New UT/Texas Tribune Poll finds GOP incumbents holding their own for now, Biden sinking in Texas
Hi All,
The first wave of October, 2021 UT/Texas Tribune Poll results released by The Texas Tribune today focus on the 2022 election, covered in a story by Patrick Svitek, and on Texans’ general attitudes toward elections, voting, and a little on redistricting, covered in a story by Cassandra Pollock. Look for more results early next week in the Tribune.
On the whole, the results paint an interesting portrait of the public opinion terrain in the state a year out from the 2022 election. We’ll follow up with more analysis of the results in the coming weeks when we can connect different strands of material that won’t be rolled out until early next week. For today, here are a few first-takes on today’s results, with links to a longer unpacking of these observations in a post at the Texas Politics Project website.
Texans' views of the national political environment are grim, which, as we saw in Virginia, potentially provides an effective foil for Republican state officeholders and candidates in 2022 amidst increasing disapproval of Joe Biden’s job performance. President Joe Biden’s job approval numbers continue to slip, falling from 40% approve / 51% disapprove in August to 34% approve / 55% disapprove in October (producing a net approval change from -11 to -22). Amidst the slog of Democratic in-fighting on the Biden congressional agenda, only 19% approve of the job Congress is doing while 61% disapprove. MORE->
 
Governor Greg Abbott’s numbers have stabilized, suggesting that, as of now, he is in a solid though not completely secure position in the March primary election, and in the general election one year out. His job approval numbers improved slightly (from 41% in August to 43% in October, with disapproval decreasing from 50% to 48%, for a net swing from -9 to -5); he is polling over 50% against the GOP primary field; and he is polling 9% ahead of his most likely Democratic challenger (who he has already started campaigning against), leading Beto O’Rourke in a hypothetical head-to-head, 46% to 37%, with a reserve of 14% of uncommitted GOP voters who seem very unlikely to cross party lines in a general election (particularly for O’Rourke). MORE->
The national political environment seems to be pushing Texas independents in a direction likely to add to GOP advantages in Texas if current conditions hold. Negative partisanship and increased party competition in Texas have made independent voters more important than ever. On one hand, independents are generally negative in their assessments of most macro-conditions and political leadership – Greg Abbott’s job approval among independents is underwater (again), with 27% approving and 57% disapproving. But Joe Biden’s ratings are even worse (20% / 57%), and in a hypothetical match-up for governor between Abbott and Beto O’Rourke, they favor Abbott 38% to 24%. MORE->
 
Speaking of Beto O’Rourke, he’s a known quantity and, for better and worse, the only game in town for Democrats at the top of the ballot. Forced to include the as-yet-undeclared O’Rourke in a hypothetical primary match-up with a group of unknown, but declared, Democratic candidates for governor, he unsurprisingly emerged as the overwhelming favorite among potential Democratic primary voters. But his favorability ratings reflect both the Texas electorate’s familiarity with him and the baggage he’s gained since bursting (Road tripping? Skateboarding?) into statewide politics in advance of his near-defeat of Senator Ted Cruz in 2018. As O’Rourke continues to wait in the wings, 35% of voters view him favorably (20% very), with 50% viewing him unfavorably (a very substantial 44% “very unfavorable”). MORE->
 
Incumbent Attorney General Ken Paxton remains the front runner in the GOP primary, with no signs of a clear breakout candidate among his challengers. Paxton leads a seemingly potentially strong field with 48% of the vote, followed in a distant second by George P. Bush at 16%, and neither Matt Krause (3%) nor Eva Guzman (2%) breaking single digits. Observers will be quick to see the threat of a run-off here, but someone in the field issuing to need get more traction than is evident now. MORE->
Widespread Republican distrust has made skepticism of the accuracy of national elections the default attitude among a majority of Texans. Only a third of Texans say that they think official election results in the United States are “very accurate,” with a vast gulf between Democrats and Republicans. Among Texas Democrats, 64% say U.S. elections are very accurate, compared to only 9% of Republicans who say the same; a disconcerting 66% of Republicans say national election results are either somewhat (31%) or very (35%) inaccurate. MORE->
 
It you haven't already been tempted to click on the MORE-> links above, the blog post Josh Blank and I put together also has some quick hits on approval numbers for Lt. Governor Patrick, Speaker Phelan, & the Texas Legislature. Stay tuned next week for more results from the poll on a range of policy issues, with a focus on state level issues with strong national implications, including abortion, guns, immigration/border security, and a raft of other issues championed by some and opposed by others during the legislative session. Watch The Texas Tribune early Monday morning for the next wave of results.
Have a good weekend in the meantime, and keep in touch.
JH
Jim Henson
Executive Director, The Texas Politics Project
College of Liberal Arts / Department of Government
The University of Texas at Austin
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