Mozambique
If you live in Mozambique the climate emergency has arrived, as global temperatures have increased by approximately 1°C Over the past century and the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has risen by 50%. Mozambique is one of Africa's most vulnerable countries to climate change. It was the most affected by the impacts of extreme weather events in 2019, according to the Global Climate Risk Index 2021. Destruction to crops from extreme weather and falls in agricultural productivity and drought threaten the health and economic stability of many Mozambicans. Flooding is a growing risk given its location downstream of nine major river basins. Sea level rise is already affecting half of the population who live in low-lying coastal communities. It remains one of the poorest countries in the world: almost 70% of the population live on less than £2 a day.
Planetary heating
Global heating means that Arctic Ocean Sea ice coverage will be lost whilst 99% of all coral reefs would be destroyed. Agricultural output could also drop by 30% by 2050 - even as the amount of food needed by growing populations is predicted to rise by 50%. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and the fires, floods, and droughts that they can bring, have increased in the past 50 years, while the global average sea level has risen by between 16 and 21 cms since 1900, and at a rate of more than 3 mm per year over the past two decades. These changes have also contributed to widespread impacts on many plants and animals reducing vital biodiversity.
Current global efforts are still going in the wrong direction, with countries projected to emit more carbon in 2030 than in 2010, which could lead to global warming approaching 2.7C by the end of the century.” This excellent short video from The Royal Society of Arts sets out the facts and scale of the planetary climate emergency that we face
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUh-TXKIdiE
Glasgow Climate COP26
So, what took place at the
Glasgow Climate COP26 talks was a life-or-death matter to Mozambique. Positive decisions were made such as pledges to stop deforestation by 2030, to cut methane emissions by 30% by 2030, and the rather disappointing promise to ‘phase down unabated coal use’ rather than ‘phase out’. The global planetary goal is to arrest the global temperature rise at 1.5C, the agreed ‘Glasgow Pact’ failed to meet this. The promises made, if kept, may keep the rise to 2C. Current trends indicate that the rise could be a disastrous 2.4C.
Inequality and climate change
Climate change is massive issue of injustice, the richer nations caused the problem, but the poorer countries such as those in Africa who emit around 3% of global carbon emissions, suffer the biggest consequences. At the global level in 2019, UN figures reveal that the top 10% of global emitters (771 million individuals) emit on average 31 tonnes of CO2 per person per year and are responsible for about 48% of global CO2 emissions. The bottom 50% (3.8 billion individuals) emit on average 1.6 tonnes and are responsible for close to 12% of all emissions. The global top 1% emits on average 110 tonnes and contributed to 17% of all emissions that year. Even in the UK it is an issue, 70% of carbon heavy UK flights are taken by just 15% of the population while 57% never fly at all. The average African uses less electricity each year than one refrigerator consumes in the US or Europe. Historical emissions inequality between regions is very large: North America and Europe are responsible for around half of all emissions since the Industrial Revolution. China contributed to about 11% of the historical total and Sub-Saharan Africa just 4%
Climate plans
The plan to remedy this is the promised ‘Global Finance dialogue’, by which wealthy countries would provide $100bn p.a. to help poorer nations cope with climate changes, this total has not been met and has now been deferred to 2023. The UK Government has also cut development aid by $4bn undermining trust in rich countries to deliver promised funding. These funds are urgently needed to help provide cleaner technology and help poor countries adapt to climate change. There is also a demand from poorer countries to fund a ‘Loss and Damage’ account by which compensation for losses already created by climate change. Mozambique has suffered massive economic hits so could benefit if this were put in place by ongoing discussions via the ‘Santiago Network’. UK overseas aid spending should return to 0.7% of GDP “as soon as possible”.
Fighting poverty
Africa too must be allowed to develop and build up its infrastructure - something that requires more energy, more power to eliminate poverty and to quickly find alternatives to fossil fuels to provide this energy. Despite the large-scale and deep impact of climate change on Africa, the support countries are given to adjust is minimal. The global consensus seems to be that all countries must quickly achieve a target of net zero - which means not adding to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, so any emissions are balanced out by removing greenhouse gasses via plants or new technologies. How can the massive development and energy challenges Africa faces be solved? Mozambique has huge offshore gas deposits. Should these be exploited, or will it get funding to develop alternatives? The space for development can only be created whilst preventing climate change if carbon reductions are reduced elsewhere and renewable energy is supported in Africa.
Action by those who can
The priority must be that the richest who created the problem, use the most carbon and have the resources to cut waste and switch to renewables must take the lead. The UK set ambitious new climate targets ahead of the UN Summit aiming for at least 68% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the decade, compared to 1990, further pledging to cut 78% of its emissions by 2035, from a 1990 baseline. But the UK Government's current plans are projected to deliver less than a quarter of the cuts needed.
Power Politics
The science may be accepted, but profit and power politics still have great influence. Europe’s 25 biggest banks, including Barclays and BNP Paribas SA, all of which have pledged to eliminate their net financed emissions by mid-century provided $55 billion to new oil and gas projects in 2021, according to ShareAction and data compiled by Bloomberg. The biggest European provider of fossil finance in 2021 was HSBC, which pumped $8.7 billion into oil and gas expansion at companies like ExxonMobil Corp. and Saudi Aramco. The UK government is considering licences for new oil and gas fields in the North Sea, amidst arguments that new fossil fuel development is needed to reduce energy bills. There is a danger that rows over net zero within the UK government, which have seen the ‘Net Zero Scrutiny Group’ linking the cost-of-living crisis to the carbon reduction agenda, will undermine progress. Locally, The UK's Planning Inspectorate has given Bristol Airport the green light to complete its expansion plans, despite opposition from local councils and concerns that the move would undermine the UK's net-zero transition. The UK was criticised in September for dropping references to the temperature goals of the Paris climate agreement from a prospective trade deal with Australia.
Global Carbon Budget
Since the industrial revolution, around 2500 billion tonnes of CO2 have been emitted by humankind. Based on current emissions rates, the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 2°C above preindustrial levels (that is, 900 billion tonnes of CO2) will be entirely depleted in 18 years. To limit global warming to 1.5°C, the remaining budget (300 billion tonnes of CO2) will be depleted in 6 years.
The bottom line is that we need to cut carbon emissions by around 7% p.a. or 50% by 2030!
What should the UK do?
Bring the carbon century to a close and create a sustainable 21st century
End to North Sea oil and gas exploration, Ditch fossil fuel subsidies, abolish or reduce the $420bn (£313bn) spent each year by governments on subsidies for the fossil fuel industry. Introduce a price for carbon use. No fracking. Support solar, wind and wave power instead.
Stop adding to deforestation. There are plans to clean up the UK’s supply chains to help protect forests and reduce climate emissions, but they will not stop companies buying from legal deforestation and they do not address human rights abuses.
Change diets, food production methods and behaviours -people are shifting diets away from meat and dairy, cutting back on flying and pledging to change carbon-polluting habits. Schools, institutions, companies, and individuals can all help increase demand for climate-friendly, plastic-free consumerism.
Scrap most transport plans. The £24bn roads programme, proposals for many new runways and airport expansions are not needed, will add to emissions, and could be shelved without much complaint. The money saved would allow the government to concentrate on popular, sustainable public transport schemes. Assist electrical vehicle take up – consider road pricing. The UK could work with others to press the International Maritime Organization to adopt ocean speed limits. This would greatly reduce air pollution and save billions of tonnes of carbon over the next decades.
House Building. New regulations due to come into effect in 2022 are intended to reduce carbon emissions from new-build homes by about 30% compared with current standards. Assist householders to switch to renewables. Insulate right now.
Support Biodiversity and help nature provide some of the solutions to climate change. Stop peat extraction.
Deliver on global funds and fairer, climate-friendly terms of trade to enable poorer countries to cut emissions and develop renewable energy. Restore UK aid cuts. We lead on COP26 all this year, we must be a global force, working with governments across the world to bring the promises of cutting emissions, developing renewables, and building support for the Global Finance dialogue to its fruition.
There is positive news!
The price of solar electricity has dropped 89% in 10 years and the price of onshore wind dropped 70%. In a historic victory for climate change, a court ordered Shell to cut its carbon emissions by 45% by the year 2030. Greenland announced it would suspend all new oil and gas exploration to fight climate change and focus on sustainable energy development. Kenya already generates a far greater share of its renewable power than the US or Europe. For the first time in Europe's history, people bought more electric and hybrid vehicles than diesel vehicles in September 2021. On Sept. 22, 2019, an estimated 6 million people around the world joined the global climate strike making it likely the largest climate rally ever. According to the 2021 IPCC report, we have 8.3-9.7 years before we exceed the 1.5℃ global warming limit. But researchers say that moving all conferences online could extend that deadline by around 1.5 years.
2022- A vital year!
Solutions and actions exist, vested interests from fossil fuel protagonists will challenge change but the urgency of the climate emergency mean that key issues must be resolved by the next COP27. The UK will continue to lead the talks until Egypt takes over at the next summit, Cop27, 7-18
TH November. British leadership will be essential to the success of Cop27, as countries must use the next eight months to revise their national emissions-cutting plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as they agreed to do at Glasgow. Global heating is the biggest humanitarian and natural emergency we face. Africa where humanity began will be at the centre of the debate. All our energy derives from our personal star, ninety- two million miles away, our sun, which in a single hour, provides enough power for the Earth’s needs, more than the entire world consumes in a year. Our planet can provide if we act together.
Useful Links
UN climate change
https://unfccc.int/ https://unfccc.int/calendar/events-list
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
https://www.ipcc.ch/
COP 27
https://sdg.iisd.org/events/2021-un-climate-change-conference-unfccc-cop-27/
UK Committee on CC
https://www.theccc.org.uk/
Carbon Brief is a UK-based website covering the latest developments in climate science, climate policy and energy policy
https://www.carbonbrief.org/
Communications specialists on a mission to drive positive social and environmental impact.
https://www.greenhouse.agency/
Key dates on Climate in 2022
https://www.greenhouse.agency/blog/the-10-climate-change-events-you-need-to-know-about-in-2022/
The UK in Mozambique
https://www.facebook.com/ukinmozambique