Outsider 132
A LAW FOR LESS
Any task you're planning to complete will always take longer than expected.
IT'S FACT.
Did you feel a rush of relief flow down your shoulders on reading that? It is real. That daily frustration of I’ve only accomplished half of what I wanted to do today is a human phenomenon.
Even if you account for a task to overrun and add a time buffer – it will still overrun that too.
Project Managers worldwide breathe that sigh, it’s not your fault!
Hofstader said so!
All of this is called ‘Hofstader’s Law’.
“It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s law”
– 1950's Cognitive Scientist Hofstadter himself.
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UNCOMMON KNOWLEDGE
Why does it feel like no one talks about this in the greater creative industry?
In programming they do. Here's why:
Hofstadter first discussed this law in his Pulitzer Prize-winning Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid, a book popular among American computer programmers.
"The first 90% of the code accounts for the first 90% of the development time.
The remaining 10% of the code accounts for the other 90% of the development time."
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CHRONIC UNDERESTIMATERS
Even way back then before technology had demolished our attention spans, it was identifiable that we underestimate the time things take. Chronically.
LONGER THAN EXPECTED
The Sydney Opera House opened a decade later than scheduled, the Amsterdam North-South Metro line opened a million years later than planned for, list makers unite at the end of the day to reflect on that morning’s to-dos and their laughability. Need we mention FYRE festival?
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THE PLANNING FALLACY
We’re all deluded, but not really. We know that things take longer than expected yet somehow we seem to forget. Repeatedly. It’s cause we are not deluded – we’re biased.
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YOU'RE BIASED.
I'M BIASED.
OPTIMISM BIAS
Too optimistic huh. When people predict the time it takes to complete a task, they make their estimations by considering the various steps they have to take, but fail to imagine the conditions where things could go wrong.
SUPERIORITY BIAS
This is when people overrate their own positive qualities and abilities—and underrate their negative qualities—when compared with others. “This would take someone else three hours, but I’ll only need two.”
BENEFFECTANCE BIAS
Perceiving ourselves as selectively accountable as to what effects the desired outcome. “This took longer than expected last week but only because of that thing that came up. Today, I have full control; so it should take just 20 mins.”
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WHAT TO DO?
Aim lower.
That’s right. Give yourself a break! We already know that less is more.
Focus on one thing.
PERMISSION TO SLOW
What’s that? You have too many projects running at once? You can’t just focus on one?
Dig a little deeper. Where is that pressure coming from?
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Just kidding. It is a classic though so do read that zine.
NOW FOR SOME EXPERT ADVICE:
“Intuitively, it feels sensible to work out in detail what your projects involve, to break them into chunks and estimate how long each part will take.
But the problem with unforeseen delays is you can't foresee them.”
"...The unlikely trick is to plan in less detail: avoid considering the specifics and simply ask yourself how long it's taken to do roughly similar things before.
You'll get back an answer that sounds hideously long, and clearly reflects no understanding of the special reasons why this task will take less time.
This answer is true.
Deal with it."
PLAN SCHLAN
Better yet, avoid planning altogether.
Take an ad-hoc approach (more on this next week), and correct course as you go along. Ready, aim, fire. See what happens next.
What will happen is you will get real feedback! Not guess-timated, algorithm-mated “predictions”.
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COUNTER THE CULTURE
In ‘6 Things’ we stated:
#5 Slow = Counter-Cultural
Engaging in the process of slowing down is counter-cultural...
Move against the grain and see what transpires.
A NEW WORD FOR SLOW
The word 'slow' doesn’t feel quite right though. Slow suggests lag. Being behind. Laziness.
Acknowledging that things take longer than we expect and that it is okay to take that time, is not lazy. It is ahead.
DE-CONDITION YOURSELF
Not everything we do need by immediately consequential. Trade in expectations of instant. Insta this… Insta that…
A joyless way to live.
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SUBVERT
Take this truth and open the space for your best work to happen.
The space and time for your mind to absorb, connect dots, and expulse.
Push back against the mandate to speed! To scale!
Advocate an existence more proportioned to human beings.
More proportioned to what's realistic.
More proportioned to your capacity.
More proportioned to your happiness.
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See you next week.
– Jess
jh@outsider.works
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>>> THIS SATURDAY <<<
Go see live music. Support independent stores.
Reminisce in the non-playlist.
Songs are getting shorter, incentivised by streaming services that pay artists on a per play basis. There are still musicians making albums to be listened to as a total – not just single songs amongst a playlist. It's a side note... remember when we listened to an album front to back! Subconciously anticipating the next song as outro bled into intro.
Go out this Saturday, explore your city and do some offline listening.
Investigate what's happening for Record Store Day where you are.
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