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IPCC: Emissions cuts needed to stay below 2°C warming are possible but we must act now
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By Dr Joe Milton, the Australian Science Media Centre
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This week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the third part of its sixth assessment report, which deals with climate change mitigation. Four of the Australian authors joined an AusSMC Briefing on Monday to discuss the findings with journalists.
Professor Tommy Wiedmann from UNSW, who was a lead author of the report's chapter on emissions trends and drivers, told journalists at the briefing that keeping warming below 1.5°C, the most ambitious goal of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, can no longer be achieved.
"Emissions from existing and planned fossil-fuel infrastructure alone are higher than those consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C," he said.
Although that is bad news, Prof Wiedmann said limiting warming to below 2°C is still very much achievable, although this will require "transformational change …practically in every sector and in every region".
"Greenhouse gas emissions can be halved by 2030, which is what we need," he said
Professor Frank Jotzo from ANU, a lead author of the 'National and sub-national policies and institutions' chapter of the report, said that while the need for action is now more urgent than ever, "the opportunity to reduce emissions at affordable costs is also greater than previously assessed".
Since 2010, the global cost of solar power has fallen by 85 per cent, wind power by 55 per cent, and lithium-ion batteries by 85 per cent, according to Prof Jotzo, making the switch from fossil fuels less economically damaging than we once thought it might be.
Curtin University's Distinguished Professor Peter Newman, a co-ordinating lead author on the transport chapter of the report, agreed. "The solutions are now economically attractive – they aren’t a matter of completely denying the economy," he said.
Prof Newman added that electrifying the transport sector would be relatively straightforward: "It’s quite clear that big trucks and big trains can also use batteries," he said.
However, cutting emissions alone is unlikely to be sufficient to limit warming to below 2°C, according to Dr Annette Cowie from the NSW Government Department of Primary Industries and the University of New England.
"In order to reduce our emissions and then meet net zero, we're also going to need to deploy carbon dioxide removal strategies...Our report assessed 12 different...strategies," she said.
Dr Cowie added that these do not have to be complicated, technology-based fixes: "The land can host methods that are quite mature, very familiar, like tree planting or building soil carbon, and also the emerging method of biochar," she said.
The more technical methods of CO2 removal, such as direct air carbon capture and storage, are "less mature", she added.
Prof Jotzo said Australia should view the transition to net-zero emissions as an opportunity rather than an obstacle.
"Australia has plenty of opportunities right across the spectrum - renewable energy, decarbonising industry, carbon uptake on the land, you name it," he said.
"And that includes, of course, the potential for Australia to be an exporter of zero-carbon commodities and thereby help decarbonisation in other countries."
You can listen to the AusSMC Briefing here
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This article originally appeared in Science Deadline, a weekly newsletter from the AusSMC. You are free to republish this story, in full, with appropriate credit.
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"It’s absolutely bonkers...This really should not exist and it’s absolutely gobsmackingly beautiful"
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Wherever we're from in the world we like the same smells, and vanilla is the best (Current Biology)
Culturally diverse people around the world like and dislike the same kinds of smells, and vanilla is consistently rated the most pleasant, according to international scientists, including an Australian. The least pleasant smell was isovaleric acid, found in many foods, such as cheese, soy milk and apple juice, but also in foot sweat. The researchers tested smell preferences in 235 people, including westerners and representatives of hunter-gatherer lifestyles and farming and fishing communities. The smells we like or dislike are partly determined by personal preference, but also by the structure of the particular odour molecule, the scientists say. Some smells are perceived as more pleasant than others regardless of culture because liking and disliking odours increased the chances of survival during human evolution.
Example coverage: Network 10 - The World’s Best Smell Has Been Revealed As... Vanilla
New insights into the genetic causes of Alzheimer's and other dementias (Nature Genetics)
International scientists, including Australians, have identified 42 new areas of DNA that are linked to the risk of developing Alzheimer's Disease and other dementias, as well as confirming the existence of 33 areas of DNA previously thought to be involved. Some of these DNA areas are related to the production of a pair of proteins implicated in Alzheimer's Disease, amyloid-beta, and tau. The scientists used their findings to refine a previously existing 'genetic risk score', which can predict a person's risk of developing Alzheimer's or other dementias based on their genetics.
Example coverage: The Guardian - Alzheimer’s study finds 42 more genes linked to higher risk of disease
Expectant fathers may also need some help with their bellies (Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health)
New research amongst expectant fathers in Western Australia shows that despite being a younger group, they had similar rates of overweight and obesity to the national average but reported fewer unhealthy lifestyle behaviours like smoking and alcohol consumption.
Example coverage: ABC - Expectant dads' diet during pregnancy has lasting impact on future health of unborn child, study finds
RNA based treatment lowers levels of dangerous cholesterol carrying protein (JAMA)
An RNA based treatment can help lower levels of lipoprotein A, a cholesterol carrying protein that increases your risk of heart attacks and strokes, according to the results of a trial conducted in Australia, the US, and United Kingdom. Reducing the levels of this protein could help prevent blockages from forming in blood vessels, but unlike cholesterol, it is not something you can reduce with diet and lifestyle choices. This world first human trial used a type of RNA, called siRNA or small interfering RNA, to stop the protein from being made in the first place. At 150 days after a single injection, the levels of lipoprotein A in 32 patients were reduced by between 46 and 98 per cent, depending on the dose of treatment. The authors say the findings support further trials on the safety and efficacy of this siRNA.
Example coverage: Daily Mail - Now Covid jab technology can cut your cholesterol! Scientists are using RNA therapies to develop new treatments for some genetic diseases
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This week, we joined Andy Park on ABC Radio National Drive to talk about chatty mushrooms, an electronic nose that can spot fake whisky, and touchy-feely robot skin.
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