Current Situation:
National storage continues to decline but remains above average at 104%. North Island storage has dropped below average to 88%.
New Simulated Storage Trajectories:
We have published the Simulated Storage Trajectories for August which show no sequences crossing the Watch or Alert status curves. The modelling indicates that even under the worst historic inflow sequence, the risk of shortage will remain low during 2019 and 2020. We are investigating the impact of fuel restrictions over the 2020 HVDC outage to ensure sufficient generation is available during this time. Keep an eye out for these scenario analyses over the coming weeks.
In case you missed it:
Last week we introduced the changes to our reporting outlined in the new SoSFIP. These changes included renaming the Hydro Risk Curves (HRCs) to Electricity Risk Curves (ERCs), and some changes to the treatment of contingent storage, as well as a collection of new charts. The methodology for calculating Watch and Alert status has changed to a “Time to Official Conservation Campaign” approach, see here for more information.
An HVDC outage was carried out recently to replace Pole 2 voltage measuring equipment. The System Operator will continue to monitor for oscillations over the next three months. If there is a reoccurrence then action will be taken in line with what has been outlined in this CAN. If no oscillations are observed during this period, then the SO will consider the oscillation issue likely resolved.
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