Australian Weekly Report

Party leaders engage in first debates of the campaign

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten have engaged in the first two leaders’ debates of the election campaign. The debates have reinforced the pattern of the Government attacking Opposition policy proposals while offering to maintain the status quo, but are unlikely to shift public sentiment significantly.

The debates on Monday in Perth and Friday in Brisbane focussed on a selection of key issues which have defined the last few months of Australian political discourse. Climate change (discussed below) attracted significant attention, with Mr Morrison repeatedly pressing Mr Shorten to reveal the cost to business and the economy of the Opposition’s carbon reduction policies. The Opposition’s wages and tax policies were discussed in both debates, most notably the Australian Labor Party’s (ALP) plan to reverse penalty rate cuts and end the franking credit tax concession for self-funded retirees. Border protection resurfaced in the first debate, but Mr Shorten attempted to neutralise the issue by expressing support for the Government’s record. A poll of uncommitted voters in the studio audiences found Mr Shorten won the first debate 25 – 12, with 11 still undecided, and the second debate 43 – 41, with 16 undecided.

While debates are designed for party leaders to familiarise more voters with their election narratives, the nature of Australian politics means the public already sees leaders regularly engage in a debating format. Australia’s House of Representatives has a Question Time session on all 65 sitting days, where the Prime Minister and Opposition Leader interact directly on policy issues, achieving a similar result as a formal debate. In the absence of a damaging ‘gotcha’ moment for either leader, such debates are unlikely to change tack in the overall campaign. Mr Shorten has consistently trailed both Mr Morrison and former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in polling as preferred Prime Minister and will be conscious that the debate format is unlikely to change perceptions on him, especially noting Mr Morrison is a strong performer. Despite this, both leaders have agreed to another debate on Wednesday evening at the National Press Club in Canberra.



	Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten at the first leaders’ debate of the campaign in Perth on Monday last week Source

Liberal and Labor candidates disendorsed

The Government has disendorsed three more candidates, and the ALP one further candidate, following reports of offensive online comments.

The Liberal Party has disendorsed its candidates for Isaacs and Wills in Victoria and Lyons in Tasmania after historic inflammatory Islamophobic and homophobic comments posted on Facebook were uncovered. The Government was seen as having a chance of regaining the seat of Lyons from the ALP and Prime Minister Scott Morrison had dedicated time campaigning in the electorate, including the day before his candidate was dropped. Another Liberal Party candidate has been criticised for online comments suggesting the gender pay gap was because women lacked business skills, but has not resigned. The Opposition has faced similar issues and, having already dropped a Senate candidate in the Northern Territory, it disendorsed its candidate in the Greens-held seat Melbourne over offensive social media posts after days of trying to excuse his comments.


“	This man should never have been preselected by a mainstream political party in Australia in the first place."

	—Shadow Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus speaking about his disendorsed opponent in the Victorian seat of Isaacs Jeremy Hearn. Mr Hearn was removed as a Liberal Party candidate due to anti-Muslim comments.

OTHER NEWS

Analysis of latest poll results

Three polls conducted over the past week all continue to have the Opposition with an election-winning lead, but at a tighter margin than at the start of the election campaign. The Newspoll results released yesterday show the Opposition maintaining its slight two-party preferred lead of 51 – 49 which is the same result as last week. The latest Ipsos and Guardian Essential polls also have the Government gaining support in the final weeks of the campaign, now trailing the Opposition 52 – 48 (Ipsos) and 51 – 49 (Guardian Essential) which is the smallest margin either poll has indicated since the Government’s leadership change in August 2018. Across all three polls Mr Morrison continues to hold a significant lead as preferred Prime Minister over Mr Shorten by 11 points (Newspoll), 9 points (Guardian Essential) and 5 points (Ipsos). While Newspoll shows Mr Morrison continuing to grow this lead, the other polls show Mr Shorten gaining ground in this metric.

Climate change shaping to be key issue

Debate over climate change policies intensified last week, with the Opposition dismissing the Government’s calls for costings of the ALP’s 45 per cent emissions reductions target amid claims it would cause unprecedented damage to the economy. Mr Shorten also dismissed recent modelling on the ALP’s Climate Change Action Plan as “propaganda”. However, he distanced himself from Australian Greens Leader Richard Di Natale, who offered to collaborate with a future ALP government on formulating carbon reduction policies. Mr Shorten will be conscious of the negative mainstream views on the ALP’s formal alliance with the Greens under the Gillard Government over 2010-13. Meanwhile, several independent MPs and candidates have placed pressure on the Government by committing to taking greater action on climate change and block pro-coal policies. With recent surveys showing the environment has become a key issue for Australian voters — particularly undecided voters — climate change has the potential to play a key role in deciding the election result.