Seattle PIT report:  RV count is the issue

When the Seattle's All Home Acting Director Kira Zylstra stated "This year’s results and our local system’s data indicate progress," a careful review of the Seattle 2019 PIT Report does not support this statement.  Nearly all of the decrease in the 2019 (12,112 to 11,199) came from a 36% drop  (1198 people) in the estimate of people living in Cars/Vans, RVs .  The 2018 number represented a jump of 1,058 people living homeless in vehicles compared to 2017 . Looking the graph below show for the 2017 to 2019 period, it appears highly likely that the 2018 vehicle count is an anomaly and likely not valid.  Certainly, the fluctuation is significant enough to refrain from making a conclusion.  




Two factors appear to be impacting the drop from 2018 to 2019.  The multipliers employed in  2018 are significantly different than in 2019.  The RV multiplier for 2018 was 1.80 and nearly 50% lower for 2019 at 1.42 (see chart below).  If you adjust the total count of RV persons in 2018 to the 2019 multiplier, you reduce the 2018 from 1,730 to 1394, or 336 lower.  Similarly, the Van estimate is reduced from 479 to 338, or 139 fewer.  The estimation of people in cars is increased from slightly from 1,163 to 1,237, or 74 higher.  In total, the multipliers for vehicles account for nearly half the difference between 2018 and 2019.  Given that there is no stated reason to believe that RV usage has decreased, the remaining variance is most likely due to count implementation differences.



What Ms. Zylstra should have told the public is the following:
 "There are differences in our counting methods which prevent an ability to compare yearly counts due to the difficulties in estimating the number of people living in vehicles.  The sudden rise in 2018 and subsequent drop in 2019 leads us to believe our 2018 may have large amounts of error." 
 

HUD: Disaggregate the Unsheltered !

Many cities have started disaggregating their unsheltered counts into five or six groups including encampments (legal and sanctioned), cars, vans, abandoned buildings, RVs/campers and living on the street/outside.  There are significant differences and solutions for each of these populations.   Many people question whether the RV person count should be included in the homeless count - or noted in the report but omitted in the final count. The NHIP urges communities to tell HUD this PIT change is needed.  Homeless science needs to get more sophisticated. 
 

New York City reports small decrease in unsheltered 

The NYC Department of Homeless Services yearly HOPE COUNT reported a 2% decrease in the number of persons estimated to be homeless on January 29th 2019.  A total of 3,588 persons were estimated compared to 3,675 persons in 2018.  The graph below shows the estimate since 2010 with the temperature on the night of the count. The Count has been criticized by local NYC advocates who claim the number reported underestimates the average daily count.



 

Los Angeles:  Large unsheltered increases, whites underserved by shelter programs

The Los Angeles Continuum of Care reported a 12% increase in total homelessness rising to 56,257 compared to 49,955 in 2018.  Unsheltered homelessness in the entire county which includes Long Beach, Pasadena and Glendale rose to 44,214 up 12% from 39,396 including increases among chronic homelessness, youth and military veterans.  The LA CoC reports 16,528, or about 35% of unsheltered living in vehicles.  The report released to date does not delineate the number in cars vs. RVs vs. Vans, or provide details on the multipliers or other methodology employed.
Males continue to exceed females by a 3:1 ratio among unsheltered persons.  Persons of Asian descent were the only group to experience a decrease in prevalence in the one-day estimate.  

People identifying as "Black/African American" represented 33% of the overall homeless population compared to 25% of the population identifying as "White."  A review of the utilization of shelter services shows that Blacks represented 50% of the shelter population, while Whites represented only 13% of the sheltered population.  Combing the prevalence and shelter utilization, whites are approximately 3 times less likely compared to blacks to access public shelters based on their homeless prevalence.  To read the LA CoC public presentation about the 2019 PIT Count released last week, please CLICK HERE.

Update from CA CoC counts

The HUB for Urban Initiatives released an updated report comparing 2017 and 2019 PIT count among the 43 CoCs in California.  With more than 30 reported, only 5 CoCs have shown decreases over the past two years.  In addition, most of the decreases in those CoCs have been related to reduce shelter capacity, not reduced unsheltered homelessness.  To read the full brief, please click on the graph below.

Have a Nice Day -
The NHIP