The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented disruption in the regional labor market, exposing vulnerabilities and exacerbating inequities within our workforce.

But it's also opened the door to new career opportunities for many Tampa Bay residents.

A recent research report conducted by the Tampa Bay Partnership, with funding support from JPMorgan Chase & Co., shows a high degree of potential for COVID-impacted workers to put their skills to work in higher opportunity careers. By applying their existing skills in new occupational settings and acquiring additional specialized skills, workers can gain access to higher-paying jobs with greater opportunities for mobility. At the same time, employers can access a larger, more diverse talent pool by removing degree and experience requirements and, instead, hiring for skills and potential.

A Disparate Recovery

At its peak, unemployment in Tampa Bay soared to 13.9 percent, and more than 112,000 people dropped out of the labor force. Once economic activity resumed after restrictions were eased, a “K-shaped” recovery began. (A phenomenon that occurs when, after a recession, parts of the economy resume growth, while others lag behind.)
 
Some industries were still struggling more than a year into the pandemic, while others were hardly impacted by the economic shutdown. Likewise, some individuals and populations suffered immeasurably, while others, from the safety of their homes, saw their wealth and income grow.

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
*For the purpose of this report, the Tampa Bay region includes Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and Hernando counties.
**Thriving includes professional and business services; transportation, warehousing, and utilities; and financial activities. Surviving includes government; education and health services; and leisure and hospitality.

The uneven recovery and pandemic-induced changes altered the regional employment base, in some cases permanently. The occupational mix, skills required, and geographic location of jobs in the region shifted. At the same time, workers’ ability and desire to work were impacted by complex factors, such as health risk, childcare availability, and changes in workplace preferences.
 
By spring 2021, hiring activity in the region had surpassed pre-COVID levels to the point where there were two job postings for every one unemployed person. Employers reported difficulty filling a wide range of positions, but particularly entry-level positions.

Source: Emsi Job Posting Analytics.

A Skills-Based Hiring Approach
 
With these changes and challenges in mind, the Tampa Bay Partnership launched UpSkill Tampa Bay, in collaboration with Tampa Bay Works and the Orlando Economic Partnership. The initiative, funded by JPMorgan Chase & Co., helps displaced workers access high-opportunity career pathways and assists employers in identifying and targeting new and more diverse talent pools for their hard-to-fill, critical occupations through a skills-based approach.
 
Using available labor market data, occupations were identified as “impacted” or “opportunity.” Impacted occupations were affected by the pandemic and were already in decline due to long-term trends, such as automation and artificial intelligence. Opportunity occupations were those that were stable during the pandemic and experienced strong growth prior to COVID.

Next, the skills of the impacted and opportunity occupations were compared. To measure the similarities between impacted and opportunity occupations, more than 1,400 pairs of occupations were evaluated. The similarity of the skills portfolios was measured using an algorithm that calculated a score between zero and one. The higher the similarity score, the greater the alignment of skills and the more likely a worker could transition from an impacted to an opportunity occupation.

Source: Burning Glass via Orlando Economic Partnership

Of these pairs, 190 pairs met thresholds for wage gains and similarity score. These are considered “viable transitions.” The majority of the viable transitions require a change in occupational family and about half of these require additional education, such as a postsecondary certificate or, in a few cases, an associate’s degree. All of them showed the potential for significant wage gains, particularly those that require a change in occupational family.

This research provides evidence that workers who can utilize their existing base of skills and apply it to a new occupation in a different occupation family, have the potential to realize considerable wage gains. Though many of the transitions do not require an additional education credential, all would likely require on-the-job training or additional training to acquire skills specific to the opportunity occupation.
 
To actualize these transitions, however, job seekers will need to understand their own skillsets and how they are transferable to these new roles, and employers will need to recognize which skills are critical and how they can be acquired in other occupational settings.