|
Thank you for subscribing to the Southeast Asia Insider, showcasing the best of Asia Times’ latest reporting, commentary and analysis from across Southeast Asia.
This week’s edition includes:
|
|
Toys-for-the-boys
in Myanmar juntaland
In the midst of a deadly land-based civil war against ethnic insurgents in frontier areas and armed uprisings in urban areas, Myanmar’s ruling generals confounded many observers by procuring a big-ticket diesel-electric submarine from China, following the acquisition of a similar vessel from India.
Asia Times’ correspondent and renowned Myanmar expert Bertil Lintner believes the purchases aim to ensure the officer corps and rank-and-file remain loyal to the top brass, led by coup-maker Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. It is thus imperative for troops to believe they are part of a modern, well-equipped and world-class military – even if they’re not.
The optics of flexing the equipment are arguably as important as their strategic value, says Lintner, who wrote this week that the submarine deals make strategic sense for both China and India as suppliers seeking to build influence with Naypyidaw. He shared his thoughts on what may ultimately be symbolic naval acquisitions in this week’s Q&A.
Why is Myanmar's military procuring submarines when it faces a raging land-based insurgency?
It's a question of prestige. The generals want the officers and the rank-and-file to feel that they belong to a modern, world-class military that has everything from tanks, heavy artillery, missile systems, frigates, modern aircraft and now also submarines. That sense of pride is important in order to maintain the loyalty of the troops, especially now as civil war could threaten the unity of the armed forces, so it's "toys for the boys", so to speak.
But Myanmar also has a long coastline that has to be protected and in the past the navy was the most neglected of the three services. The emphasis was almost entirely on the infantry because of the civil war. The air force was also small but the few planes that it had in the past were used against rebels in ethnic frontier areas. All that began to change in the wake of a pro-democracy uprising in 1988, which sparked the possibility of splits in the armed forces. That was when the top military leadership first embarked on a worldwide shopping spree for more sophisticated military equipment.
How and why do big-ticket military equipment procurements promote loyalty among the rank-and-file?
It remains to be seen how that will play out. Will the rank-and-file be proud of the acquisition of all this new equipment, including but not confined to the submarines? Given the massive nationwide demonstrations and strikes that came in the wake of the last year’s February 1 coup, it could not possibly have escaped the generals’ attention that they have become the country's most hated institution.
|
|
|
But it is also important to remember the atrocities that the military is guilty of having committed for decades in the frontier areas and now also in the Myanmar heartland – and that applies to many private soldiers as well. The top leaders know full well that they are either in power or they are in jail, or worse. The rank-and-file may also fear that one day they may be held accountable for their crimes, including the killings of innocent civilians, the torching of villages, the looting of homes and the unspeakable acts of sexual violence. Fear is the glue that keeps the Myanmar military together.
Do you think the procurements and other defense spending have prevented cracks from forming in the military as criticism rises over its brutal crackdown on anti-coup groups?
For the time being, perhaps. But the longer the conflicts drag on, the angrier the general public will be with the military. In the most recent move, the military has threatened to punish everyone who takes part in the next "silent strike", which is scheduled for February 1. Those who do may face life imprisonment.
But those threats are a sign of military weakness, not strength. They feel threatened if the public does nothing for a day, a clear and potent popular expression of how unpopular the military is. The previous two "silent strikes" — on March 24 last year and then on December 10, which coincided with International Human Rights Day — meant that the entire country came to a standstill. Shops and stores were closed and streets were empty.
There is little or no chance that the top leadership would change their ways and listen to the people. But perhaps some of the foot soldiers might do exactly that, and if so then we are talking about a split in the military that could lead to a very bloody civil war.
|
|
|
By staging last year’s unpopular coup, the military has barricaded itself in a corner from where there appears to be no way out. There will be more violence of the kind that is tearing the country apart. And no amount of defense spending or toys-for-the-boys procurements is likely to change that.
|
|
|
Inflation stokes surprise monetary tightening in Singapore
Singapore's central bank slightly raised the rate of appreciation of its main currency band on January 25 in response to price pressures now being acutely felt elsewhere in Asia. The policy tightening by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), which manages monetary policy through exchange rate settings, will allow the local dollar to strengthen against peers to mitigate inflation. The move was announced a day after data showed core inflation in the city-state had climbed in December by the fastest pace in nearly eight years. MAS typically holds scheduled policy reviews twice a year, in April and October, and the latest unscheduled rate appreciation marks its first out-of-cycle move in seven years.
Indonesia and Singapore launch holiday travel bubble
After two years of a pandemic-included lull in tourism, quarantine-free travel resumed between Singapore and the popular Indonesian holiday islands of Bintan and Batam on January 24 as both countries gradually reopen their borders in line with endemic Covid-19 strategies. The two islands were popular weekend getaways for Singapore residents prior to the pandemic, but overseas visitors to both destinations reportedly slumped by 86% in 2020 and have yet to meaningfully recover. The travel bubble arrangement covers people traveling by sea and will be open to fully-vaccinated and insured visitors. Singapore and Jakarta have agreed to further discussions to expand air and sea travel more generally.
Vietnam eases entry curbs ahead of Lunar New Year
Authorities in Hanoi have eased restrictions on domestic travel and reentry procedures for foreign workers and an estimated 140,000 overseas Vietnamese ahead of Tet, the Lunar New Year holidays starting on January 29, as part of its endemic Covid-19 strategy following calls from business groups and tourism promotion bodies to fully reopen the economy. The relaxation of reentry procedures allows expatriates and their families who hold residence cards or visas to reenter the country without seeking prior approval from immigration authorities and comes despite still high five-digit daily caseloads in the country amid concerns over the highly transmissible Omicron variant.
Philippine economy performs better than expected
The Philippine economy charted 5.6% growth in 2021, beating performance estimates with 7.7% growth in the fourth quarter as loosened pandemic-related restrictions buoyed business activity. The acceleration was reportedly driven by increased household consumption, government expenditure and public construction. "The numbers for 2021 show an economy primed to break out," read a statement from President Rodrigo Duterte's economic team. Authorities in Manila say new Covid-19 variants and inflation pose risks to growth, but the economy is on track to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, with a target range of 7% to 9% gross domestic product (GDP) expansion projected.
Cambodia appeals to Myanmar to allow envoy visit Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen appealed in his capacity as chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing to allow a visit by the organization’s special envoy and support humanitarian aid access during a video call on January 26. The two held an in-person meeting earlier this month that caused some officials in neighboring countries to voice concerns that the trip risked being construed as an endorsement of the junta, which seized power from Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected civilian government nearly one year ago on February 1. According to reports, Cambodia's foreign ministry did not say how Min Aung Hlaing responded to the proposals.
|
|
|
|
|
Junta cyber bill has Myanmar business up in arms
Dominic Oo | January 28, 2022
Myanmar’s military junta has been criticized by business groups and foreign investors for resurrecting a proposed law that seeks to shut down social media platforms and undermine internet privacy by mandating data localization and criminalizing the use of Virtual Private Network (VPNs), moves that critics see as a step toward a North Korean censorship model.
|
|
|
|
How the US could counter China in Myanmar
Lucas Myers | January 28, 2022
China’s strategy towards post-coup Myanmar/had been carefully hedged and somewhat cautious, but Beijing is now shifting tack. Despite the continued escalation in fighting between armed rebels and the junta, and the risk that instability poses to Beijing’s interests, China is siding clearly with the military. That presents an opportunity for United States and its allies to counter China in the name of rights and democracy.
|
|
|
|
Myanmar junta in toys-for-the-boys weaponry splurge
Bertil Lintner | January 27, 2022
Submarines would seemingly be the last type of weapon the armed forces of a nation engulfed in an entirely land-based civil war would want or need. But Myanmar’s generals have recently acquired not just one but two diesel-electric submarines, procurements that have as much to do with diplomatic balancing as keeping the military’s rank-and-file loyal, proud and satisfied.
|
|
|
|
Southeast Asia’s roads more dangerous than Covid
David Hutt | January 26, 2022
With death tolls higher than Covid-19 fatalities, Southeast Asian roads are some of the most dangerous in the world. Across much of the region, road traffic accidents are the leading cause of deaths and injuries. Poor police enforcement of road violations, corruption and a lack of driving skills play a big part in the region’s high road toll.
|
|
|
|
Politics and Islam in potent new mix in Indonesia
John McBeth | January 26, 2022
A powerful factor in President Joko Widodo’s re-election victory in 2019, the mass Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) appears to be in the process of broadening its political base in a move that will likely give it an enduring influence over the 2024 presidential race and revive concerns over the group becoming too intertwined in politics.
|
|
|
|
US stepping up pressure on Beijing in South China Sea
Richard Javad Heydarian | January 26, 2022
Many leaders across Asia had feared the US may pull back on its strong approach to China after Donald Trump was voted out of office, but the opposite has happened. Washington and Beijing’s military rivalry in Asian waters has moved into overdrive with potentially destabilizing consequences for the region.
|
|
|
|
Widodo riding high as his legacy comes into view
John McBeth | January 24, 2022
Far from being relegated to lame-duck status, President Joko Widodo’s sustained popularity, built on a common man approach and a savvy political touch, has led to renewed calls among his ardent supporters for a three-year extension to his term. His endorsement could be a key factor when Indonesia goes to the polls in 2024 to elect a successor.
|
|
The Emergence of Global Maoism: China's Red Evangelism and the Cambodian Communist Movement, 1949–1979
By Matthew Galway
Cornell University Press, February 2022
The Emergence of Global Maoism examines the spread of Mao Zedong's writings, ideology, and institutions when they traveled outside of China. Author Matthew Galway links Chinese Communist Party (CCP) efforts to globalize Maoism to the dialectical engagement of exported Maoism by Cambodian Maoist intellectuals. How do ideas manifest outside of their place of origin? Galway analyzes how universal ideological systems became localized, both in Mao's indigenization of Marxism-Leninism and in the Communist Party of Kampuchea's (CPK) indigenization of Maoism into its own revolutionary ideology.
By examining the intellectual journeys of CPK leaders who, during their studies in Paris in the 1950s, became progressive activist-intellectuals and full-fledged Communists, he shows that they responded to political and socioeconomic crises by speaking back to Maoism – adapting it through practice and without abandoning its universality. Among Mao's greatest achievements, the Sinification of Marxism enabled the CCP to canonize Mao's thought and export it to a progressive audience of international intellectuals.
These intellectuals would come to embrace the ideology as they set a course for social change. The Emergence of Global Maoism illuminates the process through which China moved its goal from class revolution to a larger anti-colonial project that sought to cast out European and American imperialism from Asia.
|
|
|
|
WHAT WE’RE WORKING ON
Nile Bowie will assess whether Singapore’s monetary policy tightening is a sign of broader regional moves to combat inflation.
Bertil Lintner will examine the strategic significance of China’s rising port investments in Southeast Asia and beyond.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
