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T H E
DUCK RIVER'S
NEWSLETTER
DUCK RIVER    JUNE 2022
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welcome back.
The appreciation speach.
Allow me to start by extending my heartfelt appreciation to each one of you for kindly setting aside some time out for busy schedules to grace me with your presence reading this. I know it has been a while since I've last given you this media update but
“In the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity.”
Albert Einstein
Therefore, I have decided that it was about time to be back.
Welcome back to the Duck River's Newsletter.
Out with the Old,
In with the New.



Antinha's latest photo gallery
in Antinha, Duck River Beira Baixa
Wallpaper for you phones.
tap to download. 
The news.
Why the UN Ocean Conference is a key step on the road to recovering ocean health.
By World Economic Forum  •  Updated: 27/06/2022
After a dry winter, how is Portugal learning to live with drought?
By euronews.green  •  Updated: 14/03/2022
Can gravity batteries solve our energy storage problems?
By BBC  •  Updated: 17/05/2022
Could nuclear desalination plants beat water scarcity?
By BBC News  •  Updated: 21/06/2022
War in Ukraine: Food security is on the agenda
By McKinsey & Company  •  Updated: 09/05/2022
Making Food Production More Sustainable - What Does It Mean?
By Forbes Technology Council  •  Updated: 16/03/2022
These are the countries best prepared for a Green Future.
By World Economic Forum  •  Updated: 08/04/2022
How COVID-19 is reshaping supply chains.
By McKinsey & Company  •  Updated: 09/05/2022
What is 'materials transition' and why is it critical for a net-zero future?
By World Economic Forum  •  Updated: 14/06/2022
50 years of Dia Mundial do Ambiente: what has changed?
By Diário de Notícias  •  Updated: 05/06/2022
The reason we're running out of farmers.
By BBC  •  Updated: 05/06/2022
Insights on
Sustainability.

Key insights from McKinsey's Global Energy Perspective 2022

1 | Governance
 
While governments and businesses are increasingly committed to steep decarbonization targets, energy markets face extreme volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and a rebound in energy demand. 

2 | Energy
 
Going forward, the energy mix is projected to shift toward power. By 2050, electricity and enabling hydrogen and synfuels could account for 50% of the energy mix.

3 | Industry
 
The projected peak in demand for fossil fuels continues to move forward; demand for oil is projected to peak in the next five years.

4 | Global
 
Even if all countries with net-zero commitments deliver on their aspirations, global warming is projected to reach 1.7°C by 2100.

5 | Markets
 
Total investments across energy sectors are projected to grow by more than 4% per annum and are projected to be increasingly skewed towards non-fossil and decarbonization technologies, while returns remain uncertain.
Read the full extent executive summary
Executive Summary Global Energy Perspective 2022
By McKinsey & Company  •  Updated: April 2022
Podcast
By World Economic Forum  •  Updated: June 2022

Six characteristics define the net-zero transition.

1 | Universal
 
Each of the seven major energy and land-use systems contributes substantially to emissions. Moreover, these systems are highly interdependent. For instance, electric vehicles lead to overall emissions reductions only to the extent that low-emissions electricity production has been achieved. More broadly, all sectors and geographies must play a role. Reaching net-zero emissions will thus require a universal transformation of the global economy.


All Carbon dioxide and methane emissions today come from seven energy and land-use systems.
Source: The net-zero transition: What it would cost, what it could bring by McKinsey

2 | Significant
 
The economic transformation needed to achieve the transition to net zero will be significant. Looking just at capital allocation, we find that annual spending on physical assets in the energy and land-use systems through 2050 would need to be about 60 percent greater than it is today. Accounting for expected increases in spending, as incomes and populations grow, as well as for currently legislated transition policies, the required increase in spending would be lower, but still about $1 trillion. We also see significant steep declines in demand for coal, oil, and gas production and an eventual virtual end to manufacturing of cars with internal combustion engines, as sales of zero-emissions alternatives (for example, battery-electric and fuel cell-electric vehicles) increase from 5% of new-vehicle sales in 2020 to virtually 100% by 2050.

3 | Front-loaded
 
Several aspects of the transition to net zero would be more significant in the early stages of the shift. Delivered cost of electricity could rise about 25% from 2020 levels until 2040 and still be about 20% higher in 2050, to build out renewable power assets and grid infrastructure. In the long run, it is conceivable that the delivered cost of electricity could be on par or potentially less than 2020 levels, because renewable's have a lower operating cost—provided that the power system can find ways to overcome the intermittency of renewable power and build flexible, reliable, low-cost grids. The up-front capital spending for the net-zero transition could also lower other operating costs over time for consumers. A key example of that is mobility. 

4 | Uneven
 
While universal, the economic exposure to the transition will not be uniform across sectors, geographies, and communities and individuals.

1st | Sectors that account for approximately 20% of GDP are most directly exposed to the transition; they have high levels of emissions in their operations (for example, steel and cement), and in the use of their products (for example, automobiles and fossil fuels). Many of these sectors would also incur cost increases as they decarbonize. For example, steel and cement production costs would rise by about 30% and 45%, respectively, by 2050, compared with today.

2nd | Lower-income countries or those with economies that depend heavily on fossil fuel resource-producing sectors would also be more exposed; for example, sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, India and some other Asian countries would require capital spending of about 10% or more of GDP, approximately 1,5 times more than the capital spending in other regions such as Europe, the United States, and Japan, and deploying the capital may be more challenging for these regions.

Finally | Within countries, certain communities could be more affected than others if their economies rely heavily on industries that have high levels of emissions or whose products are heavy emitters. By 2050 in the Net Zero 2050 scenario, demand for fossil fuel–based power jobs could be about 60% lower compared to today’s direct jobs related to operational activities due to the net-zero transition, while millions of new jobs could be created in the renewable sector. Any increase in costs or prices would affect lower-income households the most.

5 | Exposed to risks
 
Management of the transition to net zero will substantially influence outcomes. These risks range from the potential for increased physical climate risks if any transition is abrupt or delayed, to heightened labor market disruption in the event that the nature of any change is so abrupt that workers have insufficient time to adapt.
Large-scale asset-stranding is also a significant risk, if an abrupt transition means that even relatively new high-emissions assets are retired or replaced with low-emissions ones before their normal replacement cycles. Our analysis for stranded assets in the power sector suggests that about $2.1 trillion of assets could be prematurely retired or under-utilized in the net-zero scenario analyzed here between now and 2050.

One of the most immediate risks is that of a disorderly energy transition, if the ramp up of low-emissions activities does not take place fast enough to fill gaps left by the ramping down of high-emissions activities. That mismatch could potentially affect energy markets and the economy more broadly if energy supply and prices become volatile. This in turn could potentially create a backlash that delays the transition 
Note: Estimates based on Net Zero 2050 scenario, from the Network for Greening the Financial Systems, which limits warming to 1.5ºC, a hypothetical scenario, not a prediction or projection.
Source: The net-zero transition: What it would cost, what it could bring by McKinsey

6 | Rich in opportunity
 
Nations that have abundant natural capital, such as more hours of sunshine, or that invest in technological, human, and physical capital could well be positioned to prosper in the net-zero economy.
Companies could also gain from three categories of opportunity:
1st | Through decarbonizing processes and products, which can make them more cost-effective in some cases or tap into new markets for relatively lower-emissions products;
2nd | From entirely new low-carbon products and processes that replace established high-carbon options, for example carmakers meeting new demand for electric rather than ICE vehicles;
3rd | Through new offerings to support production in the first two categories. These could take the form of inputs such as lithium and cobalt for battery manufacturing, physical capital such as solar panels, and an array of technical services from forest management to financing to emissions measurement.

And the most significant benefit of the net-zero transition is that it will prevent the build-up of physical risks and reduce the odds of initiating the most catastrophic impacts of climate change.
Read the full extent executive summary
Executive Summary The net-zero transition: What it would cost, what it could bring
By McKinsey & Company  •  Updated: April 2022
Out with the Old,
In with the New.



Panasqueira's latest photo gallery
(Easy) Fast-reading Facts.
Did you know that agricultural innovation saves an extra continent?

Today, the world’s farmers grow nearly three times more cereals (280%) than in 1961. This was mainly achieved by producing more on the same land. Without innovation, an additional area of land the size of Europe and Mexico combined would have been needed to meet demand, destroying an estimated four times more forestry
Did you know hybrids make a Mojito?

Lime and mint are essential ingredients of a good Mojito, both of which are hybrids. Limes result from ancient hybrids produced in different parts of the world by combining citrus varieties such as citron, mandarin orange, pomelo with micrantha*, a wild citrus from the Philippines. As for mint, hybridization occurs naturally and there are many recognized hybrid species, all in the botanical genus Mentha. The number of species is estimated to be 13 to 24 distributed across all continents.
Did you know fungus can make wine tastier?

For most wine producers, fungal infections can be their worst enemy damaging grapes and reducing wine quality. However, since the 16th century, wine producers have used a naturally occurring fungus known as “noble rot” to enhance the fruity taste and aroma of renowned dessert wines. As European grapes are been harvested it’s interesting to note that since the 16th century, wine producers have used a naturally occurring fungus known as “noble rot” to help produce fine wines. It has the unique capacity to enhance the fruity taste and aroma of renowned dessert wines.However, for most wine producers, fungal infections can be their worst enemy, damaging grapes and reducing wine quality. For example, during 2021 in Champagne, powdery mildew fungus caused a 30% loss of harvest, in addition to a 30% loss previously caused by spring frosts.

Did you know plants help develop COVID-19 vaccines?

Recent innovations in plant biotechnology are making a critical contribution to the future of human health. These techniques have enabled scientists to use plants as “bio-factories” to produce antibodies against cancer and vaccines including for influenza, dengue and now COVID-19. This area of science is also used to help support the emergency need for diagnostic kits and antiviral drugs. Recent breakthroughs in plant sciences and biotechnology, including genome editing, will also be critical to enable rapid responses to future disease outbreaks and pandemics. 
Did you know 1 gram of seeds can produce 9 tons of tomatoes?

We all love eating tomatoes, but we rarely link them to agricultural innovation. Open-fields farmers could expect to harvest up to 4 kilograms of tomatoes per square metre. In modern greenhouses, yields can be increased to 80 kilograms per square metre. This is a 20-fold increase while using four times less water! This is possible with the use of innovative technologies and agricultural practices, including advanced plant breeding, pollination by bumblebees, remote sensors and controlled light and temperature. This illustrates how farmers can produce more with less, thereby contributing to achievement of the Farm2Fork Strategy’s objectives.
 
Did you know every 1ºC rise in temperature could increase insect pest pressure by up to 25%?

Crops produced in Europe could be significantly impacted by climate change. Higher temperatures could trigger migration of insects from warmer southern to  colder  northern  countries.  Insect  pests  already  reduce  staple  grain crops (wheat, rice, and maize)  by an estimated 5 to 20%. Further yield losses  due  to  increased  insect  pressure  could  increase  by  10  to  25%  per degree  Celsius  of  warming.  Such  a  reduction  in  yields  would  risk  food security, quality, and local food production, resulting in increased food prices.  To investigate potential impact on food security, scientists analysed the global movement of crop pests and concluded  that  geographical  shifts in direction varied with beetles, true bugs, moths and fungi moving to higher latitudes, whereas  viruses  and  soil  insects  shift to  lower  latitudes.
Did you know Nitrous Oxide gas is 265 times more greenhouse warming than CO2?
Nitrogen is essential for all living organisms. Its availability is one of the key factors determining agricultural productivity. Although nitrogen is present in large quantities in the air, it is not sufficiently available to crops. Farmers use fertilizers to make nitrogen available for their crops. However, nitrogen use efficiency is low as only about half the nitrogen applied through fertilizers is absorbed by crops. The rest remains in soil, leaches into ground and surface waters or is lost to the atmosphere as ammonia and/or nitrous oxide gas. 
In its Farm to Fork Strategy the EU Commission announced that it will act to reduce nutrient losses by at least 50% and the use of fertilizers by at least 20% by 2030. Innovative solutions have been developed which help reduce nitrogen losses. These include using nitrification inhibitors to reduce, for a certain period, the conversion of ammonium into nitrate and thus reduce the formation  of the powerful greenhouse gas: nitrous oxide. Ideally this technology should be combined with precision agriculture techniques to ensure that only exact amounts of fertilizers required by crops are applied to each part of the field. Scientific studies have demonstrated that use of nitrification inhibitors can reduce nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural systems by 44% and nitrate leaching by 47%.
Click to read more Facts.
On emergent issues.
FAQ's
1 
Why are negative emissions important?
 

Negative emissions aren’t a substitute for emissions reductions. The most important thing to do to tackle climate change is reduce emissions. But negative emissions do play a really important role alongside reducing emissions to help meet the aim of not letting temperatures rise above 1.5° over pre-industrial levels.

There are three reasons we need negative-emissions technologies:

1st | Is because of the damage we have inflicted upon the climate. Today, we are at something north of 500 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent. Pre-industrial, we were at 270. We’ve already put too much up there. The second
2nd | Reason is that we’re not turning the emissions taps off fast enough. It’s going to take us a while to transition to a zero-emissions or near-zero-emissions economy.
3rd | We’re never going to get those taps fully off. In very hard-to-abate sectors, such as agriculture, we’re going to need negative emissions to counterbalance the emissions that will continue at some level in the foreseeable future.

Want a short video to explain it better?
Click on the picture above to watch it.

 
2 
What drives gasoline prices?

According to the EIA, there are four main factors that influence the price of gas:

1. Crude oil prices (54%)
2. Refining costs (14%)
3. Taxes (16%)
4. Distribution, and marketing costs (16%)

More than half the cost of filling your tank is influenced by the price of crude oil. Meanwhile, the rest of the price at the pump is split fairly equally between refining costs, marketing and distribution, and taxes.

Want more detail on this? Click here.


How does the Russia-Ukraine conflict impact U.S. gas prices?

If only a fraction of America’s oil comes from Russia, why is the Russia-Ukraine conflict impacting prices in the U.S.?

Because oil is bought and sold on a global commodities market. So, when countries imposed sanctions on Russian oil, that put a squeeze on global supply, which ultimately drove up prices. This supply shock could keep prices high for a while unless the U.S. falls into a recession, which is a growing possibility based on how recent data is trending.

On emergent issues.
Reports
Videos

| Financial Times Food Revolution
Can we avoid climate-related food shocks?
Ukraine have thrown the vulnerability of supply chains, and with them, food supplies, into sharp focus. But as the FT’s Camilla Hodgson reports, a landmark UN report says climate-related shocks such as extreme weather events will become more common and severe and could further upend food supply chains. But what can we do about it?
 
BBC | Follow The Food Series 3 Ep 6
The endangered food list
Supply chains, climate change and population growth.
Farmers, scientists and innovators growing food today.
Spoiler alert: Lisbon and Porto are in it. 
 
BBC | Follow The Food Series 3 Ep 5
Future Farms
See an Indoor farm in Ohio producing 2 million pounds of lettuce each year.
See how strawberries are harvested, by machine, in California.
See how a small corn grower, in Kenya, uses satellite imaging to manage and harvest her crop each year.
 
| CNBC
Money Is Pouring Into Carbon Capture Tech, But Challenges Remain  
Elon Musk, Microsoft and oil giants like Occidental and Exxon Mobil are investing in carbon capture technologies. Carbon Engineering and Climeworks are two start-ups that have built machines to suck CO2 straight out of the atmosphere in a process known as direct air capture. But the technology faces a number of challenges, one of which is that there’s currently no market for the captured CO2. As a result, some companies are selling their captured CO2 to oil companies, which use it to produce even more oil.
 
| CNBC
Can Amazon Compete With SpaceX In The Satellite Internet Business?  
Project Kuiper is Amazon’s plan to deliver internet from space using 3,236 small satellites in low Earth orbit. It’s seen as a direct competitor to Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet venture. Starlink already has about 2,000 satellites in orbit, serving about 250,000 total subscribers, but the FCC has approved SpaceX to launch a total of 12,000 satellites. Amazon has yet to launch any, but did sign a multibillion-dollar contract with three rocket companies to send its satellites to space.

Business Insider
Why Pine Nuts Are So Expensive?
Pine nuts have long been desired for their unique flavor, use in traditional recipes, and health benefits. They're also one of the most expensive nuts in the world, selling for upwards of $117 per kilogram. So what makes them so special? And why are they so expensive?
Weather Forecast
L A D O E I R O
F E R R E I R A   DO  L E N T E J O
And that's it.

See you soon.


 
DUCK RIVER    JUNE 2022
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