Progressive Agriculture Update

Hi all,
Here is the latest Progressive Agriculture Update for you to enjoy!

Cheers,
Andrew Bomm

Opening prices
Not much trade is happening yet, with best guesses for temporary prices being around $600-620/ML. Only significant volumes in the coming weeks will provide a reliable indication.

With choke trade closing quickly at the beginning of the season, and an impending review of Goulburn IVT, all eyes are on whether there is a premium for temporary water in trading zones below the choke.

Too much lower Murray horticulture demand
I’d encourage all irrigators to get across the issues outlined in the report linked below. Aither has laid out the problem of permanent nut crop demand in the lower Murray, likely to be 1550GL as trees mature. It paints a challenging picture of less supply than demand in the below choke trading zones during dry years, and the consequences for carryover use and inter valley/choke trade settings.

Check It Out Here

NSW Murray General Security
With limited supply from the Murrumbidgee, the large volume of NSW Murray GS entitlement (1675GL) is a crucial part of the risk management strategy for lower Murray irrigators with fixed requirements. Two reasons are:

1. The 50 per cent carryover option during average or better years, including 10 per cent risk free.

2. Limited cropping competition in MIL above $200/ML.

Ironically, it’s the demand from downstream that is causing system losses and undermining the allocation against Murray GS. Choke trade is also likely to be a factor limiting downstream trade from MIL customers.

If MIL steps up to help resolve choke capacity issues via its channel infrastructure, will it undermine the efficiency of the MIL network by encouraging use downstream? There’ll need to be plenty of conveyance incentives to justify helping deal with constraints.

Spring outlooks
The BOM’s latest outlook is here. Let’s ignore the three month version as it’s too unreliable – here’s what they’re saying about August.

Senator Perin Davey
Congratulations to Perin Davey on her election to the Senate. Hopefully her sane presence there can help educate our other elected representatives about water policy and other important rural issues, and apply more effective scrutiny to departments during Senate Estimates. Here’s her being interviewed on Sky News After Dark.

Check It Out Here

Grain storage
GRDC have put out a range of information on the economics and practicalities of grain storage.

Check It Out Here

The bookies love ScoMo
Coalition $1.72
ALP $2.10

How good is cricket in winter?
If you’ve got some car travel to do, check out this podcast about the 1999 Cricket world Cup.

Listen Here

Weather index gathering
We’re holding a gathering of irrigators interested in weather index derivative options to hedge allocation risk. It’s in Griffith on the evening of 13 August. Give me a shout if you’re keen to come along.

Blood pressure status: rising
It’s pretty grim on social media at the moment with plenty of fake news getting around. If you want a bit of a laugh, ‘Shit Towns of Australia’ on Facebook is a celebration of regional towns in an unusual way.

Check It Out Here

The Ashes are coming
More cricket. Let’s look back 30 years to the 1989 Ashes series in England and Terry Alderman’s complete dominance.

Watch Here

Follow @progressiveagri on Twitter

Our mailing address is:
andrew@progressiveagriculture.com.au

Want to change how you receive these emails?
You can update your preferences or unsubscribe from this list

This email was sent to <<Email Address>>
why did I get this? unsubscribe from this list update subscription preferences
Progressive Agriculture · 13/120 Fitzmaurice Street · Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650 · Australia