Highlights
Monitored: During July, the southern islands received above normal rainfall while the central and northern islands received less. Over the 365 days, rainfall exceeded climatology by 10% in the Northern islands; 20% in the Southern islands and deficit by 15% in the Central islands.
Predictions: With ENSO-neutral conditions established; dry conditions are set to prevail across Maldives from September-November 2021. The seasonal temperature remains climatological.
Contents and Links to Sections
1.Climatology
Monthly Climatology: In September, islands in the northern half of the country receive up to 150 mm rainfall while the southern half receives up to 200 mm rainfall. The same rainfall pattern continues in October and in November the entire country usually receives up to 150 mm rainfall. The wind pattern is usually westerly during these three months.
2.Monitoring
Daily Monitoring:
| Date |
Rainfall |
| Northern Islands |
Central Islands |
Southern Islands |
| 8th Aug |
20 mm |
10 mm |
- |
| 9th Aug |
40 mm |
- |
- |
| 10th Aug |
20 mm |
- |
40 mm |
| 11th Aug |
60 mm |
30 mm |
5 mm |
| 12th Aug |
60 mm |
5 mm |
10 mm |
| 13th Aug |
10 mm |
- |
- |
| 14th Aug |
- |
10 mm |
5 mm |
| 15th Aug |
- |
- |
- |
| 16th Aug |
10 mm |
- |
- |
| 17th Aug |
40 mm |
- |
- |
| 18th Aug |
10 mm |
- |
- |
| 19th Aug |
- |
5 mm |
- |
| 20th - 22nd Aug |
- |
- |
- |
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Monthly and Seasonal Rainfall Monitoring
In July, Southern islands received up to 15 mm above average rainfall while remaining islands received less. The cumulative rainfall during the last 365 days,
shows for: Northern islands: Excess of 150 mm from an average of 1500 mm average
Central islands: Deficit of 350 mm from an average of 1750 mm average
Southern islands: Excess of 275 mm from an average of 1800 mm average
.
Caption: The figure shows the average observed rainfall in the previous month for Northern Maldives.
Image 1(left) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years.
Image 2(Right) caption:-Rainfall of past 365 days (black) compared to average rainfall in the previous 8 years.
image 3(middle) caption:- Rainfall in the past 5 years with above-average rainfall hatched in blue and below-average hatched in brown.
Click Here- To see monthly and seasonal monitoring pdf maps
Detailed regional charts are available in pdf for Northern central Southern
Deckadal Rainfall Estimates:
1-10 August, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 80 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 80 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 100 mm rainfall
11-20 August, Dekadal rainfall estimated as; Northern Islands: 60 mm rainfall
Central Islands: 40 mm rainfall
Southern Islands: 100 mm rainfall
3.Predictions
Daily Rainfall Forecast:
Image caption:- Daily Rainfall forecasts (up to 7 days ahead) from the IMD New Delhi is provided in figures below. These predictions are from the GFS (T574) model covering the entire south. Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
Weekly and Daily Rainfall Forecast: NOAA GFS model predicts up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; up to 40 mm in central islands; and up to 10 mm in southern islands on 25th-26th Aug; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands on 27thAug; Up to 70 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 20 mm in central and southern islands on 28thAug; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the central islands; and up to 20 mm in northern and southern islands on 29thAug; Up to 40 mm of rainfall in the northern and central islands; and up to 20 mm in southern islands on 30thAug; and up to 20 mm of rainfall in the northern islands; and up to 10 mm in central and southern islands on 31stAug.
4.Sea Surface and Atmospheric State
PACIFIC SEA STATE ( Text Courtesy IRI - August 18, 2021)
In mid-Aug 2021, the tropical Pacific remained in an ENSO-neutral state, although SSTs in the east-central and central Pacific have cooled to the threshold for La Niña while the atmosphere continues to maintain largely ENSO-neutral patterns. The collection of latest ENSO prediction models indicates ENSO-neutral or weak El Niño as two possible scenarios during Northern Hemisphere summer 2021. The official CPC/IRI outlook likely persist ENSO-neutral condition through the summer. (Text Courtesy IRI).
 Image caption:- The weekly average the departure of the Sea surface temperature from the historical average.
Click Here- for detailed maps in pdf.
0.5 0C above average SST was observed around Maldives.
MJO INDEX
The MJO is predicted by NOAA CPC to be in phases 1 & 2 and it remains weak in the next two weeks (25 August – 6 September 2021). MJO shall enhance the rainfall over the Maldives during this period.
Download Printable Report (Part1 - Summary)- Click Here
Download Printable Report (Part2 - Figures)- Click Here
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