Talks between Iran’s government and world powers over the future of Iran’s nuclear program continue. The US and Iran are still not communicating directly; Britain, China, France, Germany, and Russia are shuttling between them.

The good news is that they’re all still talking. The bad news is that, after eight rounds of negotiations, the main players haven’t agreed on anything that would constitute a breakthrough.

Even the good news isn’t that great. No, Iranian officials haven’t yet exited the room in anger, but they have good reason to just keep talking, according to Eurasia Group’s Henry Rome — even if they have no intention of working toward a deal. Negotiations, Rome warns, “provide political cover to advance the nuclear program.”

They make it harder for the US and Europe to dial up new pressure on Iran or for Israel to target its nuclear facilities and scientists. They give Russia and China a reason to defend Iran’s position.

They also protect (what’s left of) Iran’s economic stability by ensuring sanctions don’t immediately get tighter. And perhaps, Tehran may reason, the Americans might improve their offer.

Iran’s (mis?) calculation

But Iran’s government, now led by Ebrahim Raisi, a president more openly hostile than his predecessor toward the West, may feel it has little more to lose by continuing to say no.

After all, Iran’s “resistance economy” have survived tough sanctions before, and the government believes that new protests inside Iran against economic hardship can be contained — or, if necessary, crushed.

And what if Donald Trump becomes US president again in three years? Won’t he just tear up whatever Iran has signed, just as he withdrew the US from the last nuclear agreement?

Maybe. But revival of the nuclear pact, according to Rome, “is the best option for Iran’s economic stability.”

A new deal could free up $100 billion in frozen foreign reserves. It would allow Iran to sell much more oil at market prices. It would draw new trade and investment into the country.

That's a plus for Iran’s cash-poor government and for its long-suffering people. Without an agreement, Iran faces the indefinite extension of US sanctions, which might one day trigger public unrest that Iran’s security forces can’t contain.

Escalating tensions

The Biden administration — focused for now on COVID, domestic political headaches, inflation, China, and Vladimir Putin — is well aware that Iran’s willingness to talk may not offer hope for a breakthrough. US and European officials have said publicly that a deal must come within “weeks, not months.” That deadline could be extended, but only if genuine progress offers credible hope for an agreement.

In short, if there’s no deal by late spring, it will be time for all sides to brace for trouble. A breakdown of talks will persuade the Biden administration to squeeze Iran’s economy still harder. Iran could accumulate enough highly enriched uranium for several bombs, set more advanced centrifuges spinning, and advance closer to a nuclear weapon than ever before.

If so, warns Rome, Israel may be ready to come back off the sidelines “with cyberattacks and sabotage inside of Iran against military, economic, and nuclear sites, aimed at degrading Iranian capabilities and destabilizing the government.” Israel might also conduct military exercises that put the Middle East — and global oil markets — on edge.

The risk of military conflict, deliberate or accidental, can’t be ignored. In fact, Eurasia Group sets the likelihood of direct Israeli and/or US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2022 at 20 percent. Given the stakes, that’s a frighteningly high number.

Thank you to all our Signal readers who wrote in with your thoughts on the still-unraveling Djokovic/Australian Open scandal. Here are five responses we found interesting that we’d like to share with you.

"As for vaccinations, while not required, I would be in favor of significant restrictions for the unvaccinated. While it is their freedom of choice not to be vaccinated, this should come with the consequences necessary to protect those of us who have been vaccinated.” — Steve (Virginia, US)

"I'm a big fan of Djokovic and love watching his matches. He may be the best player ever hands down. And I respect his choice of not to vaccinate. But he has to accept the responsibility that his non-vax choice may limit his access to certain countries and events. Period.” — Jon Gates (Lake Oswego, Oregon, US)

"I do not share any of Mr. Djokovic's views, but he has the right to profess them. However, he does not have the right to violate the rules that the community has given itself.” — Gianfranco Pascazio (Milan, Italy)

“[The] treatment of Novak Djokovic is outrageous. Australia has fallen to tyranny and incompetence — this is what you should be highlighting.” — Tim (Cambridge, UK)

“Political principle does have a place in these considerations. One place among many. Consistency in applying principles is important. Allowing Djokovic into Australia while disallowing others, including Aussie citizens, would smack of favoritism and corruption. Perhaps the world will reach the point of removing entry barriers and allowing herd immunity to spread through contact with the virus. But at this time, such an allowance would flood hospitals and create a public health disaster. The Aussies were right to ban Djokovic." — Roman Kalyniuk (Evanston, Illinois, US)

US/NATO-Russia talks. Did this week’s flurry of high-level diplomacy in Europe make any significant progress to stop war in Ukraine? Depends on who you ask. The Russians say the talks were unsuccessful, insomuch as Washington has not agreed to the Kremlin’s demands for NATO to not further expand into former Soviet territory. What’s more, Moscow is now threatening to send Russian troops to Cuba and Venezuela — two of its allies in Washington’s own geographical sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere — if the Americans don’t cave. The US and NATO admit “significant differences” remain between both sides, but want to keep talking. Meanwhile, Poland has warned that the risk of war in Europe is the highest it’s been since the collapse of the USSR in 1991.

Nigeria ends Twitter ban. Nigerians are finally able to tweet again after the government ended an almost seven-month ban on the social media platform. Authorities say the app was reinstated after agreeing to open a local office, pay taxes, and coordinate with the government on policing hate speech and misinformation. Nigeria suspended Twitter in June 2021 after it deleted a controversial tweet by President Muhammadu Buhari for inciting violence against Biafran separatists. Twitter is nowhere near as popular in Nigeria as the Meta-owned platforms WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram, but the platform is influential among young Nigerians, who mostly used Twitter to mobilize the #EndSARS protests against police brutality in October 2020.

Is Boris Johnson done as British PM? Ian Bremmer says he'll like face a challenge from within his own party, in part to blame him for the economy later this year.

What's the state of play on global COVID fatigue? For Ian, that depends on where you live. Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa have always lived with the virus because they don't have vaccines, and then there's China with zero COVID.

And how will China's zero-COVID policy affect the Beijing Winter Olympics? Ian believes there's a non-negligible chance the Games get canceled because the approach may not hold up to omicron.

Watch this week's World In 60 Seconds here.

1. What percentage of Europeans “will be infected with omicron in the next six to eight weeks,” according to the WHO?

A. 10

B. 25

C. 50

2. As it faces an overwhelming omicron wave, India has just 17 active health workers per 10,000 people — far below the WHO-recommended minimum of…

A. 51.7 per 10,000 people

B. 44.5 per 10,000 people

C. 32 per 10,000 people

3. The Canadian province of Quebec will soon tax all adults who don't do this:

A. Speak French

B. Eat poutine

C. Get vaxxed

75: Around 75 percent of French primary school teachers participated in a strike this week against the government’s handling of the pandemic. The teacher's union says that President Emmanuel Macron is putting educators at risk by constantly changing safety standards and protocols amid the ballooning omicron wave.

153: A group of 153 Spanish doctors won a lawsuit against the regional government in Valencia over inadequate PPE supply during the early days of the pandemic. A judge awarded compensation ranging from 5,000 to 49,000 euros ($5,732-56,177) per plaintiff because health workers were only given one face mask a week and expected to reuse gowns.

45: Brazil’s former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would win 45 percent of the vote if the October presidential election were held today. According to a new survey, the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro would only get 23 percent.

500 million: The Biden administration will purchase an additional 500 million COVID tests to be distributed for free to Americans. Half a billion tests had already been purchased, but they won’t reach US households until later this month, which critics say is too little, too late.