One direction? As our poll tracker shows, Gustavo Petro has been the frontrunner throughout Colombia’s presidential race, leading pundits to posit that the country could finally elect its first leftist leader.

But hold up one moment. Ahead of Sunday’s first round, outsider candidate Rodolfo Hernández began a quick ascent in the polls, narrowing in on second-place rival Federico Gutiérrez and putting runoff dynamics in flux.

El Tiempo Senior Analyst Ricardo Ávila Pinto says a second round on June 19 is all but assured. Not only that, but facing Hernández would complicate the game for Petro. “People are tired of the ‘same as usual,’” explains Ávila Pinto in an AS/COA Online interview. “What [Petro] needs in the second round is to have Federico Gutiérrez as his opponent because Gutiérrez represents continuity.”

And, if the election outcome ends up being close and Petro doesn’t win, Ávila Pinto expects he’ll “try to create some havoc.” Read the expert Q&A.

Explore the candidates in our explainer.

See what else is coming up in Latin American elections in our guide to 2022 votes.

Guess who’s coming to dinner. It turns out most Latin American leaders are marking “yes” on their Summit of the Americas RSVP cards. Check out our chart.

What’s coming up in Latin America? 

• June 5: Mexico holds gubernatorial elections in six states. 

• June 19: Gabriel Boric marks 100 days in office as president of Chile.

THEY SAID WHAT?

• The White House designates Colombia as a major non-NATO ally. (El Colombiano)

• El Salvador extends rights-suspending state of exception for a third period. (AP)

• Uruguay’s president says Mercosur is considering signing trade pacts with China, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. (El Observador)

• Peru’s president swaps in four new ministers and says more changes are coming. (Gestión)

As days pass with the Mexican president’s attendance at the LA Summit of the Americas in doubt, an infographic by the U.S.-Mexico Foundation in Forbes México shows the ties that bind on the bilateral border.
 

Number of crossings of any type–whether by foot, train, car, or bus—from Mexico into the United States in 2021.

27.3 million

Number of crossings in San Ysidro on Mexico’s border into California alone.

$550 billion

Value of goods traded at the border in 2021.