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A Periodic Newsletter
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Breakthroughs in Strategic Foresight 

 
            August 31, 2021               
 
 


Controlling Mis/DisInformation -- Final Results



 

Our previous newsletter solicited estimates and comments to wrap up this study. We are grateful to the following 23 experts who responded in this issue: Owen Davies, Ian Browde, Peter King, John Meagher, Carlos Scheel Mayenberger, Peter von Stackelberg,  Dennis Bushnell,  Tom Abeles, Margherita Abe,  Hannu Lehtinen, Art Murray,  Jose Cordeiro, Leopold Mureithi, Milind Chitale, John Freedman, Aharon Hauptman, Jacques Malan, Chris Garlick, David Passig, Xin-Wu Lin, Yair Sharan, Hellmuth Broda, Clayton Rawlings and Craig Boice.


Click here to see the full report on the TechCast site.   Here's a summary of results from the Executive Overview:


The graph below summarizes results for the 10 questions (Qs) posed for respondents. One of the most striking conclusions is that people think mis/disinformation has devastating impacts. Responses to Qs 1, 8, 9 and 10 rate the issue above 7 on a 10-point scale, well above any thought that this is a middling concern. Further, responses to Qs 8, 9, and 10 show that the magnitude of the problem is not expected to diminish with time.

 

Another major conclusion is the distrust of institutions to remedy this situation. Qs 2 and 3 show a marked distrust in big tech companies and the federal government to help. In contrast, Qs 4, 5, 6, and 7 suggest people are more confident that education, culture, leadership, and AI are likely to be more useful. Better education stands out as the most powerful force for change.


Finally, we can see bipolar distributions of the data showing the prevalent divide in attitudes toward government, culture, leadership AI and education.


In short, the mis/disinformation problem is deadly serious, it is here to stay, and companies and governments are not likely to help. But there seems to be hope in reforming education, social cultures, leadership and AI applications.




This analysis is supported by the many comments also included below, but opinion varies widely, as noted in the bipolar data. To fully appreciate the richness of this complex issue, please look over the comments and savor the wide diversity of viewpoints. You will be grateful for the thought poured into this crucial study.


An insightful conclusion runs through these comments. There is a compelling suggestion that mis/disinformation should be penalized through fines, dropping service, or some form of "penalty" to discourage misuse of the media.  An authoritative body, aiding by good AI, would have to judge when mis/disinformation has occurred, of course. But that's needed in any case. This strategy of "internalizing social costs" has been shown to be a powerful regulator of behavior with minimal intrusion."

 

We received a flurry of interest on this topic because mis/disinformation is such a serious issue today. These results provide a penetrating analysis of another pathbreaking TechCast study, and we now invite our readers to use it for their own purposes. Please also consider posting this work on your social media and publishing it in magazines or journals you can access.  If you want to help curb mis/disinformation, how about sending the above bar chart to all your friends and associates? As always, make sure you credit the TechCast Project as your source.

We always welcome problems, good ideas, and constructive suggestions on this study and the newsletter itself.

Thanks for your continuing support. The TechCast Team

 

 



Beyond Knowledge Featured on the Jim Masters Show



Prof. Halal was a guest on the Jim Masters Show, where he discussed his new book, Beyond  Knowledge.


A video of Bill's appearance can be found here.


 

Bill's New Book, Beyond Knowledge, Released 
 
 
Foresight Books and MyeBook are pleased to announce that Prof. Halal's provocative study of today's historic move from a Knowledge Age to an Age of Consciousness has been released for purchase at Amazon.  eBooks are ready for pre-order now, with paperback and hardback versions coming soon. You can also review a synopsis of the book's central theme at www.BeyondKnowledge.org


 

Beyond Knowledge Lies the Triumph of Human Spirit  


The Knowledge Age is receding under today’s flood of smartphones, social media, disinformation and artificial intelligence. Knowledge is still crucial, but the digital revolution is moving the world beyond knowledge into a new frontier governed by emotions, values, beliefs and higher-order thought. Prof. Halal's study of social evolution explains that an Age of Consciousness is here, but more pandemics, climate change, gridlock and other threats pose an existential crisis of maturity blocking the way ahead. This book provides a wealth of evidence and examples of an emerging “global consciousness” now urging us to grow up, resolve these threats and develop a sustainable civilization – or face disaster. With foresight and hard work, we could see the triumph of human spirit, once again.
 
William E. Halal, PhD   
 
Halal is Professor Emeritus at George Washington University, Washington, DC, with degrees from Purdue and UC Berkeley.  Prof. Halal has published 7 books and hundreds of articles, consults to corporations and governments, and is a frequent speaker, once substituting for Peter Drucker. Bill also served as a major in the US Air Force, an aerospace engineer on the Apollo Program and a business manager in Silicon Valley. He received the 1977 Mitchell Prize ($10,000) for his article “Beyond the Profit-Motive,” and another article, “Through the MegaCrisis,” was awarded Outstanding Paper of 2013. Halal was cited by the Encyclopedia of the Future as one of the top 100 futurists in the world. 



Bill welcomes your thoughts, questions and suggestions at Halal@GWU.edu

 

 
Hot Strategic Issues and Breakthroughs 

(click images for more)



Exxon, Shell and Other Big Oil Companies Forced to Address Climate

Exxon was forced to accept two climate activists who were voted onto its board of directors. Meanwhile, A Dutch court forced Royal Dutch Shell to make deeper, faster cuts to its climate-warming emissions, setting a legal precedent that may plague other oil companies. Coming on the heels of the Business Roundtable announcement that overturned shareholder supremacy, is this the end of "business as usual"?






 
 
Space Tourism Is Here

Virgin Galactic took two people to the very edge of suborbital space for the first time in more than two years, and its third time overall.  This flight was the first of four planned crewed missions slated for this year, and they will all be crucial to the company proving it can fly quickly, consistently, and safely. Virgin Galactic plans to launch 400 space tourism flights from the site, called Spaceport America. And later Jeff Bezos himself was on board the maiden flight of his space vehicle, Blue Origin.  




 

 

Germany Gives Greenlight to Driverless Vehicles 

 

Germany has adopted legislation that will allow driverless vehicles on public roads by 2022, laying out a path for companies to deploy robo taxis and delivery services in the country at scale. While autonomous testing is currently permitted in Germany, this would allow operations of driverless vehicles without a human safety operator behind the wheel.  With driverless cars roaming the streets of Germany, how much longer can it take to do the same everywhere?
 

 

 
Letters

 

TechCast always encourages letters, comments, and suggestions. 


 

Beyond Knowledge Featured on the Jim Masters Show



Prof. Halal was a guest on the Jim Masters Show, where he discussed his new book, Beyond  Knowledge.

A video of Bill's appearance can be found here.




 


PodCast on Beyond Knowledge




Prof. Halal was interviewed by Peter Hayward for a podcast published on Future Pod.

The interview can be heard here.



 

 
Keynote on Autonomous Vehicles Conference

 

 

 

TechCast gave a keynote speech at an international conference on transportation featuring autonomous cars on November  2, 2020. The conference was organized by the Intelligent Transport Society of South Korea.

TechCast's Bill Halal organized his talk around the five principles of Global Consciousness. 
 

 





 


 

TechCast Briefs Angel Investors

 


TechCast founder, William Halal, kicked off the annual meeting of the Angel Capital Association’s Virtual Summit on May 12 with his keynote on The Technology Revolution.  Among his many points, Bill outlined how AI is causing today’s move beyond knowledge to an Age of Consciousness, and that business is now altering corporate consciousness to include the interests of all stakeholders. Angel investors are concerned about the social impacts of their companies, so this news was well-received, especially as Bill stressed this historic change could be a competitive advantage.
 

 

 
 Armed Forces Communication and Electronics Association

 
Prof. Halal spoke on the topic of AI, noting TechCast’s forecast that AI is expected to automate 30% of routine knowledge work about 2025 +3/-1 years and General AI is likely to arrive about 2040. Expanding on the same theme delivered at ACA, Bill explained how today’s shifting consciousness is likely to transform, not only business but also the government, the military, and all other institutions. 

 


 

 

We Invite Your Ideas

 
TechCast offers exciting new possibilities to use our unequaled talent and resources for creative projects. I invite you to send me your questions, fresh ideas, articles to publish, consulting work, research studies, or anything interesting on the tech revolution.

Email me at Halal@GWU.edu and I'll get back to you soon. Have your friends and colleagues sign up for this newsletter at www.BillHalal.com.

Thanks, Bill

William E. Halal, PhD  
The TechCast Project 
George Washington University
 






 


TechCast Research is Published By:
 
The TechCast Project www.TechCastProject.com
Prof. William E. Halal, Founder
George Washington University

Prof. Halal can be reached at Halal@GWU.edu

The TechCast Project is an academic think tank that pools empirical background information and the knowledge of high-tech CEOs, scientists and engineers, academics, consultants, futurists and other experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields. Over 20 years of leading the field, we have been cited by the US National Academies, won awards, been featured in the Washington Post and other media, and consulted by corporations and governments around the world. TechCast and its wide range of experts are available for consulting, speaking and training in all aspects of strategic foresight.

Sign up for this newsletter at www.TechCastProject.com.
 

Copyright © 2020 The TechCast Project. All rights reserved.
 
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