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Exploring the Cognitive Roots of Conflict

Following up on our recent announcement, TechCast is pleased to present a rough framework for studying the Cognitive Roots of Conflict.

As planned, the table below maps various thoughts regarding climate change - the biggest crisis of our time. Entries are noted for both those who propose action and those who resist it, highlighting the differences that have blocked action for decades.

Cognitive Maps have become the very heart of AI. To understand and automate some human activity, we first have to define its components, how they interact, and the goals. We have to map the cognitive terrain.

As proposed earlier, these data, beliefs, and other thoughts are organized along the cognitive scale of 9 functions identified in our AI vs Humans study. Not perfect, but a sound framework out of our TechCast Expert work.

If this study proves useful, we could expand it to include other intractable conflicts -- abortion, gun control, inequality, immigration, etc.

Cognitive Map of Climate Change

The following analysis suggests provocative strategies that could resolve this conflict:

Analysis of the Cognitive Map

9. Vision Thoughtful, plausible, and inspiring visions of sustainable futures may help resolve the climate problem. If done well, especially with the participation of those opposed, some hearts and minds are likely to soften to grasp that a better world is possible.

8. Imagination, Creativity We certainly could benefit from a healthy dose of creative thought to bolster a sustainable vision.

7. Values and Beliefs This function may be the nub of the problem. How to recast the diehard beliefs of climate deniers? Some will never yield, of course, but an honest engagement with those holding opposing belief systems could possibly shift opinion toward reality, especially if supported by compelling visions and the hard facts further down in this table.

6. Purpose, Will, Choice Noting the actions being taken by governments, corporations and communities should have desirable impacts on overcoming resistance.

5. Emotion, Empathy If those doubtful about the need for change could witness some of the enormous tragedies possibly ahead, a change of heart and mind would make a difference.

4. Decision, Logic This cognitive function demands a great deal. How can we engage people in realistic problem-solving experiences that weigh the evidence to reach sound conclusions for change?

3. Information, Knowledge, Understanding See above. These are major basic elements needed to reach sound choices.

2. Learning, Memory Better processes and information sources are needed to break through misunderstandings to gain accurate knowledge.

1. Perception, Awareness Ahhh! The very source of experiential life. What could creative simulations of the disasters lying ahead possibly do to shift awareness? Visits to locales actually experiencing climate shift? Meeting those who have taken action?

Three Alternative Scenarios

A useful outcome of this study is to examine scenarios of various strategies and their outcomes at about 2030. While endless scenarios are possible, TechCast proposes the following 3 scenarios that seem to capture the most dominant variations:

Ideal Resolution

The analysis above across all 9 cognitive functions leads to the following "ideal" scenario in which key actors work together quickly to fend off more extreme weather.

Proponents of resolving the climate crisis invited opposition leaders to actually experience climate disasters. They visited locales with unusually heavy floods, heatwaves, wildfires, and violent winds, and they spoke with victims and change advocates. Local governments and corporations showed remedial actions are possible that would have desirable impacts and overcome resistance.

They also examined a variety of information sources to break through misunderstandings and gain accurate knowledge of the problem. Engaged people in realistic problem-solving experiences that weighed the evidence to reach their own conclusions. By witnessing these climate tragedies and better understanding the even bigger dangers ahead, many had a change of heart.

Some opponents would not yield, of course, but engagement with those holding opposing beliefs moved people toward a realistic understanding of the issues. After engaging different parties in participative discussions and problem-solving, along with a dose of creative thought, a compelling vision emerged that most agreed would lead to a healthy and sustainable world.

Meet the Challenge

The mid-2020s proved critical as scorching heat, drought, wildfires, floods and violent storms devastated the Earth, leaving parts of the southern US, Middle East, Africa and Asia uninhabitable. The resulting economic disruption caused the global depression that had long been feared as national debt reached stratospheric levels.

Climate-change refugees from Arabic nations, and some Europeans, stormed the Nordic nations and Russia looking for relief from the heat, while Mexicans and people from the southern US states fled to Canada. At the Eastern seaboard of the US, the costs for building sea walls reached trillions of dollars. Still, New York City struggled to subdue chronic flooding, much like Venice. Public riots soon forced politicians to take serious steps to curtail CO₂ emissions.

Forecasts for the coming years were even more severe, creating a global shift of opinion to resolve the climate crisis. The political and social pressure was intense, but fresh ideas and new leadership emerged to rally a movement to “Create a Sustainable World.” Values and beliefs flipped as former climate deniers found faith in Nature, and environmentalists accepted the need for economic reality.

Green technologies and environmental research were shared around the globe. A universal green tax was adopted, with revenues to be returned to taxpayers. And with millions of high-tech jobs opening in environmental work to replace positions lost to automation, the global economy entered a period of clean growth. It is estimated that “peak CO₂” or “peak warming” was likely to be reached about 2034, starting the long process of cooling the Earth. Finally.

Avoid the Challenge

The same environmental threats as above took place, but the comfortable path of muddling through prevailed. The onset of more scorching heat, drought, wildfires, floods and violent storms was devastating, but opinion remained divided, so there was insufficient political will for serious change.

Regions adapted in various ways. Families left southern regions as they became uninhabitable, so Canada, Nordic nations, and Russia boomed in population. To fend off excessive immigrants, some countries built borders walls to limit passage across boundaries. The economic damage was severe, with lost jobs, rising poverty and lesser social services. The professional and wealthy classes maintained the bulk of national income.

Investments were poured into tech solutions, such as green energy, carbon capture and geoengineering, although it was too little too late. Environmental decline continued, fed by big increases in air conditioning and other attempts to stave off the heat, creating a positive feedback loop that increased the load of CO₂. All this merely accelerated the climate problem.

Please note that the above are simply TechCast's preliminary thoughts on these profound questions. That's where you come in, dear readers. Using our customary method of collective intelligence, we now invite you to weigh in with comments to help clarify this topic. Kindly add, modify or challenge entries in this cognitive map. Suggest solutions that may resolve the conflict, and improvements in these 3 scenarios. And tell us whatever else may be useful. Contributors will be cited in our next newsletter for framing the topic better.

Send comments to Bill at Halal@GWU.edu. And please keep comments short -- no more than 100 words. To encourage people to read web content, we have learned that less is more,

For a final note, it is important to recognize that the dominant issues blocking action on climate involve subjective forms of thought (5-9) rather than objective thought (1-4). Objective thought (knowledge, logic, etc) is crucial certainly. But the main reason nations are unable to resolve the issues of our time is that action is blocked by subjective consciousness (emotion, purpose, values, beliefs, vision, etc). This conclusion illustrates the central thesis of Bill's new book, Beyond Knowledge, which follows.

Many thanks, the TechCast Team

Highlights from Beyond Knowledge

Foresight Books and MyeBook are pleased to announce that Prof. Halal's provocative study of today's historic move from a Knowledge Age to an Age of Consciousness has been released for publication on Amazon. You can also review a synopsis of the book's central theme at www.BeyondKnowledge.org

This newsletter will feature selected parts of the book over the coming weeks. The second of three forewords is presented by Michael Lee. One other will follow, and then excerpts from all ten chapters. Stay tuned to this TechCast Research Newsletter to get a solid introduction to Bill's latest book.

Foreword by Michael Lee

The best handbook for understanding the future since Alvin Toffler’s Future Shock

At long last, a coherent visionary has appeared who can interpret the signs of the times and point to an alternative pathway to take humanity out of a dysfunctional global future. Professor William Halal’s latest work on emerging techno-social trends gives us the big picture of what kind of world we now live in and how humanity can save itself from a blind descent into irreversible disorder.

As a futurist who believes that the science of cause-and-effect applies to social life just as surely as it does to the natural world, I’ve often despaired at the lack of true foresight being produced in

the field of futures studies, in the social sciences and in social commentaries nowadays. In general, the study of the future hasn’t matured beyond scenario planning and the “dark art” of conjecture to gain the status of a science. At a time of accelerating technological advancement, this vacuum of forethought only intensifies the prevailing mood of profound uncertainty and confusion. Bill Halal and his TechCast team are a notable exception, providing a collective model of foresight that is a world-leader in the field of future studies. TechCast’s body of work, after decades of observing and interpreting major shifts in technology and thinking, has become an increasingly valuable resource for a true understanding of evolving society. They have reached a very high level of global insight about changes impacting on human behavior which may prove to be indispensable to our long-term survival.

This uplifting book is Bill’s distillation of an unparalleled repository of collective wisdom. He decodes all the impacts of technology on social behavior on the global stage, for the benefit of laymen and experts alike. It’s reassuring to look at the shocks and changes we are encountering as birth-pains of what he describes as a new Age of Consciousness, a transitional time in history. Drawing on results of TechCast work, based on insights from 150 experts across academia and industry, Bill weaves his story of how the globalized world has fallen into a MegaCrisis. How did we get into this trap? More importantly, how can we get out of it? Beyond Knowledge: Technology is Driving an Age of Consciousness contains many unexpected and provocative answers and food for thought for policymakers, CEOs, industry leaders, entrepreneurs, environmentalists, technologists, investors, academics and strategic thinkers. For example, the book outlines how we can transform government, business and other institutions to steer society towards solutions based on practicing and applying a higher form of consciousness.

The reader will find himself, or herself, trusting Bill’s voice as he diagnoses the core problems facing the global world and then shows us the way to a more promising future in the Age of Consciousness. Naturally, a time of deep-seated transition, as the Age of Knowledge comes to an end, calls out for a wise guiding hand. I’ve no hesitation in saying I’ll carry his new book into battle with me. I’m talking about the coming battle to get out of the mess we’re all in, with its youth unemployment, its threat of further job losses to the forces of artificial intelligence, its obscene levels of social inequality, its scourge of violence and its planetary vulnerability to climate change.

Given these ingrained problems and the general scarcity of foresight mentioned earlier, I can say “Thank goodness” for Bill Halal, for TechCast and for this new book - the best handbook for understanding the future I’ve read since Toffler’s Future Shock. Beyond Knowledge describes how the technology revolution could become a force for good by giving society higher-order capabilities and by forcing humans to become more aware, more creative, more spiritual and more holistic in their thinking. This would enable us to win back some competitive advantage over robots in what could be called the Intelligence Race.

As presciently argued in Beyond Knowledge, a change of behavior, thinking and direction, a deep shift in ethos, is required to steer our planet and global order to a safer, happier and more sustainable place. All other options seem sterile and bankrupt to me. For these reasons, it’s an honor to commend this turbo-intelligent book to all those who wish to thrive in our complex, challenging world.

Michael Lee has been CEO of the ATM Industry Association (ATMIA), a global not-for-profit trade organization with over 11,000 members in about 70 countries, since 2004. As a qualified futurist, with a Master of Philosophy in Futures Studies (cum laude) from the Institute of Futures Research at the University of Stellenbosch’s Graduate School of Business, he is the author of Codebreaking our Future: Deciphering the Future’s Hidden Order. In 2018, the book, available on Amazon, was translated into Chinese by Beijing Fonghong Books Co., Ltd, the first stock company in China formed by the merger of a private publisher and a state-run publisher.

He was one of the few commentators to forecast victory for Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential elections on the back of a wave of populism ("Preparing for a Pax Trumpicana". August 3, 2016.
http://www.infideas.com/preparing-pax-trumpicana/). He also predicted a comfortable win for Joe Biden in the 2020 elections (http://michaeljlee.com/why-a-millennial-dominated-america-could-shred-donald-trump/).

Lee teamed up with a neurosurgeon to co-author the sci-fi novel about head transplants and transformations of consciousness called Chrysalis. He also wrote Earthrise 2036, a sweeping novel about technological and mental leaps of power projecting humanity into the future, as long as the Dark Force it describes is defeated.

For more on Michael, see www.positivedestiny.org

Bill welcomes your thoughts, questions and suggestions about his latest book at Halal@GWU.edu

200 Leaders Call for New UN Office to Coordinate Global Research to Prevent Human Extinction

Earth's magnetic shield weakening, ocean-poisoning hydrogen-sulfide gas from advanced global warning, out-of-control nanotech and AI, are among the possible future threats to humanity, warn The Millennium Project, World Futures Studies Federation, and the Association of Professional Futurists.

WASHINGTON, September 8, 2021 (Newswire.com) In an open letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, internet pioneer Vint Cerf, Nobel Prize Laureate Oscar Arias, and other technological, business, political, technological, environmental, and academic leaders around the world are calling for a new UN Office of Strategic Threats to coordinate global research on long-range strategic or existential threats to humanity, and to their prevention.

The letter requests that the UN Secretariat conduct a feasibility study for the proposed UN Office. "The immediate crises always seem to overrule the long-term concerns about the future of humanity. So, we need a specific UN Office that just focuses on what could make us go extinct and how to prevent it," said Jerome Glenn, CEO of The Millennium Project." The UN already has agencies that are addressing many of the serious trends today—such as decreasing freshwater per capita, concentration of wealth, and ethnic violence—but these do not pose a threat to the survival of our species.

Long-term threats

However, there are long-term threats that do, such as the ten below:

Weakening of the Earth's magnetic shield that protects us from deadly solar radiation
Massive discharges of hydrogen sulfate (H S) from de-oxygenated oceans, caused by advanced global warming
Malicious nanotechnology (including the "gray goo" problem)
Loss of control over future forms of artificial intelligence
A single individual acting alone, who could one day create and deploy a weapon of mass destruction (most likely from synthetic biology)
Nuclear war escalation
Uncontrollable, more severe pandemics
A particle accelerator accident
Solar gamma-ray bursts
An asteroid collision.

"There is no single point for collaboration in the UN system that addresses such long-term threats to human survival," said Ambassador Héctor Casanueva, former Chilean Ambassador to UN multilateral organizations in Geneva." A UN Office on Strategic and Existential Threats to humanity could identify, monitor, anticipate, and coordinate strategic research on a global scale to prevent these threats, he suggested. "It would serve international agencies, multilateral organizations, nation-states, and humanity in general."

The idea of a new UN Office was raised during the celebration of the annual "World Future Day" on March 1, 2021, a global online conference of nearly a thousand experts from 65 countries. The Millennium Project, which hosts World Future Day, suggested that a resolution be offered at the next UN General Assembly, to be held in September 2021. It would give the UN Secretariat the mandate to conduct a feasibility study of the proposed UN Office of Strategic Threats.

Source: The Millennium Project

Hot Strategic Issues and Breakthroughs

(click images for more)

And There Were Three -- Lon Musk Confirms Space Tourism Is Here

Virgin Galactic took two people to the very edge of suborbital space for the first time in more than two years, and its third time overall. This flight was the first of four planned crewed missions slated for this year, and they will all be crucial to the company proving it can fly quickly, consistently, and safely. Virgin Galactic plans to launch 400 space tourism flights from the site, called Spaceport America.

Later, Jeff Bezos himself was on board the maiden flight of his space vehicle, Blue Origin.

Not to be outdone, Elon Musk joined in recently with an orbital flight that carried ordinary people around the Earth for 3 days.

Exxon, Shell and Other Big Oil Companies Forced to Address Climate

Exxon was forced to accept two climate activists who were voted onto its board of directors. Meanwhile, A Dutch court forced Royal Dutch Shell to make deeper, faster cuts to its climate-warming emissions, setting a legal precedent that may plague other oil companies. Coming on the heels of the Business Roundtable announcement that overturned shareholder supremacy, is this the end of "business as usual"?

Germany Gives Greenlight to Driverless Vehicles

Germany has adopted legislation that will allow driverless vehicles on public roads by 2022, laying out a path for companies to deploy robo taxis and delivery services in the country at scale. While autonomous testing is currently permitted in Germany, this would allow operations of driverless vehicles without a human safety operator behind the wheel. With driverless cars roaming the streets of Germany, how much longer can it take to do the same everywhere?

Letters

TechCast always encourages letters, comments, and suggestions.

Beyond Knowledge on "Al in the Afternoon" Show

Prof. Halal has a regular guest on Al Travis's show. Here are videos of his appearances:

8-25-21 https://fb.watch/8aQdm4xArq/

9-1-21 https://fb.watch/8aQrRgtpw1/

9-8-21 https://fb.watch/8aQxezHglK/

9-15-21 https://fb.watch/8aQC_UqGO-/

Beyond Knowledge on the Jim Masters Show

Prof. Halal was a guest on the Jim Masters Show, where he discussed his new book, Beyond Knowledge.

A video of Bill's appearance can be found here.

PodCast on Beyond Knowledge

Prof. Halal was interviewed by Peter Hayward for a podcast published on Future Pod.

The interview can be heard here.

Keynote on Autonomous Vehicles Conference

TechCast gave a keynote speech at an international conference on transportation featuring autonomous cars on November 2, 2020. The conference was organized by the Intelligent Transport Society of South Korea.

TechCast's Bill Halal organized his talk around the five principles of Global Consciousness.

TechCast Briefs Angel Investors

TechCast founder, William Halal, kicked off the annual meeting of the Angel Capital Association’s Virtual Summit on May 12 with his keynote on The Technology Revolution. Among his many points, Bill outlined how AI is causing today’s move beyond knowledge to an Age of Consciousness, and that business is now altering corporate consciousness to include the interests of all stakeholders. Angel investors are concerned about the social impacts of their companies, so this news was well-received, especially as Bill stressed this historic change could be a competitive advantage.

Click here for the presentation

Armed Forces Communication and Electronics Association

Prof. Halal spoke on the topic of AI, noting TechCast’s forecast that AI is expected to automate 30% of routine knowledge work about 2025 +3/-1 years and General AI is likely to arrive about 2040. Expanding on the same theme delivered at ACA, Bill explained how today’s shifting consciousness is likely to transform, not only business but also the government, the military, and all other institutions.