I invite you to take a look at a video discussing just what state benchmarks for reopening schools mean: https://youtu.be/h4_vx1bDHTw

States are coming out with benchmarks and guidelines for school reopenings. Most of those talk about “safely” holding in-person classes. They say a lot about case rates and trends and hospitalizations and the like, but for most people those numbers are meaningless. When I think of “safety” I’m more interested in questions like, “How many people are likely to get sick and die?”

I’m a numbers guy. I understand about the complexity and uncertainties and why questions like that are hard to answer. But if you look at what we do know, you can say with great confidence that most of those benchmarks fall absurdly short of what is needed for a safe return to schools.  That experiment has been done elsewhere. In Israel, where case rates had been reduced to less than 1% of what the U.S. is experiencing, they thought that surely they could tell kids to wear masks and then open back up. That decision was directly responsible for one of the worst outbreaks on the planet.

Why would we imagine our experience will be different?  In fact, just a week after some districts started to open we are already seeing signs of the same thing happening here. Two to three weeks is the magic number for when cracks will start appearing after a district reopens. And by the time you see cracks, the reality is that the floodgates are already open.

I would call these “Safety benchmarks” laughable if they weren’t so tragic. If we really do this — as it looks like many places will — we will pay an extremely high price in deaths and destroyed lives. All so that we can close down again and find ourselves back in crisis mode.

These guidelines (which are rooted in politics to a far greater extent than science) are worse than useless because they promise “safety.”  That is a promise they absolutely cannot keep. But school boards, teachers, parents, students, and communities won't realize the promise was empty until it is too late.  

In the title I call these guidelines “absurdities.”  The better term would be “atrocities.”

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After a career in astrophysics I turned my eye to helping people and organizations find success in the face of rapid change. Reach out and we can explore possibilities.  You can follow my thoughts on Facebook, youTube, and at http://www.jeff-hester.com.