Security of Supply and Capacity
Energy
National hydro storage remains high at 150% of the historical average for this time of year. Inflows continue to be above average however high hydro generation has caused North Island hydro storage to decrease by 12.3%, and South Island storage to increase by 2.4%
Capacity
Last week's generation capacity remained comfortable with a lowest residual generation margin of 541 MW.
We note at the time of writing the System Operator has issued a low residual CAN for the 6th of September (today) evening peak reflecting an early spring cold snap and declining wind generation.
Our NZ Generation Balance planning tool now indicates that there are several days in September with a potential generation shortfall if two major assets on the grid were to fail. In general as we move further into spring, margins typically improve as peak demand drops away. Please click here for more information.
Electricity Market Commentary
Weekly Demand
National demand remained steady last week at 805 GWh with warmer temperatures continuing. Demand peaked on Wednesday 07:30 at 6,367 MW as cold temperatures were seen in the morning across the country. Moving forward we expect demand to gradually drop off as we move further into spring.
Generation Mix
The proportion of hydro remains high at 70% of the generation mix and wind generation remains at 6% of the energy mix. The average contribution of renewable generation remains high at 93% of the generation mix for the week, with thermal generation making up just 4.2%. Wind generation picked up towards the end of the week.
Weekly Prices
Average prices remained low last week again in alignment with a high proportion of hydro generation and milder temperatures. The average price at Haywards was $7/MWh. Prices tended to remain below $10/MWh during the week, with higher prices correlating with the daily peak demands at the start of the week.
HVDC
HVDC transfer was, again, entirely northward last week reflecting high hydro storage and South Island hydro generation and low North Island wind generation. Peak transfer was 966 MW northward on Tuesday to support the North Island evening peak demand.
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