| |  | Welcome to another issue of SEA STATE, where alongside our fellow service members and citizens, we’ve been watching with great interest the stunning reports from Afghanistan’s capital city in the wake of the U.S. military’s withdrawal from the region.
We are not discussing the fall of Kabul extensively in this issue. If you’ve been reading SEA STATE for the last few months, you know that we have tried to bring you relevant news and analysis about the withdrawal from Afghanistan, like Dr. Mark Folse’s piece on lessons for junior officers from the war, and team member Yash Khatavkar’s poignant reflection on how the history of Hmong-Americans informs the current refugee crisis. For the first time in at least a decade, the mainstream media is saturated with coverage of Afghanistan, and there are incredible journalists on the ground and in Washington, D.C. striving to ensure that we know as much as possible about the situation. We encourage our readers to keep seeking out quality information about the crisis and to keep following this story even after it no longer dominates the front pages and nightly newscasts.
Even though we -- junior officers in the Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard -- were mostly too young to participate in the war in Afghanistan, the two-decade-long conflict has indelibly shaped our impressions of the military and the United States’ role in the world. The withdrawal of the U.S. military, and the manner in which it has played out, will have long-lasting national security and foreign policy ramifications. For those reasons, we will continue to use future editions of SEA STATE to reflect on and learn from the situation in Afghanistan.
We also celebrate the heroic service of many of our Army, Air Force, Marine Corps, State Department, and others who are at this moment directly supporting the withdrawal and evacuation efforts. If you wish to help, there are a number of ongoing lines of effort you can support, including this fundraiser organized by CNN and Public Good, the veteran-led organization No One Left Behind, and these campaigns highlighted over at Task & Purpose. There are also some less reputable fundraisers out there, so please do your research and be cautious while donating.
Thanks for reading SEA STATE and we hope this issue -- in which we highlight some important news and analysis you may have missed this week -- is of service to you. Sincerely, Thomas Krasnican
SEA STATE Managing Editor
| | | NEWS THIS WEEK “Tensions in Haiti Build Over the Lack of Earthquake Aid as Deaths Pass 2000” (NPR): Frustration at the slow pace of aid is mounting in southwestern Haitian communities, hit this week by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake. Coupled with landslides, Tropical Storm Grace, and further weakened institutions in the aftermath of the president’s assassination last month, citizens are angry at local authorities. The shipments of aid are insufficient and, for some, echo the devastating earthquake of 2010: an administration that mismanages and in some cases, refuses international aid. This is not the first time sailors, Marines, and Coast Guardsmen sailed to Haiti for disaster relief missions. Operation Unified Response, after the devastating 2010 earthquake in Haiti, reinforced the value of “mass and initiative” to enable a prompt and aggressive response.
“Venezulan Government, Opposition Leaders Meet in Mexico” (AP): Representatives of Venezuela's authoritarian President Nicolas Maduro and opposition leader, Juan Guaido, have signed a memorandum in Mexico City to soon open talks with the goal of finding a path out of the South American nation’s political chaos. The agenda includes discussing possible elections, renouncing violence, the lifting of sanctions, and economic and social reforms. These talks, the third in four years, take place under circumstances vastly different than those preceding it: the pandemic has devastated the country, Venezuela has the world’s worst inflation rate, and nearly 35% of the population does not have enough to eat. The failure of past discussions has only strengthened the power of the Maduro government, but there is hope that these talks, monitored by the Norwegian government, will have a different result. Given that the Maduro government has ties to drug smuggling, Iran, and Hezbollah and Venezuela is a growing partner of China with the world’s largest oil reserves, Venezuela’s political future is of critical importance to U.S. national security.
“Polish Army Deployed to Belarus Border Amid Migrant Surge” (Al Jazeera): More than 900 Polish troops have been deployed to the border with Belarus to assist border guards with a large influx of refugees, mostly from Iraq, attempting to enter the country. Poland has sealed the border with Belarus and has accused Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko of pushing the refugees to Poland as retaliation for economic sanctions against Belarus. EU Parliament President David Sassoli confirmed the illegality of Belarus’s conduct, saying “I have seen these outrageous actions when officials push people across the border. It is both an issue of human rights, and also a question of protecting the border of the EU… It is an organized activity of the Lukashenko regime.” Amid the rising border tensions, Belarus is preparing for a large-scale joint military exercise, “Zapad-2021,” with Russia in September.
“Explained: PM Gati Shakti Master Plan that Modi announced on Independence Day” (The Indian Express): India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on August 17th that the country intends to invest $1.35 trillion in infrastructure projects, with the goal of becoming energy independent in the next 25 years. The PM Gati Shakti Plan is a significant modernization project with the goal of “[making] a foundation for holistic infrastructure and [giving] an integrated pathway to the Indian economy.” India is a critical partner in the United States’ regional Indo-Pacific posture; this national investment in infrastructure is expected to play a vital role in stymying Chinese infrastructure development in the region. IN DEFENSE NEWS “US and Canada want to collaborate on NORAD modernization” (C4ISRNET): In a joint statement from Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Canadian Minister of Defense Harjit Sajjan, the U.S. and Canada committed to the modernization of NORAD, the air defense agency run jointly by the two allies. Despite the high-level commitment, numerous roadblocks remain, as NORAD and USNORTHCOM commander General Glen VanHerck acknowledged in comments this week in which he identified multiple areas requiring improvement and investment, from sensor technology to joint command and control. While it may not be an agency you think of often, NORAD’s efforts to employ cutting-edge software on an accelerated procurement cycle present a valuable case study in how the military will continue to integrate emerging technologies.
“China-Russia military drill makes room for combined force against US” (South China Morning Post): Both the Russian and Chinese defense ministers were in attendance for the closing ceremonies of a military exercise in northwestern China that sought to enhance the interoperability of the two nations’ armed forces. It was the first time that the two militaries “used a joint command and control system,” according to this article, with Russian troops being used to enhance Chinese formations and carry out PLA-planned operations. China and Russia have carried out exercises together since 2005, but this latest drill is the most advanced attempt to demonstrate the capacity for a major allied operation. Each nation stands to gain much from a partnership with the other: China stands to learn from Russia’s technological and institutional military traditions, while Russia benefits from China’s growing industrial strength. While a strategic alignment or alliance between China and Russia is not ideal for the U.S. or its partners, we should be prepared to see increased military cooperation between them and keep a close watch on this relationship as it evolves. *NOTE: The South China Morning Post, once an independent Hong Kong newspaper, is now owned by state-affiliated corporations and has faced criticism for its increasing alignment with the CCP. We consider the SCMP a reasonable source of some information -- but with a little extra scrutiny. | | | A LONG READ FOR YOUR WEEKEND | “What Bobby McIlvaine Left Behind: Grief, Conspiracy Theories, and One Family’s Search for Meaning in the Two Decades since 9/11” (The Atlantic) by Jennifer Senior | Next month marks the 20th anniversary of the September 11th terrorist attacks. We are also nearing another milestone: the first batch of commissioned officers who were born after that date will commission in the next year. All of us were affected by 9/11 in a variety of ways, even though nearly all current junior officers did not serve until years afterward, and have limited experience of the military and national security pre-9/11. For some families and communities though, September 11th, 2001 became the date for which there was a “life before” and a “life after.”
In this long-form essay, The Atlantic staff writer Jenifoer Senior details a very personal side of September 11th by following the McIlvaine family’s grief and coping in the two decades since they lost their son, brother, soon-to-be fiancé, 26-year old Bobby McIlvaine, in the World Trade Center collapse. For every life lost on September 11th, there were dozens more people who lost a bit of their own life too -- mothers, fathers, siblings, sons, daughters, roommates, coworkers, childhood friends. Each of those friends and family, including the family in Senior’s article, have their own way of grieving and memorializing their loved ones who died on September 11th, 2001.
The author, who was a family friend of the McIlvaines, write that by speaking with Bobby Mcavaines’s closest relatives, ‘something heartbreaking and rudely basic dawned on me: September 11 may be one of the most-documented calamities in history, but for all the spools of disaster footage we’ve watched, we still know practically nothing about the last moments of the individual dead.’ This article is worth an hour of your time, and helps put a face and a name to one of the 2,996 people killed in the September 11th attacks. | | | Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Tell You Everything You Need to Know About Global Politics by Tim Marshall (Edition 2020, Original 2015) We encounter the wonders of geography each day, whether underway in a seemingly boundless Pacific Ocean or backpacking through mountain passes on leave. However, despite our frequent interactions with geographic formations and natural boundaries, we seldom think about the influence of these natural features on global politics. Tim Marshall, a seasoned editor and reporter of foreign affairs, re-focuses our perspective on the geographical features that take a leading role in the calculations of world leaders and shape decision-making around the globe. |  | Marshall does a fantastic job outlining the influence of geopolitics, particularly in areas of conflict. Prisoners of Geography, touches on Russia’s perpetual fear of attack across the North European Plain, the actions China is taking to secure what it views as its natural borders on land and at sea, and how seemingly arbitrary borders have perpetuated violence in the Middle East. While rivers and mountains provide natural boundaries, Marshall goes a step further to discuss the people and cultures that exist within these boundaries and how they have been shaped by the nature that surrounds them. By discussing this correlation between geography and the people that live among it, Marshall is able to describe the roots of tension between different groups that often spill into conflict. The perspectives outlined in the book offer a refreshing portrait of global geopolitics, a portrait that blends land, people, and history into the scene that unfolds in news headlines year after year.
While the discussions in Prisoners of Geography take into account the wide scope of influences that contribute to geopolitical tensions, there is an over-emphasis on the fear of land invasion. Marshall often notes the geographical routes militaries could take to deliver fatal blows to another country, as well as the desire for countries to have a ‘strategic depth’ of land to fall back to if invaded. However, this may be a dated analysis. Many recent conflicts between nation-states, such as the War in Donbas (Ukraine-Russia) or the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict (Armenia-Azerbaijan), vie for strategic dominance in localized regions, rather than domination of the opposing country. Further, advancements in cyber capabilities may enable future adversaries to accomplish strategic goals with limited conventional forces.
Overall, Prisoners of Geography explains the geopolitics that influence daily news headlines in an easily digestible manner. By examining current conflicts and great power competition through the lens of geography, JOs can gain a better appreciation for the underlying forces that will continue to shape the interactions of people and nation-states. | | FOR YOUR FINANCIAL AWARENESS: FOREIGN CURENCY This week’s financial awareness topic comes courtesy of a conversation your correspondent had with a friend. His ship recently home-port shifted from Japan back to the West Coast. While stationed in Japan, he acquired nearly $4,000 (US) of Japanese yen. Since returning to the states, his unspent yen is worth around $3,200. Should he hold out until his yen is worth his original investment of $4,000? How long should he expect to wait? Will it ever be worth the same amount? Should he simply cut his losses?
In theory, X amount of one currency should be able to purchase the same amount of goods as Y amount of a different currency. In practice, this is hardly ever the case. The value of currencies to one another, called exchange rates, is in flux daily.
There are several complex factors that affect exchange rates to include inflation, interest rates, and trade deficits. Therefore, in order to grasp how exchange rates will change in the future, it’s important to try and understand these factors.
While many SEA STATE readers may find themselves with small amounts of foreign cash, foreign currencies are a popular choice for professional investors as well. In fact, the foreign currency market is the largest in the world with nearly six trillion dollars changing hands each day. This is because of the necessity of trading foreign currencies for the exchange of goods by global businesses, and because it is not regulated very strictly.
As with everything, be sure to fully understand a market before you decide whether or not to invest in it. Even if you don’t decide to invest in foreign currency, having a basic understanding of exchange rates is still valuable for world travelers.
In the aforementioned dilemma, what is our fellow sailor to do with his yen? If he chooses to convert his yen into dollars he faces a net loss of $800. This may be worth it since $3,200 is more valuable in the United States than unusable Japanese currency sitting in a drawer. Another option is to wait until a future day when he may be able to convert his yen at a more favorable exchange rate. This option could require patience since he doesn’t know when (or if) that day will come. A final option is to wait until the next time he is in Japan and spend it there or online at a website that accepts yen.
Unless you plan on investing in foreign currency, it is generally a good idea to minimize the amount of dollars you convert into foreign currencies, so you don’t find yourself in the same dilemma. Only carry the amount of foreign cash you need to cover whatever travels you may undertake. | | QUOTE OF THE WEEK “Strength of character does not consist solely in having powerful feelings, but in maintaining one’s balance in spite of them. Even with the violence of emotion, judgment and principle must still function like a ship’s compass, which records the slightest variations however rough the sea.”
— Carl Von Clausewitz |
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We’ll see you next week. | | | This issue of SEA STATE was written and edited by Madison Sargeant, Emma Quinn, Thomas Krasnican, Franklin Shew, Charlotte Asdal, Sarah Claudy, Caroline Finley, Viraj Patel, Julie Stabile, Polly Finch, Yash Khatavkar, Lauren Hickey, Christian Hoffman, Bryce McClelland, and Mary Bishop Wade. | SEA STATE is not affiliated with the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, or the Department of Defense. All views expressed or shared in this newsletter are the authors’ own and not necessarily endorsed by the U.S. government or any military entity. | | |
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