Paw Tracker newsletter (Week of Nov 15)

Both China and the US have been trying to win the hearts and minds of the African people in the past week. While the US seems primarily concerned with repairing and reinstating its influence on the continent after years of decline and major damage during the Trump presidency, some of China’s recent policy shifts appear to be already bearing fruit in Africa. President Xi’s “no new coal” pledge in September is affecting Chinese involvement in South Africa’s Musina Makhado SEZ, for example. Expect more charm from the Chinese side at the upcoming FOCAC from Nov 29-30, and for the two sides’ competition for hearts and minds in Africa to continue for the foreseeable future.

Talk of the Town

With just one week to go until the 8th Forum on China Africa Cooperation, the triennial forum of China and all African countries bar Eswatini, China’s ambassadors across the continent have been on a PR charm offensive. In the last two weeks alone, opinion pieces boasting the successes of China-Africa cooperation have appeared in the Seychellois and Tanzanian press, along with prominent Ambassador media appearances in Nigeria and Senegal. They also coincide with US Secretary of State Blinken’s visit to Senegal, Nigeria and Kenya. A battle for hearts and minds on the continent seems well underway.

Not surprisingly, “public goods” were front and center of the Ambassadors’ comments. Amb. Chen Mingjin in Tanzania highlighted China’s dispatching of vaccines, medical equipment and expert teams to African countries during the pandemic, and listed healthcare as one area to expect announcements for further cooperation. Amb. Guo Wei in the Seychelles echoed these points, emphasizing that China and the Seychelles are “advancing cooperation despite difficulties”. A helping hand in times of trouble, particularly through the pandemic, is becoming a consistent talking point of China’s overseas image building activities.

Another highlight of the Ambassadors’ comments was trade, which last year reached record highs. Not only is trade promoted as a marker of economic development and bilateral relations, it is also presented as an area that African countries could further exploit. Chinese Ambassador to Nigeria, Cui Jianchun, for example, recently highlighted to press that “China’s consumption market is larger than the US” (by which he meant simply that China has a larger middle class population than the US) and his hopes for more Nigerian value added products to target the Chinese market. 

But market access is actually one major area of disgruntlement for a number of African countries. Earlier this month Ugandan President Museveni told Bloomberg that he will press China to give African countries US or EU-style access to Chinese markets.

Of note through the Ambassadors’ comments is an insistence of the equality of China and African countries, despite massive trade imbalances. Both Amb. Chen and Amb. Guo use the term “African brothers” in their op-eds, implying both strong, equal friendship and harking back to an era of post-colonial solidarity in the 1950s and 1960s.

But it was not just Chinese ambassadors who were spreading messages of equality and solidarity on the African continent last week. Blinken’s impeccably timed first official visit to Africa saw speeches emphasizing messages of “partnership” and support for a more proactive role for Africa in the world. “​The United States firmly believes that it’s time to stop treating Africa as a subject of geopolitics – and start treating it as the major geopolitical player it has become,” he said in his key speech during the three country trip, titled ‘The United States and Africa: Building a 21st Century Partnership’.

Though both sides seem keen to avoid speaking explicitly about each other, it seems the China-US rivalry is written between the lines, spaces and the very character strokes of the publicity piece they direct to African audiences this month.

This week's highlight projects

South Africa: Ambassador Chen implies Chinese coal projects in Limpopo may be halted

In an interesting exchange of letters with David Le Page, vice chair of civil society group Fossil Free South Africa, and China’s ambassador to Pretoria, Chen Xiaodong, appeared to confirm that Chinese companies will no longer be involved in controversial coal power and mining projects in the Musina Makhado SEZ, Limpopo province. 

Asked to confirm whether, in light of President Xi’s no-new-coal-overseas announcement at the UN General Assembly, Chinese companies and banks will no longer pursue the projects, Amb Chen responded:

“The international community has spoken highly of China’s commitment [at the UNGA]… China is a country that keeps promises and delivers on commitments. China is willing to work with all countries, South Africa included, to establish and improve a green and low-carbon circular economic system.”

A bit more context: The Musina Makhado SEZ is an industrial park envisioned to host a number of heavy industry projects including metallurgical and energy facilities. Since its approval in 2016, the SEZ has been the subject of criticism for its potential water and climate impacts. By one calculation, its lifetime carbon emissions would account for between 10% and 14% of South Africa’s entire carbon budget under the Paris Agreement.

Other project & corporate updates

Thailand: Chinese company awarded contract at Thailand’s largest port

Last week, China Harbour Engineering Company, the largest dredging company in China and the second largest in the world, won a construction contract worth USD 1 billion at Thailand’s Laem Chabang Port. The port is the country’s largest container port in the country, handling 80% of national throughput. A public-private partnership, the project (building up the port’s Phase 3 Section F) has been conceded to China Harbour for 35 years and will take an estimated 4 years to construct. It is the first time a Chinese company has won a PPP contract in the port sector.

Why this gets our attention: Ports are strategically critical pieces of infrastructure and central to the trade and transport routes of the BRI. Laem Chabang Port represents just the latest in a string of major port investments made by China. Chinese companies have invested in more than 100 ports in 63 countries. But those investments have inspired controversy: it was China Merchants Port’s investment in Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port that initially sparked fears, later disproven, of “debt trap diplomacy,” and some analysts worry whether China’s investments in ports are meant for purposes other than commerce. Such investments in recent years have also demonstrated the geographical elasticity of the BRI: Chinese companies now own major stakes in critical ports in Australia, Greece, the United States, France, and Belgium.

Worth your time

Coming up next Tuesday, an online seminar organised by ODI will bring together prominent Chinese and American researchers and scholars to discuss China’s role in multilateral development banks. With financial flows for global development an ever more pressing question - where will the money for the global energy transition come from, for example - and China’s increasing role as a creditor, rather than borrower, of development financier, the discussion will likely be of interest to many of our readers. Register online here.