Hello!

No news this week. Enjoy the posts! 

— Lizka (for the EA Forum team)

We recommend:

1. Dan Luu: Futurist prediction methods and accuracy (link-posted by Linch)
2. Optimizing seed:pollen ratio to spread ideas (Holly Elmore, 8 min)
3. Forecasting thread: How does AI risk level vary based on timelines? (Eli Lifland, 1 min) 
4. Case Rates to Sequencing Reads (Jeff Kaufman, 5 min)
5. The Pugwash Conferences and the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty as a case study of Track II diplomacy (Rani Martin, 30 min)
6. Roodman's Thoughts on Biological Anchors (link-posted by lukeprog)
7. "Doing Good Best" isn't the EA ideal (David Manheim, 8 min)
8. Levels of donation (vipulnaik, 13 min)
9. The Next EA Global Should Have Safe Air (joshcmorrison, 2 min)
10. Pathways to victory: How can we end animal agriculture? (Animal Ask, Max Carpendale, 72 min)
11. Founders Pledge: how we use (and sometimes don't use) DALYs (link-posted by Rosie Bettle)
12. Criticism of the 80k job board listing strategy (Yonatan Cale, 3 min)

Announcements:

1. Announcing EA Pulse, large monthly US surveys on EA (David Moss, Jamie Elsey)
2. Quantified Intuitions: An epistemics training website including a new EA-themed calibration app (Sage)
3. Prizes for changing our minds about who to fund (Clearer Thinking Regrants Forecasting Tournament) (spencerg)
4. Prize and fast track to alignment research at ALTER  (Vanessa)
5. Rational Animations' Script Writing Contest (Writer)
6. Announcing the NYU Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program (Sofia Fogel)

Classic Forum post:

• Learning By Writing (Holden Karnofsky)