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Thank you for subscribing to the Southeast Asia Insider, showcasing the best of Asia Times’ latest reporting, commentary and analysis from across Southeast Asia.
This week’s edition includes:
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Indonesia spoiled for choice
as it mulls F-15 deal
Indonesia’s order of 42 Rafale fighter jets, a US$8.1 billion deal confirmed on February 10 by France's defense ministry, has made Jakarta the second biggest French military procurement client in Southeast Asia after Singapore. The big-ticket purchase has also highlighted Paris’ bid to strengthen its ties in the Indo-Pacific region.
After its submarine deal with Australia collapsed with the formation of the AUKUS trilateral alliance, observers say France has projected itself as an independent global power more forcefully, a posture that has complemented Jakarta’s desire to maintain its strategic independence as it seeks to modernize its military.
Hours after the deal with France was announced, the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency said it would approve Indonesia's request to buy F-15 aircraft. But Asia Times’ senior security correspondent Gabriel Honrada, who covered the Rafale fighter jet deal, isn’t sure the F-15 sale will go ahead. He explains why in this week’s Q&A.
How has France’s approach to Indo-Pacific relations changed following the establishment of the trilateral AUKUS alliance and where does Indonesia now fit into Paris’ strategic calculus?
France does not want to be left behind as an established global power after the establishment of AUKUS. They are the only European power with established interests in the Pacific, with New Caledonia, Wallis and Futuna, and French Polynesia being their territories in the region, with their interests focused on sovereignty, values, and diplomatic status.
As France cherishes its strategic autonomy, it is trying to build a network of defense partners independent of the US through engaging like-minded countries such as Indonesia. Indonesia’s decision to purchase Rafale jets from France establishes a tangible focal point of this defense partnership.
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Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto (left) meets his French counterpart Florence Parly at the French Defense Ministry in Paris, January 2021.
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France and Indonesia are both wary of being drawn by the US into an aggressive confrontation against China given their strategic partnerships with the latter, and they have concerns of being reduced into US subordinate dependents.
Could France’s Rafale fighter jet deal with Indonesia cajole the US into making its pricier F-15 procurement proposal more attractive for Jakarta, which is still emerging from a pandemic-induced recession?
The US’ offer of F-15 fighters to Indonesia could be seen as a deal sweetener to scale up US-Indonesia defense relations, given Indonesia’s de facto leadership role in Southeast Asia and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and its impeccable timing right after Indonesia’s decision to get Rafale jets from France. However, Indonesia may be wary of acquiring these jets from the US, as the US imposed an arms embargo on Indonesia in 1999 due to alleged human rights abuses in Papua New Guinea, which rendered its F-16 fleet inoperable. Clearly, Indonesia does not want a repeat incident, and this may have been its main reason for sticking to France for its fighter jet requirements.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is scheduled to visit Indonesia in March. I think this is part of the Biden Administration’s efforts to reassure US partners and allies after the Trump administration’s abrasive approach and the disastrous US withdrawal from Afghanistan. However, I expect more diplomatic and political reassurances than something concrete, possibly in the form of joint military exercises, which aim to shape Southeast Asian perceptions of the US as a reliable and committed partner as a form of insurance against China.
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Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto (right) meets with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Manama Dialogue in Bahrain, November 2021.
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Indonesia is on a military modernization program spurred on by China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea, with the archipelagic nation aiming to build a modern naval fleet and acquire aircraft to support that fleet. Will Jakarta also look to France to acquire submarines and warships?
As Indonesia already has a technology transfer agreement with South Korea for its Type 209 submarines, I doubt Indonesia will go for France’s Scorpene-class. Having multiple suppliers of military equipment poses potential interoperability concerns and requires multiple training and maintenance programs which may add to complexity and cost.
Also, Malaysia operates the Scorpene-class, and it has an ongoing maritime territorial dispute with Indonesia over Ambalat in the Celebes Sea, which is believed to have significant oil reserves. Indonesia and Malaysia have had naval standoffs in this disputed area. If Indonesia chooses to acquire Scorpene boats from France, then Malaysia will have first-hand knowledge on the type’s capabilities and limitations.
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ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting boycotted by Myanmar junta
Myanmar refused to send a nonpolitical representative to this week’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers' retreat after the ruling military junta publicly criticized the bloc’s members for insisting that its generals not be invited. Naypyidaw’s refusal to attend the summit is a setback for ASEAN's internationally-backed diplomatic effort to end a conflict that has killed more than a thousand civilians and displaced more than 300,000 people. Myanmar’s stance has cast further doubt on Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen’s strategy of diplomatic engagement with the junta, having little to show after his widely-criticized January 7 meeting with junta chief Min Aung Hlaing.
Singapore marks 80th anniversary of the Japanese invasion
Singaporeans this week held commemorative events marking the 80th anniversary of the fall of their island during World War II on February 15, 1942. Infamously described by Prime Minister Winston Churchill as “the worst disaster and largest capitulation in British history,” Japan’s victory resulted in an occupation lasting until 1945. Around 80,000 British, Indian and Australian soldiers surrendered to a Japanese force roughly half their size. While conducting a brutal war in mainland China, tens of thousands of mainly ethnic Chinese civilians in Singapore were massacred by Japanese soldiers during the occupation. Memorial services in the city-state were kept small and low-key due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Goldman Sachs’ bankers in courtroom drama over 1MDB
US prosecutors accused former Goldman Sachs banker Roger Ng of receiving US$35 million in kickbacks on February 14 as part of his involvement in the multibillion-dollar 1Malaysia Development Bhd (1MDB) scandal. His then boss, Tim Leissner, the bank’s former head of Southeast Asia, testified against Ng, saying he was Goldman's lead banker on 1MDB and had cultivated a relationship with fugitive Malaysian financier Low Taek Jho starting in 2008. Leissner in 2018 pleaded guilty to similar charges and agreed to cooperate with a US government probe into the scandal. Ng has pleaded not guilty and his lawyer accused Leissner of testifying against him to lighten his own sentence.
Cambodia pauses ‘internet gateway' plan due to Covid-19
A controversial plan to route all web traffic through a state-controlled "internet gateway" has reportedly been postponed by Cambodia's government after being slated to enter effect on February 16. Phnom Pehn's telecommunications ministry said the delay was due to “the disruption caused by the spreading of Covid-19." Activists and United Nations rights experts had called for a halt to the project amid fears it would be used to stifle online expression. The government has waived off criticism and denied that it would monitor and conduct surveillance of internet activity, claiming the gateway is needed to help thwart cyber crimes, illicit online gambling and internet scams.
Thailand downplays inflation as price pressures mount
Headline inflation in Thailand hit a nine-month high in January, topping market forecasts by climbing 3.23% year on year, above the range targeted by the kingdom’s central bank. Sethaput Suthiwartnaruepu, the governor of the Bank of Thailand, said this week that Inflation would largely be “contained” because the price pressures in the country are not as broad-based compared to some developed markets. He told CNBC that the overall inflation rate will remain within the central bank’s target range of between 1% to 3%. Economists, however, increasingly expect the bank to raise its policy rate sometime this year if headline inflation continues to stay above the target range.
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Malaysian economy grows, but pandemic risks remain
Nile Bowie | February 17, 2022
Malaysia’s economy is firmly in recovery territory with full-year growth for 2021 having expanded within the official forecast range at 3.1% after a rebound in the final quarter of last year. But Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy isn’t out of the woods as inflationary headwinds threaten to stymie growth-spurring private consumption.
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Myanmar junta’s role in Rohingya case at ICJ is troubling
Parvej Siddique Bhuiyan | February 17, 2022
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) recently announced that it will hold a fresh round of hearings from February 21-28 into the Rohingya genocide case. The court’s decision to hold new hearings has sparked speculation that the ICJ is implicitly taking a position legitimizing Myanmar’s current military regime as potential defendants.
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Blinken’s Indo-Pacific trip to reassure US allies
Richard Javad Heydarian | February 15, 2022
If there is one thing that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is best known for during his previous stint as a top national security official, it is his famous dictum, “superpowers don’t bluff.” Now America’s chief diplomat, Blinken is scrambling to reassure allies and strategic partners in the Indo-Pacific that America’s expressed commitment to the region is no bluffing matter.
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Indonesia leans to France’s Rafale over the US F-15
John McBeth | February 14, 2022
Once discovered standing before a family mirror pretending to be Charles de Gaulle, French-speaking Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto appears to have settled on France and its multi-role Dassault Rafale jet fighter as the future backbone of Indonesia’s frontline air defense force. Indonesia will be the first East Asian country to acquire the twin-engine, delta-wing Rafale.
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Australia’s shaky ‘southern anchor’ in push back on China
Hamish McDonald | February 13, 2022
Australia’s government has been pumping out announcements of advanced military asset acquisitions to face China’s rising strategic challenge – including nuclear-powered submarines, frigates, and hypersonic missiles – but their delivery is a decade or more away.
What the country is offering more immediately to Washington and its allies is a more mundane asset: real estate.
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China’s submarine diplomacy reaching deep and wide
Bertil Lintner | February 12, 2022
China’s delivery of two promised submarines to Thailand may never actually reach the kingdom as Germany refuses to sell related engines to China because the boats will be sold on to a third country. Export restrictions aside, the real reason could be that Germany, as well as Thailand, are becoming increasingly wary of China’s emerging new brand of submarine diplomacy.
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Capitalism Magic Thailand: Modernity with Enchantment
By Peter A. Jackson
ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, February 2022
By studying intersections among new cults of wealth, ritually empowered amulets and professional spirit mediumship – which have emerged together in Thailand’s dynamic religious field in recent decades – Capitalism Magic Thailand explores the conditions under which global modernity produces new varieties of enchantment.
In Thailand, novel and increasingly popular varieties of ritual now form a symbolic complex in which originally distinct cults centered on Indian deities, Chinese gods and Thai religious and royal figures have merged in commercial spaces and media sites to sacralize the market and wealth production. Emerging within popular culture, this complex of cults of wealth, amulets and spirit mediumship is supported by all levels of Thai society, including those at the acme of economic and political power. New theoretical frameworks are presented in analyses that challenge the view that magic is a residue of premodernity, placing the dramatic transformations of cultic ritual center stage in modern Thai history.
It is concluded that modern enchantment arises at the confluence of three processes: neoliberal capitalism’s production of occult economies, the auraticizing effects of technologies of mass mediatization, and the performative force of ritual in religious fields where practice takes precedence over doctrine.
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WHAT WE’RE WORKING ON
Bertil Lintner will delve into Myanmar junta’s failing scorched earth counterinsurgency strategy.
Anthony Davis will explain why insurgent United Wa State Army is an early winner of Myanmar’s new civil war.
Nile Bowie will unpack Singapore’s latest budget announcement amid unanswered questions about the city-state’s political succession.
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