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Welcome to another issue of SEA STATE, where this week we’re joined by Colin Barnard to discuss his experience as a Foreign Area Officer.

On the 20th anniversary of 9/11, I visited New York City with 14 cadets from the German Navy. We stood out among the crowd in our “summer whites” and were bombarded by passersby asking for photos or just wanting to talk. Most thought we were a group of U.S. Navy midshipmen. After the friendly crowd learned that the majority of us were German (I was the only American in the group), I took the opportunity to note that NATO, of which Germany is a member, voted unanimously to invoke Article V for the first time in its history within 24 hours of the attacks on 9/11. Just a few days after the attacks, in a further display of solidarity, the crew of the German destroyer Lutjens presented a banner while passing the U.S. destroyer Winston Churchill that read “We Stand by You.”

The alliances and partnerships that have formed or strengthened in response to 9/11 and the numerous other transnational security challenges of the 21st century are just as important now as they were 20 years ago, if not more so. As the saying (or perhaps cliché) goes, the most important ships in the Navy are partnerships, and they would not be possible without the dedicated professionals from all branches of the military, the State Department, and other government agencies who work across language and cultural barriers to nurture them. As a U.S. Navy Foreign Area Officer (FAO) in Europe, I am proud to be a part of what our Chief of Naval Operations called “…the indispensable human element of the Navy’s global posture.”

As a FAO, I recently reported to the German Naval Academy in Flensburg. I previously worked with senior German Navy officers at NATO Maritime Command in London, so it is a privilege to help shape the next generation of officers—especially as the German Navy undergoes a similar churn as our own. Land wars have been the focus of the last 75 years, but now shifting our focus to strategic competition with China and Russia requires a refocus on the maritime domain and the navies that secure it. Of course, like our own Navy, the German Navy has been operating forward all along, serving on staffs and aboard ships and aircraft in support of NATO, EU, and UN operations. Whether in crisis or conflict, behind the scenes or center stage, navies are underway every day.

Following Germany’s federal elections on Sunday, I am not alone in pondering the future of German foreign and defense policy: will it be slanted more towards supporting a broad coalition against China in the Indo-Pacific, NATO against Russia in the Euro-Atlantic, or some mix of both? Regardless of these future political decisions, as of writing, the German Navy is sailing its frigate Bayern to the Indo-Pacific and contributes to operations across the Euro-Atlantic (take a look at this excellent German Navy Fleet Tracker); Germany and Norway have announced cooperation on the Type 212CD submarine and Naval Strike Missile Block 1A; and, most recently, Boeing has publicized the sale of five P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to the German Navy.

With all of this in mind, and with the reassurances given to me every day by the German Navy officers and cadets with whom I walk the historic halls of Marineschule Mürwik (and who help correct my German grammar mistakes), I am confident in the future of Germany, its military, and in particular its Navy. They will continue to stand by us, and us them.

Sincerely,

Colin Barnard
@colin_barnard
SEA STATE Guest Writer

NEWS THIS WEEK

“Defense Chief Says He Advised Against Staying in Afghanistan ‘Forever’” (NYT): Secretary of Defense Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Milley, and CENTCOM Commander General McKenzie spent multiple days this week testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee and House Armed Services Committee. The hearings focused largely on the American withdrawal from Afghanistan last month. Multiple threads were highlighted by our top leader’s testimony.

• General Milley emphasized the importance of civilian control of the military on multiple occasions. When questioned about his conversations with Chinese officials in the last days of the Trump administration, General Milley said “I firmly believe in civilian control of the military as a bedrock principle essential to this republic and I am committed to ensuring the military stays clear of domestic politics.” When asked why he did not resign when President Biden did not follow his advice on the withdrawal timeline in Afghanistan, General Milley explained “this country doesn’t want generals figuring out what orders we’re going to accept and do or not. That’s not our job.”

• All three leaders discussed the need for some pointed reflection after the withdrawal. When asked what caused the failure of US strategy in Afghanistan, General Milley replied “this is a 20-year war. It wasn’t lost in the last 20 days or even 20 months for that matter. There is a cumulative effect from a series of decisions that go way back.”

• Looking toward the future, General McKenzie said that he did not yet have confidence that the US could effectively prevent Afghanistan from becoming a haven for terrorist organizations and General Milley predicted that ISIS and Al Qaeda could regroup in less than three years. Secretary Austin emphasized the importance of maintaining pressure on terrorist groups, but acknowledged that “it will take time to develop a true intelligence picture.” In total, the hearings highlighted that Afghanistan will remain a key touchpoint for military leaders, both as we try to learn the lessons of twenty years of war and as we face an Afghanistan back under Taliban control.

“US inks $20 million deal to launch high-tech weather satellites in space” (CNN): The Air Force announced Thursday a roughly $20 million contract with Tomorrow.io to develop and deploy a constellation of satellites equipped with radars to measure precipitation from space. Only one satellite with this capability is currently in orbit, the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory satellite. As the climate continues to change, the data provided by these satellites will be critical in forecasting extreme weather events and will have an immediate impact on natural disaster preparation when launched in late 2022. The Northeast was warned of heavy rainfall and potentially significant flooding when Hurricane Ida swept through the region, but was caught off guard by the weather and rainfall that actually hit the region because data was limited. The deployment of Tomorrow.io’s satellites will help counteract this trend. The satellite constellation is a good example of space-based national security tools outside of the military paradigm we are used to.

“Lithuania vs. China: A Baltic Minnow Defies a Rising Superpower” (NYT): Although only a fraction of China’s size and economic might, Lithuania has been making itself a thorn in China’s side by taking public measures to reject Chinese influence. Most recently, upon discovering that a popular Chinese-made cell phone model included a list of terms banned by the Chinese Communist Party, the Lithuanian government immediately advised its officials to cease using them. In response, Beijing has recalled its ambassador and effectively halted Lithuanian exports into China, among other retaliatory measures. As Lithuania continues its campaign with backing from the U.S., other countries in Europe may take note and adopt a similar playbook. While the phrase ‘strategic competition’ may seem vague or nebulous, this is one of the many ways in which it is playing out in the sphere of public diplomacy.

IN DEFENSE NEWS

“Navy Creates New Atlantic Destroyer Task Group to Hunt Russian Submarines” (USNI): The Navy has established Task Group Greyhound to counter the Russian submarine threat in the Atlantic. The task group, based out of Mayport, FL and Norfolk, VA, will utilize destroyers that have recently completed deployments and are awaiting their maintenance phase. Navy leadership expects the task group to be operational by June 2022. Rear Admiral Brendan McLane, the commander of Naval Surface Force Atlantic, noted that each ship will still get a post-deployment stand down to allow sailors to reconnect with their families. The formation of this task group along with the formation of the U.S. 2nd Fleet in 2018 highlights growing concern over Russia’s undersea capability. In addition to its current submarines, Moscow is developing a new class of undersea vessels with a school-bus-sized torpedo that holds a nuclear warhead. Task Group Greyhound will also streamline ASW training among multiple warfare communities, so Junior Officers can anticipate increased tactical exercise coordination in the surface, air and subsurface communities.

“China, US in talks on military relations amid strained ties” (Navy Times): The US and China held two days of discussions this past week, addressing their strained relationship and both countries’ recent activities in the South China Sea. The Biden Administration emphasized that these talks are part of their “ongoing effort to responsibly manage the competition between the US and the PRC by maintaining open lines of communication.” The conversations come at the point when relations between the two countries are arguably the worst they have been in decades – most recently strained due to a deal the US made with the UK and Australia to supply Australia with nuclear powered submarines. A spokesperson for the Chinese government urged “the three countries to abandon their Cold War mentality and zero-sum game thinking, [and to] revoke the mistaken decision to develop nuclear submarine cooperation.”

DISCUSSION QUESTION: How do JOs better support their Sailors who are approaching the end of their Navy careers?

Send your response to seastate.news@gmail.com!

A LONG READ FOR YOUR WEEKEND

“The Lost Troop” (The New Yorker) by Will Mackin

As we reflect on the war in Afghanistan, in the midst of endless op-eds, timelines, journalistic essays, and strategic analyses, let us not forget the stories that our veterans of the conflict have to tell. In a short story first published in 2017, “The Lost Troop,” Will Mackin writes about a SEAL team honoring their lost team-member, and then venturing to find their Afghan interpreter’s childhood teacher. Mackin is a 23-year Navy veteran who served as a joint-terminal attack controller attached to a SEAL team and he incorporates details into his fiction that bring his characters to life. Throughout the piece, Mackin retains a Vonnegut-like edge – somehow simultaneously lighthearted and weighty – that draws attention to, and yet never addresses, the lack of “why.” Read (or listen, as Mackin reads) at the link above.

BOOK REVIEW

The Man Who Ran Washington: The Life and Times of James A. Baker III by Peter Baker and Susan Glasser (2020)

Given that his public service ended around the time that most current junior officers were born, it is likely that many SEA STATE readers will not be familiar with the life of former Secretary of State Jim Baker. The Man Who Ran Washington is a valuable education on the subject. In this biography of one of the twentieth-century’s most influential figures, journalists Peter Baker and Susan Glasser (no relation to their subject) offer not only a case study in political leadership and diplomacy but also a fascinating history of our nation’s politics and evolving role in the world from the Nixon era through the first Bush presidency.

A Houston-raised business attorney who did not enter politics until the age of forty, Jim Baker first went to Washington, D.C. in 1975 as a result of his close friendship with George H.W. Bush. He then played a key negotiating role in the failed 1976 reelection campaign of Gerald Ford, unsuccessfully ran for attorney general of Texas, and then ran Bush’s 1980 presidential campaign, which was lost to Ronald Reagan. After these initial setbacks, Baker’s whirlwind career at the pinnacle of public life began when President Reagan offered him the job of White House Chief of Staff. After four years at that post, Baker served as Secretary of the Treasury, then helped his friend Bush win the 1988 election -- finally serving as Secretary of State for most of the one-term Bush presidency.

Baker’s keen deal-making skills and instincts helped him enact many of Reagan’s most significant domestic achievements, forging agreements across party lines about monetary and economic policy. Driven mostly by a desire to accomplish things rather than by intense ideological commitment, Baker was gifted at making all negotiating parties feel like they were getting something they wanted, and he meticulously prepared for engagements with fellow leaders. Baker took those skills to the State Department, brokering tough agreements between diverse nations regarding the end of the Cold War, the Persian Gulf War, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and becoming a highly regarded representative of the United States in capitals around the world.

While this book’s direct applicability to junior officership is minimal (though Baker did serve for several years as a USMC officer after graduating from Princeton), young military leaders can learn much from this account about how political power is created, maintained, and used. Moreover, Jim Baker’s career sheds light on a time when deal-making and collaboration were more attractive to our nation’s leaders than tribalism, and in which America was able to exercise its vast global influence in an effective and mostly positive way. Anyone in a position of influence can benefit from reflecting on this recent history.

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We’ll see you next week.

This issue of SEA STATE was written and edited by Madison Sargeant, Jake Marx, Lauren Hickey, Julie Stabile, Jeremy Gerstein, Emma Quinn, Matt Hession, Nick Paraiso, Franklin Shew, Scotty Davids, Viraj Patel, Sarah Claudy, and Thomas Krasnican. Special thanks to our guest writer, Colin Barnard.

SEA STATE is not affiliated with the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, or the Department of Defense. All views expressed or shared in this newsletter are the authors’ own and not necessarily endorsed by the U.S. government or any military entity.