The Covid-19 pandemic affected many aspects of our lives, including where we live. Data released last week by the U.S. Census Bureau suggest migration was the strongest driver of regional population change during the first 15 months of the pandemic, and that more people chose to live in areas farther from our region's urban core.
The U.S. Census Bureau population estimates provide a first look at how NYC and the NYC metropolitan region changed during the pandemic. Because the pandemic is ongoing, and because these figures are annual estimates prepared in the decade between census releases, it is important to remember that they are still very early indicators, and that some of the numbers may reflect temporary population shifts. Here's what we know:
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Covid-19 and 2021 NYC Metro
Population Trends
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As of July 2021, the NYC Metro's estimated population was 23.2 million, down 1.6% from April 2020.
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As of July 1, 2021 the U.S. Census Bureau estimated the NYC Metro population to be 23,177,977, 1.6% less than the April 1, 2020 Census enumeration. 92% of the NYC Metro’s net loss of 366,046 people is accounted for by a 3.8% decline in NYC’s population. The Inner New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, and Long Island subregions also lost population. During the same 15-month period, the Outer New Jersey and Mid Hudson Valley subregions grew, and at rates significantly faster than the U.S. average.
For an in-depth analysis of NYC, please refer to the NYC DCP’s latest report on the 2021 population estimates.
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NYC and surrounding counties lost population during the pandemic, while counties farther from the core mostly grew.
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Manhattan’s population declined by 7%, or 117,375 people, since April 1, 2020, representing 32% of the region’s population loss as a whole. Counties with higher average population densities (i.e., 2,000+ people per square mile), most of which are adjacent to NYC, experienced higher rates of population decline. This includes Nassau and Westchester, the only New York State counties in the region to lose population since 2020.
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Though the pandemic likely induced population losses in NYC and adjacent areas, it did not undo the growth of prior decades.
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Population losses in the NYC Metro were not significant enough to offset region-wide growth over the previous decade. NYC’s 2021 estimate still represents a 3.6% increase over the 2010 Census enumeration. Despite population losses since 2020, Inner NJ’s 6.7% growth since 2010 is still the highest among NYC Metro subregions.
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In 2021, shifts in migration were a more substantial driver of population change than in recent years.
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Population changes result from both natural increase (the difference between births and deaths) and net migration (the difference between people moving in versus out). Compared to pre-Covid trends1, NYC and Inner NJ saw significantly increased levels of negative net migration in 2021. Connecticut and the Mid Hudson Valley flipped from negative net migration to positive net migration, as more people moved in than out. On Long Island the pre-Covid trend of negative net migration was halted as inflows and outflows were nearly equal in 2021.
In 2021, natural increase declined throughout the NYC Metro due to a fewer number of births and a greater number of deaths. Outer NJ, Long Island and Connecticut experienced natural decrease, meaning deaths outnumbered births, a significant departure from recent years.
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Shifts in domestic migration drove the largest share of change in 2021 and were compounded by declines in international in-migration.
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Net migration is broken down into two components: domestic and international. More people moving from NYC to other parts of the U.S. in 2021 resulted in greater domestic out-migration. On Long Island, decreased net domestic out-migration helped to reduce overall population loss. In Outer NJ, the Mid Hudson Valley, and Connecticut, substantial growth in net domestic in-migration supported overall population growth.
Net international migration continued to decline throughout the NYC Metro, a trend rooted in federal policy and restrictions on in-migration during the pandemic. This decline especially impacted overall migration totals in the Lower Hudson Valley and Inner NJ.
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Though NYC Metro counties saw positive domestic migration in 2021, the shift does not suggest that the relationship between NYC and the suburbs has substantially changed.
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In 2021, many NYC Metro counties in exurban and rural parts of the region experienced a shift from net out-migration to net in-migration. This includes most of the Mid Hudson Valley and Outer NJ, but also counties like Fairfield, CT and Suffolk on Long Island. Most of these gains were relatively small in scale. Ocean County, NJ experienced the largest net positive domestic in-migration in 2021, approximately 9,400 people.
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Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, about one-third of net migrants from NYC moved to the surrounding region2. In 2021, NYC experienced considerably greater net domestic out-migration: 217,000 more people left (or failed to move to) NYC. The rest of the metro region, however, saw an increase of just 34,000 net domestic in-migrants3. While we cannot know from the most recent data release where NYC leavers have moved to, we can infer from the pandemic's well-documented effect on the region's housing market that increased demand and an extremely limited supply continues to make relocating within the metro region more difficult than relocating to other parts of the United States.
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1. Years represented in the components of change analyses represent the year-on-year change in natural increase and migration measured from July 1 to July 1 and not the calendar year. Therefore 2021 represents the difference between July 1, 2020 and July 1, 2021 and does not capture the latter half of 2021.
2. DCP Analysis of IPUMS-USA data, prepared by the University of Minnesota, reflecting the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 2019
3. Because origin and destination are not known, solely the net effect, there may be some increased number of NYC residents moving to and area residents moving from the suburbs, and therefore an increased number of suburban residents leaving the region. It is unlikely that this trend at scale would account for the majority of the difference in 2021 between NYC and rest of NYC Metro net migration, and significantly depart from historic trends, given no significant change in the housing market, and evidence supplied by U.S. Postal Service change-of-address data.
The data analyzed for this analysis were sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program Vintage 2021 and Vintage 2020. Please note that the Census Bureau’s methodology is not robust enough to precisely quantify the magnitude of year-to-year changes, irrespective of the effects of the pandemic. For more information about this data product and the Census Bureau’s methodology, please refer to NYC DCP’s recent report.
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Have questions or want to connect about our research? Email us.
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Planning News from the Region
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New York City recently released its second Comprehensive Waterfront Plan. The 10-year plan starts from the principle that all New Yorkers should live, work, and plan in a safe and healthy environment.
New York City Mayor Eric Adams recently announced a framework for NYC’s recovery and its future economic vitality. Called “Rebuild, Renew, Reinvent: A Blueprint for New York City’s Economic Recovery”, the plan aims to accelerate recovery and build a more resilient economy.
The Regional Plan Association turns 100 years old in 2022. This CityLab article surveys its history and evolution. We particularly appreciate the selection of maps and related content.
In the wake of Governor Hochul’s efforts, a debate continues over what measures might best support the state’s overall housing stock. This New York Times op-ed provides a broad overview of that debate, but you can also read about what leaders from Westchester, Long Island, and across the state are saying on the issue.
Lakewood is New Jersey’s second fastest growing city. It’s also home to one of the most significant Jewish populations in the United States. For more on the Ocean County town, the planned expansion of its airport, and its efforts to attract new businesses, check out this article.
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What We're Thinking About
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Equitable Development in NYC
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The City of New York is committed to promoting fair housing and equitable development. In an effort to better equip residents with information that can facilitate challenging conversations about housing affordability, racial equity, displacement, and other issues related to fairness, the city is creating the Equitable Development Data Tool, an online interactive resource. You can learn more about the tool from the video above or see interactive mockups of the tool that have been created for demonstration purposes here.
If these and related issues are of interest, don’t forget to bookmark the Explorer on your browser.
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Upcoming Planning Events
Across the Region
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The Future of NYC: Charting an Equitable Recovery for All
New York Federal Reserve
Thursday March 31, 2022
12:30pm (virtual)
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Have an event to highlight? Let us know by replying to this email address.
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