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MONTHLY JOURNAL
MAY 2022

If you're a devoted follower of our content, you might assume that we only consume media that agrees with our worldview (or long-term outlook). However, this is not always the case. For example, I have a subscription to The FT and other well known financial papers in order to stay updated on what the stock pickers and crypto crowd have to say.

In a recent issue of Barron's (an American financial magazine) they addressed "27 Ways to Beat the Market" with stock selections from a legendary panel of active managers. Many experts began their commentary by admitting that their picks from last year were unsuccessful, but claimed that this year would be different. While we cannot imagine making stock picks with our/your life savings, we do have a view of where we are and where we're headed. Our outlook doesn't sell magazines, but results don't come from guesswork, gurus, or the media. Instead, they derive from the trifecta of patience, discipline, and academic evidence. But you already knew that.

Here's to the odds of success being on your side!

Image of the month
By Carl Richards

Many people spend a lot of time and energy focusing on things that they can’t control and that are not important. This can be particularly true regarding investments and retirement planning.

So, one part of our role as real financial planners is to help you to avoid the noise and distractions that can blow a great financial plan off course.

EXPLORING THE ISSUES YOU CAN’T CONTROL

Financial adviser Carl Richards, the author of Behavior Gap (and the creator of the illustration above), tells this story:

“My son, who was ten at the time, was playing lacrosse. My Mom came to watch. It was a beautiful, sunny fall day, with a crisp blue sky. It was a great day for a father to be watching one of their kids do something cool, and it should have been an amazing day for my Mom.

“But I could see as she walked to the game, like a hundred metres away, that something was wrong. She sat down and I said, “Mum, what’s wrong?” She said, “Oh, nothing,” and I said, “No really, what’s wrong?” She said, “The dollar. I’m just so worried about the dollar. It could collapse.

“My Mom, as far as I’m concerned, controls the universe, but she has no control over what happens to the dollar. So, we started talking about that intersection of these two circles — things that matter and things that you can control. Because if it doesn’t matter, why are you worried about it? And if you can’t control it, why are you worried about it, other than to plan around it?

“If we can think about the intersection of things that both matter and that we can control, that’s really where we should focus, because that’s what will make a difference.”

Many people worry about the performance of the markets, changes to the law, or how one major currency is performing against another. However, it’s important to remember that there are a lot of things over which you have no control:

  • Stock market performance
  • Geopolitics
  • Trade relationships between nations
  • Corporate performance and profits
  • Inflation
  • Retail sales
  • Gross Domestic Product
  • Tax rates and laws
  • Interest rates
  • The weather
  • Who the next James Bond is

Instead of worrying about whether the FTSE is up or down, you should let go of the things you cannot control and focus on what you can control, namely, your own behaviour. By doing this, you’re likely to be much happier and you’ll avoid undermining the returns your investments can earn.

Remember that the investment process only matters to the degree that it will influence your behaviour. Your portfolio may not be the absolutely most efficient thing in the world, but if it will help you to reach your goals, then it’s good enough.

The good news with investing, and with wealth management more broadly, is that if you were to make a list of all the things that actually matter, most of them are factors you have control over. These include:

  • Asset allocation
  • Your goals and aspirations
  • Your behaviour
  • Your mindset
  • Your work ethic

That means our job is to keep you on track, ignoring the noise and helping you achieve those things that are most important to you. That sometimes means talking about the nature of the financial markets and helping you to understand issues such as risk and volatility – the aspect of investing that we have no control over.

By building a financial plan with you, and regularly reviewing it in light of your goals and the ‘uncontrollable’ factors above, we can help you to stay on course.



Have The Tech Giants Been DeFAANGed?

Kevin Wood

When a stranger finds out I work in financial services, he or she might say something like “What do you think of this market?” or “I have owned ____ stock for years. Thinking about selling some, what do you think?” My reply is typically a tactful version of “I think in decades, not days. I like capitalism, not betting on individual companies.”  As long view thinkers, you too are likely trying to reroute conversations with friends toward the truth around investing. Consider the example above about what happens when investors expect FAANG stocks to continue the extraordinary performance of recent years. They must be disappointed by their returns in 2022. Four of the five stocks lagged the broad US market through May 5, with Amazon, Facebook (now known as Meta), and Netflix suffering big-time losses. The group collectively underperformed the Russell 3000* Index by nine percentage points.

This year’s reversal is a reminder that investors should be cautious when assuming past returns will continue in the future. FAANG stock performance in recent years reflected these companies achieving financial success that exceeded most investors’ expectations. That’s in the past, though. Even if these companies sustain their success (and things have been looking gloomy for Netflix!), it may not translate to spectacular future returns. Excellence from the FAANGs may now be the expectation and not the basis for above-market returns.

*The Russell 3000 Index is a capitalisation-weighted stock market index that seeks to be a benchmark of the entire U.S stock market.

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