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3 November 2021
Climate action beyond COP26
3 November 2021

Climate change is the fundamental challenge of the twenty-first century. The past ten years have been among the hottest on record. Nowhere is safe. The world is on a dangerous pathway to 2.7C degrees of heating rather than the 1.5C limit agreed by countries around the world. To keep temperatures from rising above 1.5C, the world must cut carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 and 100% by 2050. Anything less is catastrophic. Yet hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough are fading. The recent G20 meeting in Rome failed to make meaningful progress. 


Over the next two weeks, global leaders are gathering along with 30,000 delegates at the COP26 to see if they can achieve a breakthrough. Despite lofty rhetoric, the prospects look dim. Levels of ambition and trust are in distressingly short supply. And it is not just governments, but also the private sector that is coming under growing pressure from investor groups, consumers and activists to step-up the “race to zero”. Unless real changes are achieved, the world is expected to register a 16% increase in emissions by 2030 (compared to 2010).

Networks driving climate finance to lower-income countries. Access the full network visualization here. Image by: Igarapé Institute

Drastic times call for drastic measures. Climate financing must be accelerated to address the profound injustices of climate change. COP26 negotiators understand well that climate-related shocks and stresses are exacerbating global economic inequality and disproportionately affecting those least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, the top 10 greenhouse gas emitters are responsible for more than two-thirds of all global emissions. 

Just three polluters — China, the European Union, and the United States — generate over 40% of all global emissions, 16 times what is generated by the bottom 100 countries. Just 100 companies, virtually all of them in the oil, gas, and coal sectors, generated more than 70% of all greenhouse emissions between 1988-2015. The bottom line is that the wealthy countries and companies that are driving climate change have an obligation to support and invest in solutions for those most adversely affected. 

In a recent article with DEVEX, SecDev finds that collectively, wealthy countries have committed under $80 billion a year from 2013-2018, less than the $100 billion promised under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Most of their climate financing was in the form of loans, and not grants. What is more, public financing is far outpaced by private financing. Yet even the combined input of public and private actors is still insufficient to meet the challenge.

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Cities offer an unexpected opportunity on the climate action front. As SecDev explains in Foreign Policy and Resolve, cities generate almost 70% of CO2, NO2 and PM2.5 emissions. Cities are also facing threats of pollution, overheating and rising seas. Yet cities are hubs of innovation when it comes to climate mitigation and adaptation. A growing number of them are already investing in climate-proofing infrastructure, expanding nature-based solutions and accelerating the green transition though many have yet to catalogue their exposure or craft a climate-proofing strategy.  

According to the 2021 IPCC report, climate threats are becoming more common and more dangerous. Surveys of the world’s largest 800 cities suggest that over 90% of them face significant environmental risks. Almost 600 coastal cities are also facing dangerous sea level rise. With the world’s urban population set to increase from 4 billion today to 6.5 billion by 2050, these risks are expected to grow more severe. As SecDev explained to Reuters, not only will rising heat lead to more insecurity, the costs of shocks and stresses will rise into the trillions of dollars in the coming decades. 

SecDev teamed up with Senseable City Lab at MIT to explore the ways in which cities can supercharge climate action. In a recent article with Foreign Policy and interview with BBC, SecDev examined the ways in which cities are leveraging big data, machine learning, and geospatial platforms to enhance mitigation and adaptation at scale. SecDev works with cities and city networks to diagnose physical, social and digital infrastructures at risk; assess city preparedness and planning; build benchmarks for risk reduction and resilience promotion; and develop approaches to predict, manage and redbound from climate risks.

We need to take action now to protect the Amazon Basin | Robert Muggah | TEDxSaoPaulo, June 2021.

Another key priority at COP26 is protecting the world’s forests, oceans and biomes. Among the most at-risk are the tropical forests of the Amazon, a region spanning 8 countries and over 7 million km2. The Amazon is dangerously close to experiencing “die-back” - when the world’s largest rainforest becomes the largest savannah. The implications for everything from food production to ocean currents are far-reaching and would end any hope of coming close to Paris Climate Agreement targets. There are some green shoots of hope at COP26. Over 100 countries, including Australia, Colombia, Indonesia and the US, committed to halting all deforestation by 2030 and 30 financial institutions promise to eliminate it from their portfolios by 2025.

SecDev is working with partners to address ecological destruction and identify strategies to support a green economy and fight environmental crime. Afterall, more than 95% of the deforestation occurring in the Amazon is illegal. During a recent TED-X talk, SecDev examined the factors shaping the dangerous deforestation of the Amazon, signalling the importance of harnessing the region’s green economy and building sustainable carbon markets. SecDev also spoke with Mongabay and BBC about what is at stake in key countries such as Brazil. 

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Another reason for the slow-pace of action is the escalating threat of online climate-related disinformation and misinformation. A white paper from SecDev Group finds that relatively small doses of misinformation and disinformation can lower acceptance of climate change. A relatively small but vocal group of deniers can have a disproportionate impact on public opinion. SecDev has found that uptick in climate disasters in 2020 and 2021 is precipitating a shift from denialism to “distraction”, “delay” and “inactivism”. It tends to highlight the “uncertainty” of climate science, the “benefits” of global warming and the “risks” of government-led mitigation, all of which can contribute to policy paralysis.

Climate misinformation and disinformation is in full swing during COP26. The good news is that a number of efforts are underway to prevent and disrupt these kinds of digital harms. While coming under criticism for not doing enough, social media companies are focusing on several types of interventions including education, inoculation, technological measures and regulatory efforts. 

SecDev is also working with technology platforms to develop and deploy multilayer strategies for disrupting digital harms. SecDev is focusing on rapid identification to monitor patterns of misinformation and disinformation across geographies; targeted engagement to update fact-checking policies; as well as “myth-busting” capabilities to debunk non-factual narratives. 

Climate change is already affecting every part of the planet. SecDev is committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, meeting climate financing commitments, promoting greener, inclusive and more resilient cities, and achieving zero deforestation targets. These are not just priorities for COP26, but for guaranteeing a liveable planet.

About SecDev

SecDev is an agile research and innovation firm helping clients navigate digital-geopolitical, geospatial and geodigital risk. SecDev builds value through innovation in strategic foresight, data science and urban analytics. SecDev’s team is fluent in technology, global in scope and results-oriented. SecDev empowers clients, such as national governments, technology companies and international organizations, to make informed choices that deliver value in the digital-urban age. To learn more, visit http://www.secdev.com.

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