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Coalition to achieve slim majority in NSW
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Saturday’s election has returned the Berejiklian Government in New South Wales, delivering a slightly better than expected result for the Coalition in key electorates which will likely provide it with a two-seat majority in Parliament. There were divergent results across the state with a moderate swing against the Liberal Party in most electorates, although not large enough for Labor to pick up the seats needed to win government, and a significant swing against the National Party in regional NSW.
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Premier Gladys Berejiklian is now expected to oversee a continuation of the policy agenda she has led over the past two years. Her focus will be on delivering the large-scale infrastructure projects already underway – including road and rail upgrades and the Western Sydney Airport – and improving service delivery in health and education; an area where Labor is traditionally seen as stronger. Premier Berejiklian now has the authority to make changes to the front bench she inherited in 2017, and can be expected to reshuffle the Cabinet to provide a generational refresh. A new Minister for Primary Industries, Regional Water and Trade and Industry will be part of this change following the resignation on Sunday of the Deputy Leader of the NSW National Party, Niall Blair, from his ministerial role.
The NSW Opposition performed below expectations, gaining only one seat from the Government and falling short of expected swings in others. Despite the short timeframe NSW Leader of the Opposition Michael Daley had to consolidate his leadership, he was generally seen as performing competently ahead of the campaign. However, in the final week of the campaign, he was criticised for recorded comments about the influx of Asian immigrants and performed poorly in a debate. As a result, Mr Daley will almost certainly face a leadership challenge. Shadow Minister for Water Chris Minns — who ran against Mr Daley when he won party leadership — is the most likely challenger. The leadership vote will almost certainly occur after the federal election, to avoid influencing the federal campaign.
The federal Coalition Government will be somewhat encouraged by this outcome. The Liberal Party will welcome the positive results (and psychological boost) from metropolitan electorates overlapping several vulnerable federal Coalition seats. However the National Party will be deeply concerned by the loss of several western NSW seats to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party. Coalition strategists will probably be mindful NSW will likely have only a moderate impact on the next federal election, due to the relatively low number of marginal seats up for grabs — Queensland and Victoria are still expected to be the key ‘battlegrounds’, where the opportunity to form the next government will almost certainly be won and lost.
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NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian speaking in Sydney after the election result Source |
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Leaders respond to Turkish President comments
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Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten last week condemned comments by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan which linked the Christchurch terrorist attack to the World War 1 Battle of Gallipoli.
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Both Australian political leaders characterised the remarks as offensive and invoked the memory of Turkey’s first President Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, who led Turkish forces against the Australian invasion of Gallipoli. Mr Morrison also said the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade would review travel advice for Australians visiting Turkey, despite the Turkish Ambassador’s assurances Australians will continue to be safe in Turkey. More than 30,000 Australians travelled to Turkey last year, many of them to commemorate the Australia New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) soldiers who died in World War 1.
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“I was just deeply offended, as any Australian would be. The first thing that came to my mind was the promise of Ataturk — Ataturk sought to transform his country into a modern nation and, an embracing nation, and I think these comments are at odds with that spirit and the promise that was made to Australians,"
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—Prime Minister Scott Morrison responding to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s comments.
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Labor defends its negative gearing policy
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Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen released a statement this week defending the Labor party’s plan to remove a tax deduction for people who own multiple homes. The Government and other critics argue it would damage economic growth by adding downward pressure to an already declining Australian property market. Mr Bowen stated these concerns were inaccurate and said the policy linked to the Opposition’s overall fiscal strategy of ending benefits to wealthy Australians to make funds available for social spending. With polling showing voters are divided on the Opposition’s negative gearing and franking credit policies, both parties will likely intensify their economic campaigning to tilt support in their favour ahead of the election.
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Major parties manoeuvre on energy and climate change
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Last week both major parties continued to position themselves as leaders on energy policy. The Government announced a A$3.1 billion investment in Toyota’s planned hydrogen production and refuelling facility, which will be based on the site of a defunct car manufacturing plant. Hydrogen production has been a longstanding policy interest for the Opposition, with Mr Shorten announcing an A$1 billion hydrogen plan earlier this year. Meanwhile the Opposition has continued to reveal elements of its emission reduction plan — which it intends to release in full before the election — with Mr Shorten stating his party will consider using international carbon credits. Action on climate change has emerged as one of the central issues for voters in a number of important electorates. As such, both parties will seek to address weaknesses in their climate change and energy policies before the election, with the Government attempting to improve its credibility on the issue and the Opposition managing criticism of the cost of its policies.
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ASD reveals policy on exploiting vulnerabilities
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The Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) has released a document outlining its approach to disclosing information on cyber vulnerabilities it detects. The document emphasises disclosure as its standard response but says it may elect to not to notify the owner if it can leverage the vulnerability to gain valuable information which will benefit Australia’s national security. ASD’s decision to reveal this approach speaks to its recent drive to increase its transparency. The ASD may also be clarifying its position to ease the implementation of the anti-encryption laws passed last year, which requires companies to provide backdoors to encrypted messages. This approach aligns with the Government’s acknowledgement of its plan to develop offensive cyber capabilities, which demonstrates an unusual degree of openness about its activities in this area.
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