bleacher Report, Deadspin, New York Times, and FiveThirtyEight, among other outlets.]
[ROUNDUP EXCLUSIVE]
SNEAK PEEK: Hoop Vision Tournament Bible
As teased in the intro note, a couple excerpts from the upcoming e-book, to be released on Monday once the dust settles from Selection Sunday.

The e-book is absolutely loaded with information — most of which will be relevant long after March, and includes detailed scouting breakdowns of every team in the field. Each breakdown contains a team stats page, a palatable but detailed scouting report on each team, and a film breakdown that hits on the key scouting notes.

Today, a sneak look at Virginia's stats page, and a portion of the scouting report on Saint Mary's.

[A reminder that the easiest way to support this newsletter is to pre-order the full e-book now — and utilize the discount code "weekly" at checkout for $3 off the sticker price of $14.99]

First, a look at Virginia's stats page:

And let's pair that with a snippet of the aforementioned Saint Mary's team that locked up a bid with their big win over Gonzaga on Tuesday night.

(Spoiler Alert: this is only one of three scouting keys for Saint Mary's. Every team in the field of 68 will have 2-4 bullet points, coupled with a film breakdown companion detailing those points...)


 
THIS WEEK'S PODCAST
This week's Solving Basketball podcast featured recurring guest Gibson Pyper, an assistant coach at Cary Academy (N.C.) who posts great video breakdowns and assorted finds from all levels of basketball on his Twitter account (@HalfCourtHoops).

This episode focused on last weekend's regular season finale, with Michigan State outlasting and pulling away from Michigan.

Man, that feels like ages ago now...right?

Episode Links: iTunes // YouTube

HOOP VISION TRIVIA
In this space, we’ll toss out a trivia question related to some analysis that has appeared on the Twitter account and/or newsletter in recent weeks.

Q: Wisconsin turned in the most efficient defensive performance versus a high-major team in non-conference play this season, holding said opponent to 0.68 points per possession in a game in late November...who was that opponent?

Reply directly with your answer (or tweet it to @HoopVision68) to be entered into the next trivia contest.

HOOP VISION 2019 NCAA TOURNAMENT BIBLE

NOW AVAILABLE FOR PRE-ORDER

WATCH SMARTER.

Bracket Strategy

How to best prepare for your office pool or betting picks, and how to find value within the bracket.

Historical Tournament Data
What historical tournament data can tell us about this year's event. Does defense really win championships? Does three-point shooting lead to more upsets?

Team Scouting Reports, Analytics, and Data Viz
  • Scouting reports with x's and o's and scheme info for all 68 teams.
  • Video scouting breakdowns highlighting the strengths and weaknesses for all 68 teams.
  • Advanced statistics for all 68 teams.
Click/Tap Here to pre-order.
USE discount code "weekly" at checkout for 20% off (sticker price: $14.99)
FEEDBACK? SUGGESTIONS?
Part of the goal of launching this newsletter is to gather feedback from you. We’ll hope to engage this community in the occasional poll, contest, or something else along those lines.
 
If you have any feedback on what you’d like to see from this, any general thoughts on the Twitter/YouTube/Podcast coverage...or anything really, please fill out THIS FORM.
Copyright © 2019 Hoop Vision, All rights reserved.


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