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The COVID-19 Regional Recovery Dashboard tracks the key economic metrics that help Tampa Bay residents and policymakers navigate the region's path to recovery.

The latest data presents generally positive results. Sales prices of existing single-family homes hit a new record high, and airline passenger traffic in the region increased from April’s count, surpassing 2 million passengers for the second straight month since the start of the pandemic.
 
The preliminary May unemployment rate fell from the April level, reflecting an increase in both employment and total labor force from the prior month. Initial claims for unemployment benefits averaged 2,056 per week over the past four weeks for which data is available, which is lower than the previous reporting period (2,937 per week) yet still double pre-pandemic levels of roughly 1,000 per week. Mobility data trended away from the pre-pandemic mean, perhaps reflecting vacations or stay-cations brought about by the close of the K-12 school year.
 
This monthly update on the regional economic dashboard highlights key trends and changes that our community leaders should closely monitor.

Workforce

Tampa Bay Employed/Unemployed (Bars) and Unemployment Rate (Line)
(through May 2021)

Tampa Bay’s unemployment rate decreased slightly from 4.80% in April to 4.67% (preliminary number) in May. The decrease in the unemployment rate was driven by an increase in employment and a decrease in unemployment. From April to May, employment grew by 20,419, and unemployment fell by 2,274, yielding a numeric increase in total labor force (defined as the sum of employed and unemployed residents) of 18,145. However, May’s unemployment figure of 108,629 is still 56.1% greater than the pre-pandemic February 2020 count of 69,588. Last month, Citrus County had the region’s highest unemployment rate at 6.13%, and Sarasota County registered the lowest unemployment rate at 4.10%. For reference, the unemployment rate peaked in April 2020 at 13.49% and the February 2020 unemployment rate was 3.07%.

Unemployment Benefits

Cumulative and Weekly Initial Re-Employment Assistance Claims
(as of May 29)

The Tampa Bay region registered an average of 2,056 initial weekly claims for unemployment benefits (known in Florida as Re-Employment Assistance) over the four weeks ending May 29. This is a significant improvement from the months of April and May 2020, when weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits averaged 31,300, and a decrease from the 2,937 initial claims per week reported in last month’s Recovery Update. Pre-pandemic levels of roughly 1,000 sustained claims per week would signal recovery. For the week ending May 29 (the most recent data available), 1,563 initial claims for unemployment were made by Tampa Bay residents, bringing the post-March 2020 cumulative total to 651,601.

Tax Collections

State Sales and Use Tax Collections
(as of April 2021*)

Preliminary data provided by the Florida Department of Revenue reflects that, as a region, cumulative sales and use tax collections surpassed the pre-pandemic baseline (April 2019-March 2020) for the first time last month. The initial drop in revenue caused a sharp decline in state sales and use tax revenues (-$235 million). Recent collections have moved the deficit to a surplus which now stands at $1.8 million. Data in this chart was prepared by comparing a monthly collection value to the same month’s value in the pre-pandemic baseline collection period. For example, February 2021 collections were compared to February 2020 collections, but April 2021 collections were compared to April 2019 collections, as April 2020 was a pandemic period month. Monthly surpluses or deficits are added to get the cumulative net surplus or net deficit. Within the region, Polk County has collected an additional $34.7 million in sales and use tax revenue compared to the pre-pandemic baseline total collections, whereas Pinellas County has collected $45.9 million fewer sales and use taxes compared to the pre-pandemic baseline total collections. Sales and use tax revenues are typically reported as collections the month following the sale, i.e. March 2020 collections generally reflect February 2020 sales.


*NOTE: At the time of writing, the Florida Department of Revenue had not yet posted data for May 2021. When available, it will be reflected in the Regional Recovery Dashboard.

 

Mobility

Vehicle Miles Traveled Index
(as of June 18)

Regionally, activity around residences continues to outpace, and activity at workplaces trails, pre-pandemic levels. For the period of June 1-18, regional residential mobility was 5.2% above the baseline and regional workplace mobility was 25.7% below the baseline. Each figure represents a shift (last month’s values were 4.2% and 22.3%) away from pre-pandemic behaviors, potentially incited by the end of the K-12 school year. The measurement of specific mobility by location type is provided courtesy of Google and is an aggregation of anonymized signals from location-enabled mobile devices. A seven-day moving average is calculated from daily estimates of mobility (visits) to workplace and residential locations in each county and compared to a typical pre-pandemic day (from January 3 to February 6, 2020), rendering a percentage value. Percentages reflect the difference (above or below) in activity at each type of location.

Airport Passengers

Tampa Bay Airport Monthly Passenger Counts
(through May 2021)

Tampa Bay is fortunate to have three carrier service airports – Tampa (TPA), St. Petersburg-Clearwater (PIE) and Sarasota-Bradenton (SRQ) – serving the region. Last month, 2,113,987 passengers filed through airports in the region, equaling 506.8% of the traffic seen in May of last year, the second full month of the pandemic. Using a pre-pandemic month as the benchmark, last month’s traffic was 93.5% of May 2019 traffic – a sign of continued recovery. SRQ passenger counts last month were 178.7% of their May 2019 values. TPA and PIE lagged the regional average at 87.7% and 80.2%, respectively.

Home Sales

Tampa Bay Median Single-Family Home Sales Price and YOY Houses Sold
(through May 2021)

Last month saw a twelfth consecutive month of increasing home sales versus the prior year, yet lower when compared to May 2019. Regionally, May 2021 sales of 8,105 single family homes were 47.4% more than May 2020 and 3.3% less than May 2019. Last month’s median sales price of $325,919 reflected an increase from April 2021 and is the highest figure on record. Among the communities of Tampa Bay, Manatee and Sarasota showed the strongest growth in sales of homes, with 75.3% and 66.1% year-over-year increases, respectively.

VIEW THE COVID-19 REGIONAL RECOVERY DASHBOARD
The COVID-19 Regional Recovery Dashboard curates leading and lagging indicators that signal the extent to which the Tampa Bay economy has recovered during the pandemic. The dashboard provides trend lines, and comparisons to pre-pandemic levels of activity, that are updated as soon as new data is available.
The dashboard aggregates the data for all eight counties in the greater Tampa Bay region, to reflect the natural patterns in which we work, live and play.

The data may also be sorted by the gating criteria and viewed by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) or county.
Promising Practices
Is your organization moving the needle on one of the critical indicators tracked in our Regional Competitiveness Report or Regional Equity Report? If you have a “Promising Practice” to share, please contact us at info@stateoftheregion.com, and provide a brief description of your program, along with the key areas it’s impacting. Select organizations will be highlighted in future editions of the State of the Region Community Report.
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Data reported in this email are believed to be the latest available at the time of production, accurate and from reliable sources. For more information, please contact Dave Sobush.

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