This week's helpful idea:


How confident should you be in a decision before acting? Very rough rules of thumb:

1. Minor decisions, ~60%

2. Easily-reversible big decisions, ~75%

3. Hard-to-reverse big decisions, >90%

Don’t overthink small decisions or under-think/under-research big, irreversible ones. 


This week's question for you:

Who, in your opinion (that you're aware of existing) is the smartest person alive today (or as close to it as one can get given the partially subjective nature of intelligence)?

You can read other people's answers or join the ongoing discussion about this question on Twitter or Facebook. 


Here is the newest Clearer Thinking podcast episode for you:

Why it's so hard to have confidence that charities are doing good (with Elie Hassenfeld)


Lastly, here's an essay that I recently put up on my website that you may find valuable: 

Twelve Recursive Explanations


Until next week!

Spencer Greenberg