TechCast is pleased to conclude this seminal study of Life Extension with results that present an authoritative forecast that is both interesting and compelling.  Go to the study posted on TechCastProject.com and you will find the following conclusion:


"Our sample of 22 experts estimates a 73 percent probability that life extension technologies will become commercially available in about 2043 +/- 10 years. We also estimate that the average life span will crease to about 200 years for most common applications when the technology matures. The data also suggests an "elite" could possibly increase life spans to 500 years or more using advanced applications."


With all due humility, this TechCast study of Life Extension may be the most authoritative and useful forecast available of this critical technology. This study also highlights the power of our research method used here.  Starting with good background data, we drew on the knowledge of our experts to improve this analysis. We then drew a good sample to provide sound estimates, and analyzed the results into a reasonable and compelling forecast. 

TechCast has used this quick method of collective intelligence to study Global Consciousness, The Coming Internet, Redesigning Capitalism, Forecasting the Presidential Election, and AI versus Humans.

Kindly tell your friends and associates to sign up for this newsletter so they can also gain the benefit of TechCast Research.
   

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Second Conference of the Strategic Forum

 

July 28, 2021

 

Foresight Lessons From the Pandemic:

Implications for Strategy Formulation and Response

 
Ideally, foresight precedes strategy formulation, but in moments of crisis normal order must be abandoned and foresight and strategy inevitably unfold together in real-time.  We will offer a set of lessons learned from conducting a major Delphi-based scenario foresight project during the darkest days of the unfolding pandemic and reflect on the long-term implications for how foresight and strategy can more effectively blend in the face of deep uncertainty.
 


Jerry is the co-founder of the Millennium Project with 67 Nodes around the world. He is also lead author of the State of the Future reports, co-editor of Futures Research Methodology 3.0, designed and manages the Global Futures Intelligence System. Glenn led The Millennium Project team that created the COVID-19 scenarios for the American Red Cross and lead-author for Scenario 1: America Endures, the baseline, surprise fee scenario.

 

 

Theodore Jay Gordon
Futurist and Management Consultant

Ted is a specialist in forecasting methodology, planning, and policy analysis. He is co-founder and Board member of The Millennium Project. Ted founded The Futures Group,  was one of the founders of The Institute for the Future and consulted for the RAND Corporation. He was also Chief Engineer of the McDonnell Douglas Saturn S-IV and S-IVB space vehicles and was in charge of the launch of space vehicles from Cape Canaveral. He is a frequent lecturer, author of many technical papers and several books dealing with space, the future, life extension, scientific and technological developments and issues, and recently, co-author of books on the prospects for terrorism and counterfactual methods. He is the author of the Macmillan encyclopedia article on the future of science and technology. He is on the editorial board of Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Mr. Gordon was a member of the Millennium Project team that created scenarios for the American Red Cross. Ted was responsible for the negative scenario that depicted a bleak but plausible future; this scenario contains many assumptions about the unknowns, but in the end seems endurable and plausible.



 

 

Paul Saffo
Forecaster

Paul is a Silicon Valley-based forecaster who studies technological change.  He teaches at Stanford where he is an Adjunct Professor in the School of Engineering and is Chair of Future Studies at Singularity University.  Paul is also a non-resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences. Paul holds degrees from Harvard College, Cambridge University, and Stanford University.

Readings:

• Three Futures of the Covid-19 Pandemic in the US,  January 1, 2022.
  
   

 Complimentary Admission 
Anyone with an interest in strategy, foresight, future studies and related fields is encouraged to attend. 

Conference Begins at 2000 UTC (coordinated universal time) and ends at 2130 UTC

Wednesday, July 28, 2021 
1 pm PDT (Los Angeles, San Francisco)
4 pm EDT (New York, Washington, DC)
9 pm daylight time (London)
10 pm daylight time (Paris)

Thursday, July 29, 2021
6 am standard time (Seoul, Tokyo)
7 am standard time (Sydney)
 

Register Here for the July 28 Conference
 

Offer Donations to the July 28 Conference
 

Register Here for the July 28 Workshop

 

 

PROGRAM

   

Exxon, Shell and Other Big Oil Companies Forced to Address Climate

Exxon was forced to accept two climate activists who were voted onto its board of directors. Meanwhile, A Dutch court forced Royal Dutch Shell to make deeper, faster cuts to its climate-warming emissions, setting a legal precedent that may plague other oil companies. Coming on the heels of the Business Roundtable announcement that overturned shareholder supremacy, is this the end of "business as usual"?







Space Tourism Is Almost Here

Virgin Galactic took two people to the very edge of suborbital space for the first time in more than two years, and its third time overall.  This flight was the first of four planned crewed missions slated for this year, and they will all be crucial to the company proving it can fly quickly, consistently, and safely. Virgin Galactic plans to launch 400 space tourism flights from the site, called Spaceport America. And Jeff Bezos himself is planning to be on board the maiden flight of his space vehicle, Blue Origin, in a few months.  





 

 

Germany Gives Greenlight to Driverless Vehicles 

Germany has adopted legislation that will allow driverless vehicles on public roads by 2022, laying out a path for companies to deploy robo taxis and delivery services in the country at scale. While autonomous testing is currently permitted in Germany, this would allow operations of driverless vehicles without a human safety operator behind the wheel.  With driverless cars roaming the streets of Germany, how much longer can it take to do the same everywhere?
 

 

TechCast always encourages letters, comments, and suggestions.