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Building capacity to help Africa trade better
tralac Newsletter • Issue 44 • September 6, 2022

Welcome to the tralac newsletter

 

In this tralac Newsletter, we cover topics ranging from standard issues (such as dispute settlement and developments in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)) to new trade-related disciplines that require attention when negotiating additional agreements with a continental reach. An example of the latter is digital trade. This newsletter contains a contribution on digital trade principles, and it discusses what outcomes to focus on when negotiating the AfCFTA Protocol on digital trade, and why.
 
In John Stuarts’s Blog on Digital Trade in Trade Agreements, there is a paragraph which merits repeating here: “Markets function best when regulatory intervention is for welfare-raising reasons, such as the regulation of competition, prevention of price distortions, prevention of the abuse of market power and the facilitation of the flow of information. Regulatory measures for the sake of increasing tax receipts, surveillance and discriminating against foreign suppliers are not efficiency raising but rather create costs, distort prices, and flows of services and ultimately compromise the business sector and growth.
 
This observation applies to other trade-related disciplines too, as well as to domestic policies. The considerations listed in Gerhard Erasmus’ Blog, The role of Negotiating Principles in the design of the AfCFTA, are guiding principles for trade governance and policy making generally. Trade governance and trade policy should be a coherent and integrated enterprise. Governments should focus on a number of policy areas simultaneously. Industrial policy, for example, will not succeed unless there are also strategies in place on attracting and facilitating investment, skills development, improving trade facilitation in general, and undertaking regulatory reforms. Transparency and respect for the rule of law should also be on this list.
 
That brings us to an important feature of the AfCFTA: it is a member-driven Free Trade Area. (This aspect is discussed in the Trade Report, Why legal Certainty and Remedies matter for African Trade and Integration). In a Free Trade Area (FTA), the State Parties retain policy space over matters such as the use of the import tariff for industrialisation, concluding trade agreements with third parties, and regulating service providers and investors. This is, we believe, the correct choice for the AfCFTA design for now. A Customs Union (CU), on the other hand, requires compliance with far-reaching legal obligations that impact on Member States’ individual policy space. The Common External Tariff (CET) and the common customs territory aspects of a CU must be enforced. Tariffs and anti-dumping duties cannot, for example, be levied on goods traded among the members of a CU. The CET eliminates the ability to conclude third-party trade agreements individually or to use the import tariff for purely domestic needs. A CU must, therefore, have institutions with the powers to adopt collective and binding decisions in respect of areas traditionally falling under national jurisdiction.
 
When should such deep integration regimes be established? The ideal position would be when the conditions in the Member States are right and deep integration obligations are required in order to advance economic development. Domestic policy, legal and institutional development for complex digital economy developments, for example, also require new thinking about and new approaches to investment, competition policy and intellectual property rights, amongst other areas.
 
In the real world, there are additional considerations such as historical and political factors. Economic integration makes sense in and for Africa, and there is a strong tradition to support and promote solidarity. These are valid objectives. However, when binding legal arrangements are the instruments for anchoring economic integration initiatives, there must be a balance between the ability and need to adopt the required rules and moving forward on the path of deeper integration. This is a specific challenge faced by the AfCFTA. It should ensure an effective arrangement for now but must not neglect the pursuit of the long-term objective mentioned in Article 3 of the AfCFTA Agreement, namely to “create a single market for goods, services, facilitated by movement of persons in order to deepen the economic integration of the African continent….”
 
For now, specific obligations and measures must be adopted to make the AfCFTA regime work. This includes matters such as the harmonisation of domestic regulations, customs administration, and trade facilitation. (See the Trade Brief on Customs Administration and the Role of Disruptive Technologies in facilitating cross-border trade in Africa.) Non-Tariff Barriers in particular should be targeted through joint action and specific undertakings. The Regional Economic Community Free Trade Areas are the building blocks of the AfCFTA. They should be effective trade liberalisation arrangements within the African context and for their own Member States.
 
The AfCFTA has moved into the second phase of negotiations and important new Protocols are being negotiated. They will deal with investment, competition, intellectual property rights, digital trade, and women in trade. Stakeholder involvement should be part and parcel of this process, as well as benchmarking with best practices elsewhere. tralac will monitor these developments and report about them.
 
In this Newsletter, we speculate about the possibility that the AfCFTA State Parties might use the AfCFTA Protocol on Dispute Settlement and move away from their traditional approach not to litigate against each other over compliance with legal obligations in their trade and integration agreements. (See the Blog by Gerhard Erasmus, Will Dispute Settlement Proceedings be a feature of the AfCFTA?). We would like to argue that the AfCFTA dispute settlement mechanism can be an attractive option for the settlement of disputes arising under the AfCFTA Agreement. (The Trade Report attached to this Newsletter spells out the reasons in more detail.) It is better placed than the REC Courts for hearing inter-governmental disputes about compliance with obligations to liberalise trade. Private Parties do not have standing to file applications under the AfCFTA dispute settlement Protocol, while they may do so in terms of rules on standing applied by the REC Courts. Sensitive policy matters are less likely to be referred to the ACFTA dispute settlement mechanism.
 
There are indications that trade under the AfCFTA may start soon. There is the “guided trade” pilot project which will be launched towards the end of September or early October. And there are indications that the AfCFTA negotiations on tariff schedules, rules of origin and trade in services commitments might soon be completed. This will be a milestone event. tralac will report about these developments as soon as the technical detail becomes available.

We look forward to your feedback.
 
The tralac Team

tralac Blog

Will Dispute Settlement Proceedings be a feature of the AfCFTA?
 
It will be a major advance towards rules-based trade if the AfCFTA Dispute Settlement Protocol will be used by the State Parties. They do not settle disputes about trade and regional integration obligations through adjudication. The result is often lingering legal uncertainty.

The role of Negotiating Principles in the design of the AfCFTA
 
Since the launch of the ‘Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA)’, negotiations on trade liberalisation among African States have been based on a specific set of principles. What was expected to happen was “the consolidation of the Tripartite and other regional FTAs into a Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA)”. Things turned out differently, but when the AfCFTA negotiations began, basically the same Principles were adopted to guide that process.
 
Digital Trade in Trade Agreements: Lessons for the AfCFTA
 
Among the goals of African economic integration is the creation of a single market for goods and services, included with this being trade that results from digital-ordering/fulfilment as well as digital delivery. Since it is businesses, and not governments or regulators, that create value, the primary outcome of a digital trade protocol for the AfCFTA should then be an optimal business environment for digital trade, with the minimum of trade barriers within or between countries.

More recent Blogs


Why South Africa won’t hit the gas

New thinking about a US-Kenya Trade Deal

The AfCFTA holds more than economic Promises
 
South Africa’s Intractable Illegal Gold Mining Problem
 

New Publications

Why legal Certainty and Remedies matter for African Trade and Integration

Gerhard Erasmus

Uncertainty is the enemy of endeavours to promote effective regional integration and trade. Business enterprises must can count on predictable outcomes when making investments and pursuing commercial ventures within national jurisdictions and across state borders. The ability of the private sector to deal with risk factors requires, amongst other things, reliable legal environments. This includes transparent laws and regulations and the availability of legal remedies when rights are infringed or threatened. These should exist at national, regional, and continental levels, especially now that the first steps are being taken to start trading under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). As has often been observed of the AfCFTA; it has tremendous potential for boosting intra-African trade “if properly implemented”. Ultimately, regional integration efforts should be underpinned by inter-state arrangements consisting of appropriate and enabling legal frameworks.

Effective and legitimate dispute resolution mechanisms should also be part and parcel of regional integration efforts. When differences arise about whether the right procedures have been followed or obligations in trade agreements have been respected by officials operating at borders or within national jurisdictions, they should be resolved through the objective and impartial application of mutually agreed norms. The parties to such disputes must accept the results of adjudication or other dispute settlement processes as fair, final, and binding. These basic practices are an integral part of good governance and the rule of law.

Booklets

Southern African Development Community-European Union Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA): Booklet

The SADC-EU EPA is a comprehensive economic partnership agreement between the European Union and South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, Eswatini, and Mozambique. Angola has applied to accede to the EPA. It is a reciprocal trade agreement, meaning that both the EU and the SADC EPA group offer preferential market access to each other; however, the EU provides greater preferential and duty-free access, while the SADC EPA group are allowed to maintain protection of sensitive sectors.

To be eligible for preferential treatment under a trade agreement, a product needs to originate (fully or partially) in a country that is party to the trade agreement. The criteria for what percentage of inputs can be sourced externally depends on the specific rules of origin (RoO) contained in the agreement. The SADC EPA RoO are formulated to support the development of regional value chains and enable producers to source inputs from various other countries without losing free access to the EU.

For more info, download the full booklet (pdf)
 

This booklet has been prepared by tralac and Wesgro, the official tourism, trade and investment promotion agency for Cape Town and the Western Cape. This activity was supported by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

Trade in the Digital Economy: A tralac guide

The digitalisation of the economy requires new ways of thinking about competition, intellectual property, taxation, industrial policy, privacy, cyber security, the labour market, immigration, skills, investment and, of course, trade.

Digitisation has contributed to a changing trade environment in many ways – facilitating multinational value chains, enabling the rise of the micro-multinational and giving us new tradeable goods and services. It is also blurring the traditional boundaries between goods and services, blurring the boundaries between jurisdictions and bringing into question the way our legal and regulatory infrastructure operates at national, regional and global levels. Digital permeates every aspect of trade – from agriculture to clothing, from manufactured goods to business services.

Read more in tralac’s guide to Trade in the Digital Economy (pdf)

Trade data analysis and infographics

tralac monitors trade and tariff developments for countries across the African continent, providing summary updates on intra-Africa trade flows and applied MFN tariffs. New data updates for 2021 trade are now available for the following countries:

Benin

Mauritius

Zambia

Ethiopia

VIEW ALL TRADE UPDATES AND INFOGRAPHICS

Regional Resources

tralac maintains a collection of regional and national trade-related resources including copies of the texts and annexes of regional and bilateral trade agreements, copies of various regional protocols, memoranda of understanding and tariff offers, and copies of national legislation and trade-related policy documents.


VIEW ALL TRALAC REGIONAL AND CONTINENTAL RESOURCES

Please note: Free registration is required to download resources.

Latest AGOA news

Annual AGOA Eligibility Review

The AGOA status of  beneficiary countries is subject to an annual review (this is distinct from the fact-finding mission currently being undertaken by the US Trade Commission, and which will conclude early 2021). The eligibility process is currently underway (see Federal Register announcement). The process allows interested stakeholders to make written submissions; these can be viewed and downloaded (also for prior years) on AGOA.info here.

AGOA Forum and Ministerial Meeting update

A few days ago, US President Biden announced plans for a US-Africa Leaders Summit, to be held in Washington D.C. (see this link – includes statements by President Biden and Vice President Harris). It was subsequently announced by USTR Katherine Tai that the US will also host an AGOA Ministerial Meeting during the same week. The AGOA Ministerial has traditionally formed part of the AGOA Forum: South Africa will host the next forum in the course of 2023.

Kenya-United States FTA negotiations launched

Following the initial trade negotiations that commenced on July 7, 2020, the US and Kenya have announced the formal start to bilateral negotiations for a comprehensive trade agreement (see joint statement here). Kenya has in recent years enjoyed a trade surplus with the US. Follow developments on AGOA.info at this link.

Key trade stats for AGOA beneficiaries combined for the year 2021 vs. 2022 YTD to May
 

 
2020
2021
% Change
2021 YTD to May*
2022 YTD to end May*
Aggregate exports to US: $ 18.4 billion $ 27.4 billion + 49 $ 10.6 billion $ 12.4 billion
- - (Share) of AGOA exports: $ 4.2 billion $ 6.7 billion + 62% $ 2.2 billion $ 3.6 billion
Total US import duties on combined imports from AGOA beneficiaries: $ 44 million $ 74 million + 69% $ 19.9 million $ 42.4million

* Excludes Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea, for comparison purposes
 
Top 10 Exporters (AGOA trade only)* 2020 exports to US ($m) 2021 exports to US ($m) YTD to May 2021* YTD to May 2022* Change 2020/21 YTD to May*
Nigeria 499.01 1,412.14 451.71 1,158.75 +157%
South Africa 1,892.49 2,697.49 1,006.94 1,145.01 +14%
Ghana 136.18 324.58 29.52 331.63 +1023%
Kenya 438.27 522.066 20.19 224.25 +11%
Angola 134.19 300.02 104.24 197.06 +41%
Madagascar 197.02 297.41 98.5 146.54 +49%
Lesotho 256.76 291.87 109.14 112.36 +3%
Cote d’Ivoire 69.33 73.89 25.31 54.66 +116%
Gabon 4.01 3.37 0.86 45.47 +5187%
Rest 224 304 68 101 +49%
All AGOA countries $3,897 $6,266m $2,154m $3,551m +65%
 
Excludes Ethiopia, Mali and Guinea, who lost AGOA beneficiary status at the start of 2022.
US imports entering under AGOA/GSP preference were 65% higher in the 5-month period to May 2022 (matching the 65% increase to April), compared with the equivalent 2021 period. For comparison purposes, countries that lost their AGOA beneficiary status at the start of 2022 have been excluded from the 2021/2022 data.
 
Of the leading ‘AGOA exporters’ in 2022, South Africa’s year-on-year AGOA trade grew by 14% (9% to April), a much lower percentage increase compared to many other AGOA beneficiaries albeit off a much higher base and now in second place after Nigeria whose oil exports under AGOA have increased sharply. Ghana and Angola in particular also recorded higher oil exports to the US. Cote d’Ivoire grew its US-bound exports of chocolate and cocoa paste and is now firmly in the top-10 group of AGOA exporters, while Senegal is benefiting mainly from higher AGOA exports of prepared or preserved fish.  

AGOA Quotas

While AGOA offers beneficiary countries duty-free access to its market in approximately 6,500 tariff lines (the remaining tariff lines are mostly already duty-free on a MFN basis), the program is built on the US Generalized System of Preferences, which removes duties on up to 5,000 tariff lines (depending on the development status of beneficiary countries). The GSP however expired at the end of 2020 and has at this stage not yet been renewed; this has in effect significantly elevated the value of AGOA since dozens of countries around the world currently no longer enjoy US GSP privileges (GSP products are also AGOA eligible). Legislation has meanwhile been drafted that could potentially renew the US GSP. Notwithstanding tariff preferences, AGOA does not do away with quantitative restrictions, for example tariff rate quotas or tariff preference levels (such as those applicable to the apparel sector under AGOA). Exports from AGOA beneficiary countries in tariff lines that are potentially quota-constrained face import duties once the quota has been utilized – sometimes these are a global quota, other times specific to individual countries or country groups. Read more about AGOA quotas and where to look up quota fill rates on AGOA.info here.

AGOA and US trade remedies

While the AGOA legislation provides eligible African countries duty-free to the US market in almost 7,000 tariff lines (which combined with tariff lines that are duty-free on a MFN basis means that only around 3% of all potentially traded goods are still subject to import duties), this does not suspend US trade remedies that may be invoked when exporters sell goods to US buyers at less than fair value (dumping) or because of illegal subsidies received in the exporting country. South African exporters of lemon juice are currently subject to an anti-dumping investigation in the US. See an overview of AGOA and US trade remedies on AGOA.info here.
 
Related tralac publications:

Paper: The United States anti-dumping investigation against lemon juice from South Africa: what happened, and where to now?

Blog article: The U.S. anti-dumping investigation against lemon juice exports from South Africa: background, recent updates and next steps

National AGOA strategies

During 2021 a number of new or updated National AGOA Strategies have been published. These – and previous strategies from other AGOA beneficiaries – are available on AGOA.info in the AGOA Strategies section. The most recent publications involve Namibia’s (new) and Botswana’s (updated) AGOA Strategies, which were facilitated through the support of the USAID TradeHub.

Various AGOA-related infographic styled brochures have been updated recently in the AGOA.info Exporter Toolkit, and are available to download from AGOA.info, with more to follow. See for example Namibia, Botswana, Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana, Malawi, Angola, Ethiopia, Mozambique and Lesotho, as well as the textiles and apparel-specific sector document.

AGOA Business Connector

The AGOA Business Connector is an online facility on AGOA.info to help enable trade and business connections between producers, exporters, importers, sourcing agents, trade-related service suppliers including trade finance, logistics and related services, support organisations (such as business chambers and exporter associations and others), both from within sub-Saharan African AGOA beneficiary countries and the United States. Registered users are also able to list their businesses or professional trade-related service on the platform, and to communicate with other listings through a messaging facility
 
> Download the AGOA Business Connector Brochure at this link
> Register on AGOA.info and list your business or service
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