Highlights
Monitored: During July, the entire Maldives islands received less rainfall from climatology. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 29% in the Northern islands; 11% in the southern islands and deficit by 9% in the Central islands.
Predictions: With ENSO-neutral conditions established; wet conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from August - October 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological.
Contents and Links to Sections
1.Climatology
Monthly Climatology: In July, the entire country usually receives up to 200 mm average rainfall and the wind direction in July is usually westerly but with low speeds wind speed. In August and September, the rainfall in southern and central islands increases to 250 mm while in northern islands it remains about 200 mm. The wind direction and speed do not change.
2.Monitoring
Daily Monitoring:
| Date |
Rainfall |
| Northern Islands |
Central Islands |
Southern Islands |
| 11th- 12th July |
- |
5 mm |
5 mm |
| 13th July |
- |
- |
10 mm |
| 14th July |
- |
- |
- |
| 15th July |
- |
- |
10 mm |
| 16th July |
- |
- |
40 mm |
| 17th- 19th July |
- |
- |
- |
| 20th- 21st July |
- |
- |
5 mm |
| 22nd July |
- |
10 mm |
30 mm |
| 23rd July |
10 mm |
40 mm |
60 mm |
| 24th July |
- |
20 mm |
20 mm |
| 25th July |
60 mm |
30 mm |
10 mm |
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring
In June, entire islands received up to 5 mm above average rainfall. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days, shows for:
Northern islands: Excess of 450 mm from an average of 1525 mm average
Central islands: Deficit of 150 mm from an average of 1700 mm average
Southern islands: Excess of 200 mm from an average of 1800 mm average
.
Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
Click Here- To see monthly and seasonal monitoring pdf maps
Detailed regional charts are available in pdf for Northern Central Southern
Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:
1-10 July, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 100 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 100 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 80 mm rainfall
11-20 July, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 5 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 10 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 40 mm rainfall
3.Predictions
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly and Daily Rainfall Forecast: NOAA GFS model predicts up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands on 28th July; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; and up to 20 mm in northern and central islands on 29th July; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; up to 20 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 30th July; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central islands; and up to 10 mm in northern and southern islands on 31st July; Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the entire islands on 1st August; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the southern islands; and up to 20 mm in northern and central islands on 2nd August; and Up to 20 mm of rainfall in the central and southern islands; and up to 10 mm in northern islands on 3rd August.
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - July 21, 2021)
In late July 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere summer 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook likely persist ENSO-neutral condition through the summer. (Text Courtesy IRI).
 Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.
MJO INDEX
The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 6 & 7 and it shows fairly weak in the next two weeks (28 July – 9 August 2021). MJO shall weaken the rainfall over the Maldives during this period.
Download Printable Report (Part1 - Summary)- Click Here
Download Printable Report (Part2 - Figures)- Click Here
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