It's hard to think of a sector of our economy that has not been impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic; housing is no different. Supply chain snarls, volatile commodity prices, telework, and higher interest rates have all impacted production. It might come as a surprise, then, that in 2021 there was a slight increase in the number of housing permits issued in the NYC Metro region.
Yet there's less to this than meets the eye. Even a slight increase in the face of historic underproduction is a mirage, one that masks serious challenges to housing affordability in our region. The long-term, structural deficit of new housing is apparent in both our urban and suburban areas when compared to similar regions. And it's even more apparent when we compare the balance of housing and job growth within our own region. Here's what we know:
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Data Spotlight:
Continuing New Housing Permit Deficits
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In 2021, the NYC Metro issued permits for 65,269 units of new housing, a 3.8% increase from the 62,870 units permitted in 2020.
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Municipalities in the Inner NJ subregion permitted the most new housing units, followed closely by NYC. Other parts of the NYC Metro issued fewer permits, with municipalities in the Southwest CT subregion permitting only about 10% of the Inner NJ total.
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In 2021, municipalities in the Inner NJ subregion also permitted the most new units relative to their population. The more exurban subregions of Outer NJ and Mid Hudson Valley also performed well, permitting respectively 38 and 32 new units of housing per 10,000 residents. Notably, however, municipalities in those subregions have been permitting less new housing per capita than they did prior to the 2008-2009 recession. Municipalities in the Southwest CT subregion permitted fewer units per capita than they did in 2020 while those in the Long Island subregion, despite a year-on-year gain, continued to permit the fewest units per capita in the region.
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Since 2012, the NYC Metro has permitted fewer new housing units per capita than other large metros.
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Over the last decade, the NYC Metro as a whole has permitted less new housing per capita than six of the country's ten largest metropolitan areas. Only the Boston, Los Angeles, and Chicago metros have permitted less new housing per capita than our region.
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Both NYC and suburban areas in the NYC Metro have permitted less housing per capita than those areas in comparable metros.
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Excluding fast-growing Sun Belt cities and lower growth cities in other places, NYC has permitted less housing per capita than comparable peer cities. Only San Jose, CA among that group has permitted less housing per 1,000 residents since 2012.
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During the same time period, new housing permits per capita in the NYC Metro's New Jersey suburbs compare favorably to suburban areas in the fast-growing suburbs of the Washington, D.C. metro. Suburban areas in Southwestern Connecticut and New York State (Long Island and the Hudson Valley) have permitted significantly fewer units per capita than suburban areas in the San Francisco-San Jose and Boston metro regions.
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An ongoing jobs recovery in the NYC Metro is putting upward pressure on the region's housing stock.
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There is no set-in-stone, ideal ratio between new housing permits and job creation. But if we take 2000 as a measurable baseline, there were about 0.9 homes for every job in our region. This means that to avoid having economic growth and labor demands increase the pressure on our region's housing stock, the NYC Metro would need to be permitting 0.9 homes for every one job added. From 2000-2008, the NYC Metro exceeded that number, permitting 2.2 new units for every new job added. Between 2009 and 2019, however, our region permitted just half a new unit for every job added.
While the loss of jobs caused by the Covid-19 pandemic may have momentarily relieved some pressure on our region's housing markets, the current recovery is once again putting upward pressure on the housing stock. Already high and rising housing costs foreshadow a worsening housing crisis. If a post-Covid-19 jobs recovery equals that which followed the 2008-2009 recession, continued insufficient production—combined with an already existing shortage—will significantly constrain economic growth.
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This spotlight features DCP's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau Building Permit Survey Annual data files and the NYC DCP Housing Database v22Q2 (for 2010 onward), as well as the U.S. Census Bureau 2000, 2010 and 2020 Decennial Census and Redistricting data for per capita calculations. Data represent units authorized for construction via building permit filings and do not represent units completed or net change (i.e., account for demolitions). Permits intend to represent new construction only and do not include alterations or rehabilitations. Data are mapped by permit-issuing jurisdictions and do not represent the actual location of development within the boundaries of those areas. In 2015, the impending expiration of the 421-a tax abatement program drove unusually high permit activity in. NYC, and thereby the region overall.
Comparative metropolitan areas are represented by Combined Statistical Areas (CSAs), except for the NYC Metro, which is represented by the DCP and RPA-defined 31-county area.
Comparative suburban area definitions: “MA Suburbs”: Suffolk County (excluding Boston), Middlesex County, Plymouth County, Norfolk County, Essex County; “SF Suburbs”: Alameda County (excluding Oakland), Santa Clara County (excluding San Jose), San Mateo County, Marin County, Contra Costa County; “MD Suburbs”: Charles County, Frederick County, Montgomery County, Prince Georges County; “VA Suburbs”: Arlington County, Fairfax County, Loudon County, Prince William County, Alexandria City, Fairfax City, Falls Church City; “NY Suburbs”: Lower Hudson-Valley, Mid-Hudson Valley, Long Island subregions; “North NJ”: Outer New Jersey, Inner New Jersey subregions.
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Have a question about the analysis or want to get in touch? Email us.
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Planning News from the Region
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After seeing rents increase by more than 50% in the past six years, citizens in Kingston, NY are debating whether to upzone all of its single family zones to allow up to six units per lot.
Kingston, NY has become the first upstate city to adopt rent control regulations and many are asking whether other cities will follow; a fraught metric key to those debates? Vacancy rates.
Connecticut's busiest transit line, the Metro North's New Haven line linking the southwestern part of the state with Grand Central (and soon Penn Station!) has just six well-connected, walkable station areas.
The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 includes a lot of carrots, but none aimed specifically at encouraging inclusionary housing.
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What We're Thinking About
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Upcoming Planning Events from the Region
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Public Hearing: NYC Congestion Pricing
Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA)
Wednesday August 31, 2022
10:00am (virtual)
2022 APA-New York Metro Chapter Annual Conference
American Planning Association
Friday October 21, 2022
All Day (Brooklyn, NY)
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Have an event you want us to be aware of? Let us know by replying to this email.
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Visit NYC Metro Region Explorer!
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NYC Metro Region Explorer was recently updated with housing production, demographic, economic, commuting and other data. Visit to explore the latest trends, and don’t forget to bookmark the Explorer on your browser.
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