Avi Melamed

 Belly Dancing in Baghdad

 
Information:
On July 2, 2019, Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abd al-Mahdi, issued Decree 237.

Decree 237 makes the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) known as Al-Hashd al-Sha'bi, part of the Iraqi army. Going forward they will be subject to Iraqi army orders and regulations and be under the command and control of the Army's Supreme Commander – the Iraqi Prime Minister. Accordingly, the PMU units will have formal Iraqi military titles (Brigade, Battalion, Division, etc.) and PMU personnel will have Iraqi military ranks. Abd al-Mahdi declared that going forward it will be illegal for any armed faction to operate under the command of the PMU either openly or secretly.

Units that choose not to join the Iraqi armed forces will be permitted to carry weapons only for two purposes -protecting their offices and their leaders.

Decree 237 has been welcomed across the board both by Iraqi leaders who support Iran and those who resent Iranian intervention in Iraq.

Notable anti-Iranian supporters include Senior Shi’ite Cleric and Iraqi political leader, Muqtada al-Sadr, head of the largest Iraqi political coalition – Saeroun (“Marching On”) and the leader of the paramilitary force, Saraya al-Salam (The Peace Companies). In addition, leaders of some of the most powerful Iranian-backed PMU militias, including Asa'b Ahl al-Haq (Band of the Righteous) and the Badr Militia support the Decree as well.
 
Analysis:
Evolution of the PMU
Following the downfall of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003 - and particularly in the last decade, Iran has deepened its intervention and influence in Iraq.

On June 10, 2014, ISIS defeated the Iraqi army in Mosul - the 2nd largest city in Iraq. In response READ MORE 
 

July 4, 2019
   
Muhammad Morsi (August 20, 1951 – June 17, 2019)
On Monday June 17, 2019 former Egyptian President (June 2012 – July 2013) Muhammad Morsi passed away.

Morsi was elected the fifth president of Egypt in June 2012. In July 2013 he was ousted in a military coup led by then Egyptian Defense Minister, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the current Egyptian president. Since the coup Morsi was in prison awaiting trial. He died in the courtroom. Fearing his death would spark mass riots, Egyptian authorities buried Morsi the same night.

Though Morsi technically ran and was elected as an independent – and not a Muslim Brotherhood candidate – prior to his Presidency, Muhammad Morsi was the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) movement in Egypt. And clearly as President, Morsi strived to implement the MB agenda.
 

June 17, 2019
The same day Morsi died, Abdul Majid al-Zuneibat, the head of the Muslim Brotherhood Society (MBS) which is the reform wing of the MB in Jordan, held a Press Conference in which he presented the political doctrine of MBS.  

These two events on June 17^th – the death of Morsi and the announcement of the MBS doctrine, reflect the turbulence the Muslim Brotherhood has experienced following the public outcry, protests and demonstrations across the Middle East which erupted in late 2010 -  known as "The Arab Spring.”
 
The Muslim Brotherhood
The Muslim Brotherhood Jamaat al-Ikhwan al-Muslimin, was founded in Egypt at the end of the 1920’s by Hassan al-Banna, an Egyptian scholar, teacher and Iman (preacher). Today the Muslim Brotherhood is the largest mass movement in the Sunni Muslim world, with chapters in all Muslim states and in some non-Muslim states.

The Jordanian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood was formed in 1946. Al-Zuneibat led the MB in Jordan at end of the 20^th and beginning of the 21^st century. In 2015, he and other reformist MB members severed ties with the MB, created MBS, and declared the MBS the only MB representative in Jordan.  

As the most prominent representative of Political Islam*, the Muslim Brotherhood, believes that Islam is a cohesive and comprehensive religious, moral, political, social, and economic structure given to mankind by Allah. Therefore, the Islamic religious codex - the Shari'ah (literally translated “the path”) must be implemented in every aspect of human existence. Their slogan “Islam is the Solution” demonstrates that to the Muslim Brotherhood and their adherents, Islam is flawless. READ MORE 

June 25, 2019

June 24, 2019
 

 

The downing of a U.S drone by Iran on June 20th and the restrained US response reflects a dangerous loop in the Arab Gulf which significantly increases the likelihood of an US - Iranian military confrontation.

The Iranians current policy vis-à-vis the crisis in the Gulf is guided by three assumptions: 

1. The U.S does not want a war with Iran

2. Iran will have to go back to negotiating table

3. Iran wants to monetize the crisis in the Gulf to strengthen their negotiating hand

Guided by these assumptions, the Mullah regime has an incentive to continue its calculated provocations: 

1. It sends a message to the Iranian people that the regime is stable and powerful despite the sanctions; 

2. Continuing the cycle of attacks without risking a military confrontation with the US enables the regime to enhance its posture as a determined, powerful force that successfully confronts the leading superpower in the world, and further its image as a hegemonic regional power; 

3. The instability that Iran creates in the Gulf through the launching attacks on diversified targets increases the price of oil which holds a twofold benefit for the Mullah regime - it will increase the Mullah regime’s oil revenues, and demonstrate that ignoring Iran's needs and interests could harm the global economy. 

The U.S and Iran are caught in a dangerous loop which makes armed confrontation all but inevitable. READ MORE 

May 10, 2019
 

The Israeli Palestinian Violence of May 4 – 6 |
A  Hot Summer Ahead…
 

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