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Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
The Power of Observation

16 April 2019
Many years ago, one of the early drafts of my graduate thesis caught the righteous ire of my minor adviser, Dr. Peter Davies (Plant Physiology). After an initial reading, he scribbled, in no uncertain terms, ‘Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics’ across the top. He wrote this because I had gotten so mired in the statistical analysis of my project that I’d failed to use my powers of observation. I’d used numbers instead of intuition to assess what was going on in the orchard. There were two reasons for this. The first was because I probably didn’t trust my powers of observation since, second, I hadn’t been taught to use my powers of observation first and statistics second. Overwhelmingly, horticultural science places more emphasis on statistical analysis than on how we interpret and describe what we see. 

I’ve since flipped the tables and stats mean little to me these days. Not nothing, but little compared to what I can see with my own eyes and perceive with my mind. I am reminded of this at horticulture conferences when scientists present endless slides of graphs and tables with little a’s and b’s and variance bars. The overreliance on numbers and under reliance on basic observation has created a huge disconnect between ourselves and nature. I’ve largely stopped going to conferences for this very reason. 

That said, I take the power of science seriously and statistics can be a valuable tool to help us better understand the world around us. But it is not an end in and of itself, it is a means to an end. And we should use is sparingly and only where needed after we’ve used our innate senses to understand the world. If we can’t bridge that gap between our inner and outer beings and the world around us then we are nothing more than human calculators, where we’ve learned how to reduce nature to just another transaction.

I say this since below I present a table of degree day accumulations and associated events. I routinely check weather forecasts and IPM predictive models to try and understand what’s in store for the week. They are great tools and should be used as such. But if I want to know if its raining, I go outside. If I need to know if trees are at tight cluster, I go check some trees. If I need to know if codling moths are flying, I go look the traps. I can’t rely on numbers to tell me what I need to see with my own eyes. They can help verify my observations and perhaps provide some guidance so we’re prepared, but they are no replacement for observation. 

So the while I hope the tables and data are helpful, don’t forget to put them aside and just absorb the pure power of nature and everything happening around you. Immerse yourself in the beauty that surrounds us and that will tell you all you need to know. 
Apple Scab - scab season is underway. It's further along in the Hudson Valley than in western NY, but still underway. The traditional way to deal with scab organically is with sulfur sprays. The use of copper, biologicals, and other some nutritional sprays (e.g., cobalt) appear to be having good success as sulfur alternatives. 

Cedar Apple Rust - the first significant cedar apple rust infections are coming up later this week. Remember that cedar apple rust can only come from red cedar and junipers. It can't be spread from apple to apple tree. There are no "silver bullet" organic sprays for cedar apple rust. However, some growers have had luck to spray Regalia plus oil immediately before or after an infection. 

San Jose Scale - scale has been an increasingly important pest in recent year - and more difficult to deal with. In severe condition is can kill kills, in less severe situations it will merely debilitate your trees. Oil sprays are usually your best be, but they need to be applied early.

Other Apple Insects and Diseases - there is nothing too important right now other than those listed here. Fireblight (blossom), obliquebanded leafroller, European apple sawfly, plum curculio, and tarnished plant bug are on the horizon however. 

Stone Fruit - Brown Rot, bactieral canker, and scale are really the big issues at this time. Once we get through bloom, then oriental fruit moth, plum curculio, and tarnished plant bug will need to addressed. 

Recommendations - while I will mention certain products, I won't make any recommendations through this newsletter. Each grower's situation is different and so the control measures will vary. If you need a recommendation please contact me directly at mike (at) knowyouroots.com.
CALENDAR OF EVENTS
1-2 June - The Promise of Biodynamics 2019. 10-3 @ 6031 Brook Road, Trumansburg, NY

29 June - Biochar Workshop. 10-3 @ Apostrophe Orchard, Hector, NY

20 July - Johnson-Su Compost Bioreactor/Microbes Workshop. 10-3 @ Apostrophe Orchard, Hector, NY

3 August - Organic Fertili-Teas. 10-3 @ Apostrophe Orchard, Hector, NY

10 August - Biodynamic Workshop: Focus on the Preps (HJ Wiemer)

Look here for other upcoming
Know Your Roots 
orchards and herbs events and workshops. 
The Promise of Biodynamics - 2019
*PLEASE NOTE DATE CHANGE*
1-2 June 2019, 10-3
Know Your Roots, 6031 Brook Road, Trumansburg, NY

* Last year we discussed the Promise of Biodynamics broadly as it applies to orchards and vineyards. This year we’ll delve deeper into specific practices and aspects, including the planetary influences on plant and preps, the nature of a closed system farm, and energy systems. Of course, we will cover the basics on Day 1 to give everyone a background on the history and practices of biodynamics. However, we will quickly move to a detailed discussion of specific concepts and practices. This year’s course will be divided into two days and lunch will NOT be provided as part of the cost.

COST: $100 for both days, includes cost of all materials.
For more information: https://knowyouroots.com/index.html or call 845-674-5124.
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6031 Brook Road - Trumansburg, NY 14886

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