The State of the Future Index (SOFI) is an assessment of the potential 10-year outlook of the future by aggregating forecasts for a set of selected indicators. The forecasts are based on 20-years of historical data and judgments about the best and worst plausible value for each of the indicators ten years from now. SOFI has been computed by The Millennium Project since the year 2000. Time-to-time the set of indicators, their plausible ten-year best and worst values, as well as their respective weight/importance in the SOFI are reassessed.
This Real-time Delphi is designed to collect judgments for the next State of the Future Index. The instructions concerning the questionnaire are included below and they will be displayed at your first access to the questionnaire; after that, they can be accessed by clicking on "Survey info" under the "Help" button (upper right corner of the screen). If you have any difficulties, please contact Elizabeth Florescu elizabeth@millennium-project.org.
In order to access the questionnaire:
- Click this link (or copy into your browser: http://server.halnyx.com/login/cace580c0e5d251fc11aac3b6d004af5)
- On your first access, please use "Registration" (the link below the login box) to create an account
- You will receive an email confirming your registration and access to the questionnaire
- When you first login, please use the email with which you registered, and create a password (it has to be at least 8 characters, containing a combination of upper case, lower case, and number.) You have to use these credentials each time you login, to retrieve your own answers and to see how the responses evolve.
- The following Introduction and instructions will appear when you first login:
WELCOME!
Welcome to the Real-Time Delphi that collects judgments for computing the 2030 State of the Future Index (SOFI). Your judgments are invited to assess the 29 indicators that compose the 2030 SOFI. The questionnaire is open until January 31, 2022.
You do not have to complete the entire questionnaire at once; you can -- and are encouraged to -- to return as many times as you want to continue completing, or to see how the results evolve, or to change your own answers if you wish to. Also, you do not have to answer all the questions; feel free to address only those for which you have an informed opinion.
When you want to skip a question, just ignore the red message "Not all required assessments provided." and click the "Later" button or directly on the link to another question.
For each indicator, the participants are asked to provide:
- the best and worst potential value the indicator might have in 2030
- the weight the indicator should have in the SOFI
- comments supporting their judgments, and/or about potential events that could considerably change the trajectory of the respective indicator. The "Comments" section becomes active after you enter your quantitative responses. After providing your own comment(s), you will also see the other participants' comments, which you can rate or comment on. Although you can add several comments, you can only change/edit your own comments during one minute after saving them.
All answers are anonymous and no attributions can be made. If you want a certain comment to be attributed to you, please indicate your name before the respective comment. All participants will be acknowledged in the List of Participants and will receive the results of the study, except if they indicate otherwise. The questionnaire and data handling are compliant with the European Union GDPR.
We are looking forward to your inputs and thank you very much for your participation.
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