China-India: Land Boundary Law, Major Power Rivalry in SA; Taiwan: Statements - Biden, Blinken & Waters, Tsai's Interview; 钧声; Weapons Development

I. The Big Story: China-India Brief

The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) passed a new law on October 23 for strengthening China’s border security management. The Land Border Law aims to improve coordination between the national, regional, and local authorities to maintain China’s national security and territorial integrity. It standardises how China patrols its massive 22,100 km land boundaries and borders with 14 countries. The law was first proposed in March 2021, approved at the closing meeting of the legislative session this Saturday and will go into effect by January 1, 2022.

With 62 clauses in seven chapters, the law underlines that “The PRC’s sovereignty and territorial integrity are sacred and inviolable and the state shall take measures to safeguard them.” It creates a legal framework for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the People’s Armed Police (PAP) and the border defence units to counter any invasion, encroachment, infiltration or provocation across its land borders. Furthermore, it also creates a framework for Chinese border areas’ civilian authorities to cooperate and assist China’s armed forces in preventing illegal border migration - thereby maintaining peace and stability in the border regions. Finally, the law also reiterates the chain of command and clarifies the leadership system, military tasks, and provincial governments’ responsibilities for China’s land border management system.

I have highlighted three basic drivers for this law in the Times of India, feel free to check that piece!

India responded to this development. “China must not use its new “Land Boundary Law” to justify any actions that alter the situation at the Line of Actual Control (LAC),” India's Ministry of External Affair's statement read. “China’s unilateral decision to bring about legislation which can have implications on our existing bilateral arrangements on border management as well as on the boundary question is of concern to us. Such a unilateral move will have no bearing on the arrangements that both sides have already reached earlier, whether on the boundary question or for maintaining peace and tranquillity along the LAC in India-China Border areas. We also expect that China will avoid undertaking action under the pretext of this law which could unilaterally alter the situation in the India-China border areas,” read the statement.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted to this, claiming that China’s new border law will not impact the existing boundary treaties or change the country’s position on the border-related question. Without naming India, the MFA spokesperson said that countries should avoid speculating about Chinese domestic law.

Moving on, China and India have agreed to hold the 25th round of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) meeting on border affairs soon after the deadlock arising from the 13th Corps Commander-level meeting. Shishir Gupta reports that the WMCC, headed by additional secretary-level officials on both sides, will have a tough time resolving disengagement and restoring patrolling rights to the Indian Army in Depsang Bulge and Charding Nullah Junction (CNJ), Demchok, due to the recalcitrant attitude of the Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA). This is the 11th WMCC meeting since the beginning of the ongoing military stand-off in eastern Ladakh.

Meanwhile, on the Chinese side, the PLA reportedly deployed more than 100 advanced long-range rocket launchers to its high altitude borders with India. The South China Morning Post’s Minnie Chan quotes a source in the PLA to claim that China is ramping up defences in preparation for the Himalayan winter. “The PLA has deployed more than 100 PCL-181 light, truck-mounted howitzers along borders with India. The firing range of this Chinese-developed launcher is double that of the M777,” claims the report. The PLA’s Xinjiang Military Command has also deployed a new type of all-terrain vehicle for winter logistics support along the borders with India.

On the Indian side, there have been plenty of reports from the eastern sector as most defence journalists from India’s major newspapers and news channels were in Arunachal Pradesh last week. I have highlighted key insights from these reports:

- The Indian Army strengthens its firepower by beefing overall defences along the LAC. It includes the upgraded L-70 defence guns and M777 ultra-light howitzers.

- India deploys Pinaka and Smerch long-range rockets, also BrahMos cruise missile near Tawang.

-The Indian Army initiates Tibetology for its young officers and men to understand Tibetan history, culture, language and topography.

- Units from India’s 17 Mountain Strike Corps are undergoing acclimatisation before heading for high-altitude regions to train in extreme cold in Arunachal Pradesh. The exercises will also include various IAF assets and integrated operations with a focus on spring offensive capabilities.

- Two alternative routes connecting the strategic border town of Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh to Assam’s Guwahati will open in the next few years, in addition to the only central axis that is operational at present. This includes a new western axis that is slated to come up in the next two years and another route that is being chalked out at present that will lie east of the central axis. At present, there is effectively one central axis connecting Guwahati and Tawang. This route includes two separate roads—the Balipara-Charduar-Tawang (BCT) road and the Orang-Kalaktang-Shergaon-Rupa-Tawang (OKSRT) road, both of which meet ahead of Tenga and from there merge into the existing central axis to Tawang.

Meanwhile, India successfully tested the 5000 km ranged Agni-5 ballistic missile. This range puts almost all of China within the missile’s target range. Though the government has claimed that it has a maximum range of around 5,000 km, several reports suggest that it can hit targets as distant as 8,000 km. The nuclear-capable missile can carry a warhead of around 1,500 kg and has a launch weight of 50,000 kg.

Elsewhere, India’s Home Minister chaired a National Security Strategic Conference last week to discuss rising Chinese cyber-attacks on critical installations within the country. The participants were told that while the Pakistani cyberattacks focussed on stealing identity and personal data, the Chinese hackers were more sophisticated, and they settled down in any network, striking at will. “There are several choke points that deter investigation, such as the origin of the message and from where the data packet was uploaded. The minister agreed to expedite any legal framework required to plug the gaps,” said an official who attended the conference.

Finally, check Dr Tanvi Madan’s recent report for CFR on Major Power Rivalry in South Asia. Dr Madan argues that China-India and the US-China rivalries are likely to have the biggest effect on the region – both in terms of risks and opportunities. The larger powers will seek to protect their interests while managing their rivalries. Smaller states in the region will hope to exercise agency and take advantage of major power rivalries while insulating themselves from any fallout. Together, these two dynamics will shape the geopolitical landscape of the region. She also adds that the outcomes of these rivalries have implications beyond South Asia and the Indian Ocean Region –for regional stability and security in the Indo-Pacific and for the global balance of power. She recommends that the US should help India and partner nations to deter and counter growing Chinese presence in the region (intelligence, military equipment, maritime areas, interoperability, defence agreements and regular consultations), encourage the peaceful resolution of territorial disputes, bolster crisis preparedness and management framework, promote the continued development of regional institutions, partnerships and explore areas of cooperation with China and upgrade US’ management and coordination of the South Asian affairs.

More Readings

-The Perils of Unresolved Boundary Issues: Former FS Nirupama Rao

-Squaring off Again in the Himalayan Heights: Sushant Singh

-China does not have the right to choose the Next Dalai Lama: Head of Tawang Monastery

II. Developing Stories

Taiwan and China

Last week, US President Joe Biden said that the US would defend Taiwan if China ever attacked the democratically governed island. “Yes, we have a commitment,” the President declared after being asked during a CNN Town Hall in Baltimore, Maryland, whether the US would defend Taiwan in the face of an attack by China. This was immediately inferred as the beginning of the change of the US policy to cross-strait affairs from long-held strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity. However, the White House clarified the comment claiming, “Our policy has not changed. He was not intending to convey a change in policy, nor has he made a decision to change our policy.”

This week, speaking at a virtual East Asia Summit, which Chinese Premier Li Keqiang also attended, President Biden reiterated that the US had a “rock-solid” commitment to Taiwan. “We are deeply concerned by China’s coercive ... actions,” said Biden, charging that they “threaten regional peace and stability.” Elsewhere, the US Secretary of the State, Antony Blinken, urged all UN members to support Taiwan’s robust participation in the UN system. He said allowing Taiwan to take part in international bodies was consistent with the US’ One-China policy. He added that Taiwan’s exclusion undermined the important work of the UN and its related bodies, citing the example that Taiwan was not represented at the International Civil Aviation Organisation or the World Health Assembly. Similarly, Rick Waters, deputy assistant secretary of state at the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, during a virtual talk that examined the implications of the UN decision for Taiwan said, “The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has misused Resolution 2758 to prevent Taiwan’s meaningful participation.” Resolution 2758 was passed in response to the UNGA resolution 1668 that required any change in China’s representation in the UN is to be determined by a two-thirds vote referring to Article 18 of the UN Charter. The resolution, passed on 25 October 1971, recognised the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as “the only legitimate representative of China to the United Nations” and removed “the representatives of Chiang Kai-shek” from the international organisation.

Meanwhile, in an interview with CNN, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen acknowledged the presence of US troops on the island for training purposes. The US military had posted and then deleted a video in early 2020 that showed US Army Special Forces training soldiers in Taiwan. In November 2020, Taiwan's Defence Ministry announced and then denied to local media that US troops were training local soldiers on the island. Now, Tsai confirmed it in her interview with CNN. However, she wouldn't say exactly how many US military personnel are on the island at present but said it was "not as many as people thought. We have a wide range of cooperation with the US aiming at increasing our defence capability," said Tsai.

China has reacted sharply to all these developments. Condemning the US speeches, China said that there is no room for compromise or concession over Taiwan. “When it comes to issues related to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and other core interests, there is no room for China to compromise or make concessions, and no one should underestimate the strong determination, firm will and strong ability of the Chinese people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” said Wang Wenbin, Foreign Ministry spokesperson. He also noted that the participation of the Taiwan region in activities of international organisations must be handled in accordance with the one-China principle. “The Taiwan authorities’ attempt to expand the so-called “international” space by brownnosing foreign forces is, in essence, trying to expand the room for “Taiwan independence” and separatism and will only prove a failure.”

More Chinese reactions: Xinhua commentary on One-China principle, CCTV responds to Blinken’s statement, former Chinese envoy on Taipei in the UN, People’s Daily commentary on Washington should stop playing with fire, PLA responds in the monthly press conference that it’s on high alert and GT reports that newer Chinese helicopters spotted near Taiwan.

Do watch this video, where John Oliver discusses Taiwan’s history of being governed by other countries, its fraught present-day relationship with China, and what its citizens would like their future to look like.

Meanwhile, Japan’s defence minister warned this week that Russia’s annexation of Crimea is an example of how China could invade Taiwan. “An invasion may begin without anyone realising it, and a war might be fought without the use of military forces.”

Finally, do check the latest CNA report on preventing a Chinese Fait Accompli against Taiwanese islands. The document is inspired by wargaming, where the PLA marines and special op forces rapidly seize Taiwanese-controlled Dongsha Island without warning. The PLA forces secured the island and returned to the mainland, taking 500 Taiwanese marines with them. Broadly, the authors observe (based on the wargaming scenarios) that the US and Taiwan struggled to compel a Chinese withdrawal from the island without escalating the crisis. China avoided further escalation given the first-mover advantage, constrained territorial gain and geographic proximity. Punitive non-military actions by the US took too long to produce tangible results. More aggressive military actions risked an escalation to war, which both US and Taiwan wished to avoid. With a few non-escalatory options and the onus of escalation falling on the US and Taiwan, the game reaffirmed the difficulty in rolling back the Chinese territorial gains.

The document is called the Poison Frog Strategy because the authors recommend that much as poison frogs advertise the risk they pose to predators through bright colours, the US and Taiwan should plan, coordinate, and above all communicate their deterrence policies in advance of a crisis rather than improvising a response after China has acted. They also highlighted the importance of Japan’s role in deterring Chinese aggression and US options through Asian security agreements and organisations with the help of US partners and allies.

Also, read why the PLA prefers the southwestern zone to fly towards Taiwan.

The South China Sea

Since the collision of the US nuclear submarine with an unknown object in the South China Sea, China has demanded an end to the US military operations in the region, saying it posed a threat to regional security and increased the risk of collisions and nuclear leaks in strategic waterways. The MFA spokesperson has repeatedly called the US behaviour “irresponsible” and an “approach that lacks transparency.”

Now, Jun Sheng (钧声) also returns to the PLA Daily. Jun Sheng is a pen name used for writing on the US activities in the South China Sea. Under this pseudonym, eight articles were published last year in the PLA Daily after former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s speech indicating the US’ change of approach to the region. Now, under this pseudonym, the PLA Daily has published four articles in the past two weeks. Broadly, these articles questioned US presence and intentions in the region while also blaming it for disturbing the regional peace and creating environmental pollution.

Here are the four articles:

美方到底想遮掩什么？ (What exactly does the US want to cover up?)
国际核安全最大的风险源 (The biggest risk source of international nuclear safety)
美国是搅局南海的最大祸源 (The U.S. is the biggest disaster in the South China Sea)
美国是世界和平的最大破坏者 (America is the biggest destroyer of world peace)

Meanwhile, as China continues with its anti-US rant, a US carrier strike group is conducting joint exercises with a Japanese helicopter destroyer in the region. The USS Carl Vinson and its strike group are in the contested waters for the exercises with the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force’s JS Kaga. It comes after China and Russia conducted joint patrols, an anti-submarine exercise and a first joint passage through the Tsugaru Strait in the Japanese archipelago, in what was seen as a move to counter pressure from the US and its allies.

Elsewhere, China’s largest civilian patrol boat entered service last week. The state broadcaster CCTV reported that it would be used to deliver strategic resources and help protect the country’s maritime claims. The Haixun 09, or “sea patrol,” with a 10,700-tonne displacement, is the most advanced ship in the civilian fleet and is equipped with water cannons, an aerial tracking system, medical rescue capabilities and a helicopter landing deck.

Xi on Weapons Development

In the military work conference held in Beijing on October 25 and 26, President Xi Jinping emphasised the development of new and advanced weaponry and equipment to contribute to the realisation of the goal set for the People's Liberation Army's centenary. Hailing the historic achievements in weaponry and equipment development over the past five years, Xi said such progress has served as the material and technological underpinning for the country's strategic capabilities, military strength in particular. He called for efforts to accelerate the implementation of tasks for the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025) and advance the building of a modernised management system for weaponry and equipment.

Zhang Youxia, a Political Bureau member of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Military Commission Vice Chairman, also attended the meeting. In his speech, he emphasised the need to thoroughly implement President Xi’s instructions to promote strong joint forces in weaponry and equipment construction, focus on national security needs, and keep a close eye on actual military struggles. He also emphasised the need to boost sci-tech self-reliance and self-improvement and speed up the modernisation of weaponry and equipment.

H/t: Prof M. Taylor Fravel: Check this paragraph from the PLA Daily article on the acceleration of modernisation of weapons and equipment. It reads:

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the whole army has insisted on putting the construction of weapons and equipment on the strategic position of priority development, guided by combat needs, closely following the development direction of world military science and technology, advanced planning and layout, and accelerated the pace of development, and the technological status of weapons and equipment has been improved. Great improvement and the overall level of weapons and equipment has been significantly improved. At the same time, we must also see that compared with the requirements for safeguarding national security and development interests, compared with the requirements for winning an informatised war, and compared with the world's military powers, there is still a significant gap in many aspects. At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution, industrial revolution, and military revolution are evolving rapidly. The degree of informatisation of modern warfare continues to increase, and the characteristics of intelligence are increasingly emerging. This provides a rare opportunity to advance the modernisation of weaponry and equipment and puts forward higher requirements. "Those who come but cannot be lost are also in time; those who cannot be lost when they are done are also opportunities." In the face of changes in times, wars, opponents, and technological changes, we can only be determined and determined, strengthen our sense of urgency, and bury our heads in pain. Only by working hard, focusing more proactively on tomorrow's war to speed up the development of weapons and equipment, and stepping up the construction of a modern management system for weapons and equipment can we fully create a new situation in weapons and equipment construction and make positive contributions to the realisation of the goal of the army's centennial struggle.

Put simply, as Prof Fravel highlights, the PLA sees itself as making important but insufficient progress in weapons development - Also an example of the PLA describing its perceived shortcomings.

China’s Tajikistan Base

China will build a base for police in Tajikistan near the Afghan border, a Tajik official said on Thursday, amid concerns from both countries about the Taliban’s ability to keep a lid on extremist groups. A parliamentary spokesman said Tajikistan’s lower house had approved the plan to build the base in the Ishkashim district of the mountainous Gorno-Badakhshan region. “All construction is funded by the Chinese side. After construction, the base will be transferred to the Tajik [police].” He said China was providing US$8.5 million in assistance for the base. No Chinese troops will be stationed at the facility, according to recent reports.